Thursday, May 30, 2013

Higher markets on stimulus hopes

Dow rose 60, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 23.  The MLP index plunged 9+ to the 447s ( a huge drop for this index) & the REIT index was off fractionally in the 292s.  Junk bond funds were higher (after yesterday's sell-off) & Treasuries  hardly budged with the 10 year Treasury near its 1 year high.  Oil fell back & gold rallied the most in a week on speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain bond purchases to bolster the US economy, boosting demand for the precious metal as a store of value.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

ONDS

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.29%

U.S. 10-year

2.12%

CLN13.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 13...92.08 Down ....1.05  (1.1%)

GCM13.CMX...Gold Jun 13.....1,414.10 Up ...22.80 (1.6%)








Jobless Claims in U.S. Climb as Holiday Prevents Complete Count

Photo:   Bloomberg

The number seeking unemployment benefits rose 10K last week to 354K.  Still, the level of applications is consistent with steady hiring & remains near a 5-year low.  The Labor Dept said that applications increased from a revised 344K the previous week, slightly higher than the 340K initially reported.  The gains pushed the less volatile 4-week average up 7K to 347K for the 3rd straight increase.  Weekly applications are a proxy for layoffs which have fallen nearly 7% since Nov & touched a 5-year low of 338K earlier this month.  5 states were unable to report complete data because of the Memorial Day holiday earlier this week & the dept estimated figures for those states.  That could mean that last week's figure will be revised more than usual next week when the final data is received.  Nearly 4.6M are receiving unemployment benefits, down 25% from 6.1M a year earlier.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Climb as Holiday Hampers Count


<p> FILE - In this March 1, 2013 file photo, a crane removes a container from a ship at the Port of Baltimore's Seagirt Marine Terminal in Baltimore. The government issues its second estimate of economic growth for the January-March quarter on Thursday, May 30, 2013. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

Photo:   Yahoo

The US economy grew at a modest 2.4% annual rate in Q1, slightly slower than initially estimated.  Consumer spending was stronger than first thought, but businesses restocked more slowly & state & local gov spending cuts were deeper.  The Commerce Dept said that economic growth in Q1 was only marginally below the 2.5% annual rate the gov had estimated last month.  That's still much faster than the 0.4% growth during Q4.  Current forecasts are for growth to slow to around a 2% annual rate in Q2 as the economy adjusts to federal spending cuts, higher taxes & further global weakness.  The 2nd look at Q1 growth showed that consumer spending roared ahead at a 3.4% annual rate, the fastest spending growth in more than 2 years & even stronger than the 3.2% rate estimated last month.  Healthy consumer spending shows many Americans are shrugging off an increase this year in Social Security taxes that has reduced most paychecks.

Economy in U.S. Grew at 2.4% Rate, Less Than First Estimated


U.S. Foreclosure Deals Decline 22% as Rising Prices Delay Sales

Photo:   Bloomberg

Foreclosure related US home sales fell 22% in Q1 from a year earlier as rising prices reduced the incentive to sell for owners who owe more than their properties are worth, according to RealtyTrac.  190K homes in some stage of foreclosure or taken by banks were sold in Q1, down 18% from Q4.  Those deals, including short sales, or transactions in which lenders let homeowners sell for less than what they owe, accounted for 21% of residential transactions, compared with 25% a year earlier.  “Prices going up take away the urgency from banks and homeowners from having to do a short sale,” Daren Blomquist, VP of RealtyTrac, said.  “Short sales have been seen as an alternative to foreclosure, and some people were counting on that to continue in 2013, but we aren’t seeing evidence of that right now.”  US home values rose 10.9% in the 12 months through Mar, the most in 7 years, after a 9.4% gain in Feb, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.  Foreclosure-related properties sold for an average of $167K, down 1% from Q4 & up 3% from a year earlier.  Such homes were purchased for an average discount of 30% to non-distressed properties.  Housing is clearly mending.

Foreclosure Deals Drop 22% as Rising Prices Delay Sales


The bulls have returned to take the markets higher.  But the high yield sectors are seeing a lot of selling.  The REIT index is off 23 from the peak last week & the MLP index fell 23 from the record reached last week.  There is nervousness about an ending (or reduction) to the bond buying program by the Federal Reserve.  This is a coming event & that may come sooner with strength shown in the economy.  Apple (AAPL), with the largest market cap in the world, remains 260 below its record high reached 8 months.  But Dow keeps forging ahead.

Dow Jones Industrials

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