Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Markets fluctuate after weaker factory data

Dow was up 14, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ gained 8.  The MLP index added a fraction to 460 & the REIT index lost a fraction in the 309s.  Junk bond funds were lower & Treasuries found buyers.  Oil dropped & gold is heading below 1400, another support level that is giving away.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.24%

U.S. 10-year

1.93%

CLM13.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 13...93.01 Down .....1.20  (1.3%)

GCK13.CMX...Gold May 13...1,412.80 Down ...11.90  (0.8%)









Confidence among US homebuilders rebounded this month, reflecting improved sales trends during the spring home-selling season & the strongest outlook for sales over the next 6 months in more than 6 years.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index climbed to 44 this month from 41 in Apr, the first increase since Dec.  Measures of customer traffic & current sales conditions also improved.  Readings below 50 suggest negative sentiment about the housing market & the last time the index was at 50 or higher was 7 years ago.  Concerns over rising costs for land, building materials & labor have dimmed builders' confidence in recent months.  Regardless, steady job creation, near record-low mortgage rates & rising home values have spurred sales this year.

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Climbs as Outlook Improves


Customers stand outside Macy's store in New York, April 11, 2013. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Photo:   Yahoo

Macy's reported higher Q1 profit & sales as it won market share from rivals & comparable sales rose 3.8%.  Overall sales were in line with expectations, increasing 4% to $6.39B.  The company has benefited from large investments in technology in recent years, which have allowed it to use its stores to deliver orders placed online, fueling its e-commerce, giving it an edge over many department store rivals.  Merchandise inventory levels were up 3%, roughly in line with expected sales gains.  Still, CEO Terry Lundgren said the company saw "weakness" in parts of its clientele, particularly its most price-conscious shoppers & Bloomingdale's customers.  US retail sales in Apr were dented by cool weather in large parts of the country, which prompted many consumers to delay spring shopping, & by lingering concerns about the state of the job market.  EPS rose to 55¢, up from 43¢ a year earlier & topping the forecast by 2¢.  Despite the higher-than-expected profit, the full-year EPS forecast was left unchanged at $3.90-$3.95 a share on a same-store sales rise of 3.5%.  The quarterly div was boosted to 25¢ from 20¢ & the share repurchase authorization was increased $1.5B.  The stock rose 48¢.

Macy’s Profit Tops Estimates as Stock Buyback Boosted

Macy's (M)

stock chart


US factories cut back sharply on production in Apr, as auto companies cranked out fewer cars & most other industries reduced output.  The weakness suggests economic growth may be slowing.  The Federal Reserve said that manufacturing output dropped 0.4% in Apr from Mar, the 3rd decline in 4 months & the biggest since Oct.  Production of autos & auto parts fell 1.3% in Apr.  But the decline is likely temporary because automakers are reporting stronger sales.  Overall industrial production, which also includes output at utilities & mines, dropped 0.5% in Apr, the biggest decline since Aug.  Utility production plunged 3.7%, as power output returned to more normal levels after an unusually cold Mar.  Factory output, the largest component of industrial production, is falling at a time when a weaker global economy has reduced demand for US exports.  American businesses are worried that federal spending cuts & higher Social Security taxes could drag on economic growth this year.  US exports to Europe are likely to stay weak now that its recession has extended into its 6th qtr.

US factory output falls 0.4 percent in April AP


Dow continues strong despite falling factory production & numerous scandals in DC.  This should not be a favorable environment for stocks, but there seems to be an unlimited number of buyers coming to the market.  Dow has risen an unbelievable 3.1K (25%) in less than a year & bulls are calling for the advance to continue.  Maybe it will & maybe it won't.  Who knows?

Dow Jones Industrials

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