Thursday, December 11, 2008

Markets waver before Senate vote on GM

Out of the gate this AM, Dow dropped 100, but pulled back to a modest loss. Uncertainty about the Big 3 has everybody worried. Dow is up 2, advancers 10% ahead of decliners & NAZ is down 3. Banks are weak on the nervousness out there, S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX is down 6 to 167.

The Alerian MLP Index is up 1, probably related to strength for oil (even though they do not benefit from higher priced oil). The strength in oil is on expectation that the OPEC meeting next week will call for another cut in production.

CLF09.NYM..Crude Oil Jan 09...47.20 Up ..3.68
......(8.5%)



Other indices are weak. REITS are off 4%, Lehman High Yield Bond ETF is down 10¢ but the VIX is also down (1 to under 55).

Unemployment news continues dreary. Claims last week shot to 573K, 10% above estimates. This is the highest level in 26 years (another bleak time). 4.4MM are collecting unemployment checks. Among the many companies laying off, Stanley Works (SWK), an S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat which has paid annual divs for over 100 years, is laying off 2K (SWK is included in my Yahoo widget on the right).

New Unemployment Claims Surge to 26-year High- AP


The possible failure of General Motors (GM), still a Dow stock, has many nervous. Suppliers do not want to wait 45 days for payment, but cash strapped GM is not willing to speed up payments. Just another worry for markets to assess.

GM's Time Is Running Short as Senate Debates Rescue, Vendors Seek Payment


With interest rates on Treasuries near or at zero, there is recognition that this may be the top of a bubble. Treasuries bonds have had an enormous rally, especially in the last 3 months. The same Treasury will have to borrow $Bs next year to finance a huge rescue package, that won't be at zero interest. But nobody is sure how bursting the bubble will play out.

Treasury Market Bubble Talk Grows Louder as Investors Give U.S. Free Money
Dollar Money-Market Rates Fall to Lowest Level Since 2004 on Fed Rate Cuts


The auto $14B bailout package is being held up in the Senate while the clock is ticking on GM's survival. Arms of certain senators will be twisted & they will get political favors for their votes as nail biting continues.

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