Thursday, August 14, 2008

High inflation & jobless claims, but stocks up

After starting off lower Dow is up 68, advancers ahead of by 40% & NAZ is up 17. Inflation rose 0.8% last month, double the forecasts. Core inflation was up 0.3%, beating 0.2% expectations. The number of home foreclosure notices increased 55% over last year & were ahead of the June numbers. The Euro economy shrank 0.2% in Q2, they're also feeling the effects of higher food & gas prices. No economy is in a recession, but that word is on everybody's minds going forward. The Labor Dept reported jobless claims fell 10K last week to 440K, a smaller drop than expected. The 4 week average rose 19½K to 440½K. Oil is down a few cents in the 115s after yesterday's oil & gas inventory report. Macro economic numbers remain gloomy.

Wal-Mart (WMT), a Dow stock, reported profits from continuing operations rose 9% in Q2, the stock slipped back pennies. In Q2, same store sales increased 4.5% (vs 1.9% last year) but growth should slow to 1-2% in Q3. Intl sales rose 19% while US sales were up 8%.

Dow Jones Industrials - YTD




The graph shows Dow, kicking around the 12Ks early in the year, fell to the 11Ks over the last 2 months. Not a pretty chart.

While macro economic news continues dreary, the inflation picture should ease a little as the decline in commodity prices works thru to inflation numbers. Inflation will remain worrisome with housing, auto, retail sales, credit problems, etc. dragging on.

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