Friday, March 27, 2009

Profit taking day

Stocks are having an outstanding month after starting from greatly oversold levels. Such a sharp rebound was to be expected. The Dow chart below shows how far it has come off the lows, making this one of the best months ever. Today Dow fell 112, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ dropped 24.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 1 month





Banks are holding up well after the run-up in Mar, the S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX slipped only pennies today.

Value
126.60
Change
-0.97
% Change
-0.8%


MLPs, REITs & junk bond funds followed averages lower while VIX ticked up. In its biggest decline in 2 weeks, oil fell below 52 on growing doubts about world economies & their recoveries.

CLK09.NYM...Crude Oil May 09...51.84 ...Down 2.50
.......(4.6%)



Growth in spending by American consumers slowed in Feb & most of that was attributable to inflation. Adjusted for inflation spending declined 0.2% last month vs a 0.7% increase in the prior month. Meanwhile, incomes fell 0.2% last month after a 0.2% rise in Jan. This was the 4th decline in the last 5 months. Michigan final index of consumer sentiment rose slightly but remains bogged down in the mid 50s, record low readings.

Consumer-Spending Growth in U.S. Slows as Rising Prices Erode Buying Power
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Holds Near Three-Decade Low as Job Losses Mount


The president is meeting with the top bank execs, trying to round up support for the massive amounts of debt the gov will be spending & a fundamental changes proposed for banks. Goldman Sachs's Abby Joseph Cohen, a highly respected Wall Street economist, expects there will be more negative news from banks. She said the US economy is "less bad" & may show growth later in the year. But she worries about the health of European economies & other countries. However at the start of last year, she predicted the S&P 500 would be 1675 by year end (double the current value).

Obama Seeks Support From JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup on Bank Plan
Goldman Sachs's Abby Cohen Predicts There Will Be More Bad News From Banks


After such a good month for the markets, Mar may go out like a lamb if today is any indication.

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