Monday, June 17, 2013

Higher markets on homebuilder confidence data

Dow shot up 164, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 34.  The MLP index jumped 4 to 450 & the REIT index was up 1+ to 284 (a rather muted recovery considering it's still 31 below the recent high).  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries slid lower.  Oil wants to go over $100 while gold is still looking for friends.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.27%

U.S. 10-year

2.10%

CLN13.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 13...98.32 Up ...0.47 (0.5%)


GCN13.CMX...Gold Jul 13.....1,384.60  ....3.00  (0.2%)








Carpenters work on new homes at a residential construction site in the west side of Las Vegas Valley in Las Vegas, Nevada April 5, 2013. REUTERS/Steve Marcus

Photo:   Yahoo

Homebuilder sentiment jumped in Jun, rising above a key milestone for the first time since the start of the housing crisis in a vote of confidence for the sector's recovery, according to the National Association of Home Builders.  The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index surged to 52 from 44 in May, handily topping forecasts for 45.  Readings above 50 mean more builders view market conditions as favorable than poor & was the first time the index has been above that dividing line since Apr 2006 (the highest level since Mar of 2006).  "Surpassing this important benchmark reflects the fact that builders are seeing better market conditions as demand for new homes increases," NAHB chairman Rick Judson said.  "With the low inventory of existing homes, an increasing number of buyers are gravitating toward new homes."  Confidence among homebuilders has strengthened in the last year & a half, alongside a recovery in the broader housing sector.  The index is 23 points higher than where it was in Jun of last year.  Rising prices, tighter inventory & improved sales have all helped the housing market get back on its feet.  Homebuilders felt even more optimistic for the coming months with the gauge of single-family sales expectations for the next 6 months accelerating to 61 from 52.  The single-family home sales component rose to 56 from 48, while prospective buyer traffic climbed to 40 from 33.

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Rose to Seven-Year High in June


New York Area Factory Sentiment Rises to Three-Month High

Photo:   Bloomberg

Manufacturers in the New York region felt more optimistic in Jun even as orders, sales & employment dropped, indicating the area’s factories are looking beyond the current slowdown in growth.  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic gauge, the Empire State index, climbed to 7.8 this month, the highest reading since Mar, from minus 1.4 in May.  Readings of greater than zero signal expansion in NY, northern NJ & southern CT.  The projection called for a reading of zero.  The headline index is considered a sentiment reading because it’s derived separately from underlying measures of economic strength, which deteriorated last month.  Businesses are putting off equipment purchases as they navigate the effects of this year’s across-the-board federal spending cuts & higher taxes.  Manufacturers also have been hindered by a recession in Europe & a slowdown in China.  That drop in orders is troubling.

New York Area Factory Sentiment Rises to Three-Month High


<p> A protester leaves the headquarters of Greek state broadcaster , ERT, in Athens, on Sunday, June 16, 2013. Greece's fragile governing coalition failed to reach a compromise Wednesday about the closure of the state-run ERT broadcaster, that has left the government in a crisis that could lead to early elections, just a year after it was formed to save the country from bankruptcy. (AP Photo/Kostas Tsironis)

Photo:  Yahoo

Party leaders in Greece's ruling coalition will try healing the rift over the closure of the country's state TV & radio broadcaster that is threatening to topple the gov & compromise the country's bailout program.  Conservative Prime Minister Samaras' fragile 3-party coalition, formed to save Greece from bankruptcy this time last year, is now flirting with the political instability that has forced 3 changes of gov in as many years.  Both minority leaders in the year-old coalition government have strongly opposed the decision last week to shut down Hellenic Broadcasting, ERT, as part of the country's austerity program.  The Prime Minister will hold talks with the leaders in an attempt to shore up parliamentary support for the closure.  ERT staff has continued unauthorized live programming since the Jun 11 closure, backed by European Broadcasting Union which represents public TV & radio stations across the continent.  The dispute over ERT has rekindled anti-austerity protests, & even led to warnings from within Samaras' own conservative party that the dispute was putting sacrifices made by Greek tax payers at risk.  Watch Greece.

Greek coalition wrestles to avoid collapse AP


Stocks are back in a rally mode & the Dow is within 1% of the record high.  US homebuilders & auto companies are doing well, but the rest of the economy is soggy.  Q2 GDP growth will probably be so-so as it has been for some time.  The recovery from the recession in 2009 barely gets a grade of C after the gov threw almost $1T in federal spending at the economy.  But stock buyers are back, especially interested in higher yields stocks.  Big Ben's comments coming soon will be telling for stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart









No comments: