Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Markets little changed

Stocks traded in a narow range on the last day of the qtr. Dow added 15, advancers were 2-1 ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 10. Banks stocks were little changed, keeping the Financial Index near its key 186 support level.


Value 188.08 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change 0.39 (0.2%)

The Alerian MLP index is up 3+ to the 310s & should have a modest gain in what has been a very tough qtr. The REIT index is up 2+ to the 192s & is down only 6 in the qtr. Junk bond funds were mixed to higher. The VIX, volatility index, fell 1½ to 32½ but remains at elevated levels with higher fears. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was flat at 2.97%, very worrisome for the stock markets.

Alerian MLP index --- 2 weeks

Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks

VIX --- 2 weeks

10-Year Treasury Yld Index --- 2 weeks

Oil rebounded from the recent sell-off & was able to hold above the 75 floor. Gold is essentially flat but still near its record highs in the 1260s set recently.

CLQ10.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 10...76.46 ...Up 0.52

GCN10.CMX...Gold Jul 10...1,244.60 ...Up 2.60

Gold Super Cycle!!!
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According to the jobs report from ADP, US companies only added 13K jobs in Jun (following a revised 57K increase in May), the smallest since Feb & the forecast number was 60K. Employers are reluctant to hire. However, numbers from this survey only get so-so marks for helping predict the important jobs numbers coming on Fri (which is expected to show the unemployed remaining at 9.8%).

ADP: U.S. Companies Added 13K Workers, Below Estimates

Verizon Wireless, a part of Verizon (VZ & a Dow stock), could sell as many as 12M iPhones in 2011 when it begins offering the device in Jan. AT&T has had exclusive claim on the iPhone in the US since its introduction in 2007. This contract could increase Apple’s annual revenue by more than $7B & EPS by more than $3 a share according to an analyst. VZ was down 38¢ & has had a drab chart in the last 2 years but offers a yield of almost 7%. AAPL has done quite well thru the recession, but is down pennies today with no yield.

Verizon May Sell 12 Million IPhones After AT&T Exclusive Ends

Verizon --- 2 years

Apple --- 2 years

The € strengthened to above $122½, but remains at a dreary level. There was a report that tthe European Central Bank said it will lend banks €131.9B ($161.5B) for 3 months, less than forecasted & a sign that the region’s financials may be stronger than investors estimated. But US markets paid little attention. The early reading from ADP on another dismal jobs report coming on Fri is having a greater impact. Being the last day of the qtr, last minute adjustments to portfolios can to be expected.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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