Thursday, July 31, 2008

Weak economy hurts stocks

Dow is down 54, advancers & decliners were about even & NAZ is up 18. The top news story causing stocks to slide was GDP in Q2 grew at a 2.1% annual rate prices, below 0.9% in Q1 & compares with an average forecast of 2.4%. In Q2, the economy was helped by tax rebates which largely went to pay for higher food & gas prices. The Commerce Dept also revised the rate in Q4 2007 to negative (it takes 2 consecutive qtrs to signify a recession). The number of applications for jobless benefits soared by 44K to 448K last week, a 5 year high. The Labor Dept said the increase was influenced by an outreach program they started, informing people they were eligible for filing. But it remains a large increase & when 400K is considered a recession kind of number, paints a gloomy picture.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), a Dow stock, reported record profits reaching almost $12B. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), similar size to Exxon - whopper, reported similar profits but each declined 2-3. Tough to buy friends these days when you're so big. Speaking of oil, it slipped back 1 to under 126. The Alerian MLP index dropped 1 to 271. It has pretty much been under 275 this month, just bobbing around following moves in oil stocks & prices. Banks & REITs were down, but bounced back to little changed. Being the last day of the month, evening out positions could produce volatile swings. Meanwhile, assessing the GDP & jobless data will give analysts something to do.

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