Monday, August 4, 2008

Dreary Monday

The negative tone to Asian trading carried into the US. Dow is down 11 (recovering from down 80 when I first began writing), decliners ahead of advancers 5-2 and NAZ is down 14. There's just no way to hide the macro economic news is not pretty. Consumer spending fell 0.2% in June excluding inflation. Their measurement of inflation was 0.8%, highest since a 1% increase in Feb. This is the same news reported before, rebate tax checks went to pay for higher food & fuel prices. Commerce Dept reported factory orders increased 1.7% in June, best showing this year (from higher petroleum prices & military orders). Good news, but not really so good after thinking about it. Oil prices fell 1 to the 124s, had been in the 120s earlier, lowest in a couple of months. Once again, good news but 120 remains a painful price for the economy. The FED is widely expected to leave rates alone at their meeting this week after having to deal with various stagflation kind of forces.

HSBC (HSC), Europe's largest bank, reported sharply lower earnings for H1 (that's how they report), stock down 1.28. Their biggest problem was North America & in that area: Household Intl which lends to consumers. Speaking of earnings, Bloomberg TV had an analyst from S&P talking about earnings which are largely in. They tend to be very good or very, very bad, not much in the middle. Excluding banks/financials, earnings are up. Taking out GM & Ford, earnings gains are impressive. What he didn't mention is that on the margin, business outside the US probably is responsible for much of those gains.

No comments: