Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Banks punished

Dow dropped 140, decliners over advancers 2-1 but NAZ was down only 9. Volume continues low at 1.1B. JP Morgan (JPM), a Dow stock, fell 4.20 on very bad news about losing $1½B already in this quarter. UBS (UBS), the big Swiss bank, fell 6%, on more gloomy news about not knowing what it was doing. Their investment write-downs will cost another $5B bringing the total to $42B. Wells Fargo (WFC), down 1.23, got slammed with just embarrassing news. It was one of those days for banks & they were punished badly, leading markets lower:

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 284.01__ Change -15.56___ % Change -5.2%

JPM is the most serious story. They had been one of the best performing major banks with a high of 50 in the last 12 months. They were getting by without severe damage other banks endured, even after today they're 38. Today's sell-off suggests that ugly credit crisis/banks problems are not over or even ending soon.

Oil was down while fighting goes on in Georgia. A few weeks ago, this fighting could have added $10 to oil. Today, as with other bad news, is largely ignored in oil markets:

CLU08.NYM
Crude Oil Sep 08 113.22 Down 1.23 (1.07%)

Oil is driven more by the weak dollar. The dollar was risen sharply while oil & other commodities were declining in recent weeks. The Euro has fallen to 1.49 (down 10¢) in recent weeks while it takes more than 109¥ to buy a dollar. The strong dollar helps their economies export more (vital for Japan) but muddies the investment picture here. Strong dollar has brought a strong stock market, there is a connection. The Shanghai market sold off 10% in the first 2 trading days of the Olympics & slipped a little more today to a 20 month low. They are not getting benefits from the Olympics.

Tomorrow US retail sales, hang in there. This is the kind of day I'll leave you with glum forecast from the Philly FED.

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