Thursday, May 2, 2013

Markets rise on economic data and ECB rate cut

Dow was up 130, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 41.  The MLP index was off a fraction to the 447s & the REIT index jumped 2 to 304.  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries were flattish with their lowest yields in months.  Oil & gold had very good days.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.053%

U.S. 2-year

0.202%

U.S. 10-year

1.631%

CLM13.NYM....Crude Oil Jun 13....93.15 Up ....2.12 (2.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Trade Gap in U.S. Narrows More Than Forecast to $38.8 Billion

Photo:    Bloomberg

The US trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in Mar to its 2nd-lowest level in 3 years as imports of consumer goods & business equipment declined.  The gap shrank 11% to $38.8B from a revised $43.6B in Feb, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a $42.3B deficit.  Imports dropped by the most since Feb 2009 as the US shortfall with China fell to a 3-year low.  Boosting shipments of American-made goods may prove difficult as companies contend with slower growth in parts of Asia & struggling economies in Europe.  At the same time, US demand for imports has waned as businesses stockpile less & households cut back on purchases.  Imports decreased 2.8%, the most since Feb 2009, to $223B from $229B in the prior month.  Purchases of foreign-made capital equipment & consumer goods dropped.  The import figures included 215.7M barrels of crude oil compared with 204.8M the prior month.  Accounting for 3 extra days in Mar than in Feb, crude oil imports averaged about 7M barrels a day, the lowest since Mar 1996!  Excluding petroleum, the trade shortfall narrowed to $17.7B in Mar from $22.2B.  Exports decreased 0.9% to $184B, reflecting fewer overseas sales of foods, motor vehicles, capital equipment & consumer goods.  Trade subtracted 0.5 percentage point from economic growth in Q1, the most since Q4 in 2011.

Trade Deficit in U.S. Narrowed More Than Forecast in March


Keystone-Like Fight Looms in Enbridge’s Plan to Double Oil Flow

Photo:    Bloomberg

A new front may soon open in the battle over pipelines that transport Canadian oil to the US involving a line that would carry even more oil derived from Alberta's tar sands than the TransCanada (TRP) proposed Keystone pipeline.  Enbridge, Inc, with interests in Enbridge Partners (EEP), a prominent MLP in the US,  requested a permit to boost the volume of oil on an existing pipeline from Alberta to Wisconsin has so far escaped controversy.  But that may change as the State Dept begins to review the plan, which would almost double the line’s capacity to 880K barrels a day (bpd), more than the proposed capacity of Keystone.  Pipeline companies are proposing new ways to export oil from Canada to the south, east & west as rising production overwhelms existing lines & depresses prices.  Output from Canada’s oil sands will more than double by 2021 to 3.38M barrels a day, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.  In Mar, the State Dept asked for comment as it updates a 2009 environmental impact statement for the US permit granted to Enbridge’s original pipeline, known as the Alberta Clipper or Line 67.  ENB, Canada’s largest transporter of crude oil, is seeking permission to double the flow thru the line that starts in Alberta, and ends in Superior, Wisconsin where the oil is shipped to the Midwestern & Gulf Coast markets.  Increasing the flow of crude thru the Clipper would pose “little incremental environmental impact” & the risk of a spill “is very small,”  a spokesman for EEP said.  “We expect that following the supplemental EIS that the permit will be amended as requested.”  EEP units fell 35¢.

Keystone-Like Fight Looms in Enbridge’s Plan to Double Oil Flow

Enbridge Energy (EEP)


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Boeing Loses $1.76 Billion Jumbo-Jet Order After Cutting Output

Photo:   Bloomberg

Boeing, a Dow stock, lost an order of five 747-8 jumbo jets with a value of $1.76B less than a month after cutting production of the plane because of flagging demand.  BA reached an agreement with Dubai Aerospace to cancel the order, although DAE still has an order for five 777 freighters.  The 747-8 has a selling price of $352M, although buyers often receive discounts.  Production of the largest commercial airplane, was reduced to 1.75 planes a month from 2 because of weakness in the global air-cargo market.  Freight dropped 1.1% in Q1 from a year earlier, led by a 4.6% decline in Asia Pacific intl cargo.  Delays & cost overruns have plagued the upgraded version of the 747 which went into service in Oct 2011, almost 6 years after the first order for the plane.  BA booked writedowns of $1.35B in 2009 & $685M in 2008 related to costs for the plane’s development, & production.  BA has 54 orders pending to fill for the 747 airliner & freighter & has received an order for 3 planes this year after getting 2 orders for a total of 7 jets in 2012.  But the stock is flying, gaining another 1.02 today.

Boeing Loses $1.76 Billion 747 Order After Cutting Output

Boeing (BA)


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Stocks are heading for the clouds again ahead of the Apr jobs which will be released before the markets open tomorrow.  While it is unclear what good the rate cut by the ECB will do to improve economies in Europe, it sounds good & buyers are responding.  There was less notice about possible objections to a major expansion by EEP in the upper midwest for its pipeline.  This is the longest pipeline in the world, going from Alberta to Cushing, OK, with a branch into eastern Canada.  If activists spread this fight to other pipeline expansions, MLPs will lose their status as darlings of investors.  The Alerian MLP Index is already up a massive 100+ from its lows last Jun.

Dow Jones Industrials

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