Friday, August 7, 2009

Markets leap on favorable unemployment news

Dow started strong out of the gate. It's up 124, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1, NAZ is up 29 (to 2002) & S&P 500 is up 14 to 1012. Banks are soaring taking the Financial Index back to the early days of Nov 2008.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
194.70
Change
6.64
% Change
3.5%



S5FINL:IND





MLPs are on holiday this week, taking it easy (up a fraction in the 241s). This is their 4th down or sluggish days, although ex-distributions account for some of their decline. But the Dow Jones REIT Index is on a tear, rising 6½ to the 162s, another 2009 high. Junk bond funds are higher again. Meanwhile Treasuries are selling off. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond jumped 11 basis points to 3.85%. The magical 4% yield is very close.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




10-year Treasury Yld Index - 2 months





Oil is not ready to break the 73 ceiling, off a little today back in the 71s.

CLU09.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 09...71.52...Down 0.42
.......(0.6%)



Employers cut just 247K jobs in Jul, the fewest in a year. The unemployment rate dipped to 9.4%, the first decline in 15 months. However, the jobs market is on shaky ground even though the new figures were better than expected & offered welcomed improvements to a part of the economy that has been clobbered. While the worst seems to be behind us (in terms of layoffs) more hiring is needed to reduce unemployment. Part of the reason the rate went down was hundreds of thousands left the labor force. There were 14.5M out of work in Jul. Including laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work, the unemployment rate would have been 16.3% (an alarming number). Job losses were blunted mainly by job gains in gov, education & health services. Since the recession began in Dec 2007, the economy has lost 6.7M jobs.

U.S. Payroll Cuts Slow, Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls as Recession Eases


Fannie Mae (FNM) will need another $11B from from the gov after reporting one more huge loss. This will bring total aid needed by FNM & Freddie Mac (FRE) to a whopping $96B (these 2 institutions guarantee about ½ the mortgages in the US).


CIT (CIT) is still struggling to stay alive. They received the last $1B on under the emergency $3B loan agreed to last month. Preferred dividend payments gave been suspended to improve liquidity. The stock is up 9¢ to 1.71 for the very brave. CIT is a large lender to small & medium size businesses, especially important for retailers.

CIT Suspends Payment of Preferred Dividends During Lender's Restructuring


Dow started the week with a bang & then traded sideways until today when buyers returned. It's next upside goal is 9½K which is just 100+ away.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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