Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Stocks up on very light volume

Dow is up 69, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ is up 18, all on very low volume. When volume is low, it's hard to draw a lot significance from price movements. Oil pulled back below the important 40 line on the usual assortment of worries.

CLG09.NYMCrude Oil Feb 0939.03 Down 0.99 (2.47%)


Consumer confidence dropped to a record low of 38 in Dec, down from 44.7 in Nov. Continued dreary economic news & higher levels of unemployment are weighing down the public. To combat the negative sentiment, stores after marking down merchandise, are trying to figure out how to share these discounts with suppliers. No secret, they have different ideas about absorbing losses. The sales figures are in, same store retail sales (stores open more than 1 year) declined 1.8% last week (the worst showing in 5 years). As bad as these numbers are, the next month should be even worse when the seasonal factor is combined with a major recession.

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Drops to Record Low as Unemployment Increases
Saks, Macy's Discounts Spark Spat With Vendors After Holiday Sales Debacle
U.S. Weekly Retail Sales Fall Most Since 2003 as Christmas Discounts Fail


The Treasury gave GMAC $5B in financing, after GMAC was converted to a bank last week. General Motors (GM), still a Dow stock, rose 23¢ (or 6% if you prefer) on the good news. GM is also offering up to 0% financing this week to boost sagging sales.

After all the markets have been thru in the last few months, light volume in sluggish markets provides an excellent opportunity to look for bargain stocks. Johnson & Johnson, a Dow stock & S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat, is down to 58 from the 70s a few months ago. They haven't sold off as badly as others indicating markets have more confidence about their future & a 3+% dividend yield (higher than the Treasury bond yield) is a nice bonus.

No comments: