Friday, June 21, 2013

Markets fluctuate as 10 year Treasury yield tops 2.5%

Dow recovered 41, advancers & decliners were about even while the NAZ fell 7.  The MLP index was flat at 436 but the REIT index rebounded 4+ to the 268s (still down 46 from last month's highs).  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries yields soared to 2.51%.  Oil fell & gold had a tiny recovery.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart









Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.36%

U.S. 10-year

2.50%

CLX13.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 13....92.65 Down ...1.66  (1.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




China Poses Global Growth Risk as Li Squeezes Credit Binge

Photo:   Bloomberg

China's attempt to balance its economy without breaking it puts global growth at risk should policy makers fail.  Premier Li Keqiang's 3-month-old gov is allowing the tightest squeeze on credit in at least a decade to wean the nation off a cash binge that threatened to destabilize the economy.  The aim is to deliver sustainable, more-even economic expansion closer to 7% than the rates faster than 9% witnessed in recent years.  The risk is that getting the transition wrong will stifle credit & hurt activity at home & abroad just as the Federal Reserve pivots toward withdrawing stimulus.

China Poses Global Growth Risk as Li Squeezes Credit


Gold Trade Most Bearish Since ’10 as Fed Spurs Drop

Photo:   Bloomberg

Gold traders are the most bearish in 3½ years after prices fell to the lowest since 2010 following Big Ben's comments that the central bank may start curbing stimulus.  15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to fall next week, with 6 bullish & 5, the largest proportion of bears since Jan 2010 as the metal slumped below 1300 ounce for the first time since Sep 2010 yesterday.   Investors sold 526 metric tons valued at about $22B from exchange-traded products this year.  Gold as much as doubled since 2008 as quantitative easing swelled the Federal Reserve balance sheet to a record $3.4T.  The metal reached 1269 today before rebounding for the first gain this week.  This year’s 23% slump is set to be the worst since 1981.



CEO Michael Dell is urging shareholders to vote in favor of his offer to take DELL private.  Dell said in a regulatory filing that taking Dell private will make it easier to transform it from a PC-focused business to one focused on business software, data storage & services. "As a public company, we must take a more cautious approach to our transformation, because we must consider how our stock price will react to the steps we take and what effect that will have on the company and on customers and employees," Michael Dell said.  The filing comes the same week that activist investor Carl Icahn proposed a $16B share buyback in his latest effort to thwart Michael Dell's effort to take the company private.  Icahn, the company's 2nd-largest shareholder after buying 72M shares wants the company to buy back up to 1.1M shares at $14 apiece to boost shareholders' return on their investment.  The board has already unanimously recommended that shareholders vote for the $24B offer from Michael Dell & the investment firm Silver Lake Partners.  The offer is for $13.65 a share versus $13.35 today.

Michael Dell urges shareholders to take his offer Associated Press

Dell (DELL)


stock chart


Nothing was accomplished in the markets today.  Everybody is trying to figure to what changes are coming to the markets & when.  One thing that is sure, rates are going higher which will hurt all companies that borrow.  The housing recovery may be pinched although mortgage rates remain at historically low levels.  Next week bulls will try to take control again, but may not succeed.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart