Friday, August 2, 2013

Mixed markets following the July jobs report

Dow added 30 for another record close, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ gained 13.  The MLP index sank 6 to the 448s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 277s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries continued in their rally mode after yesterday's sell-off.  Oil was lower on the jobs report & gold had minor selling.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month


U.S. 2-year


U.S. 10-year


CLU13.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 13....106.89 Down ...1.00  (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

New orders for US factory goods rose for the 3rd straight month in Jun.  The Commerce Dept said new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.5% & May's orders were revised to show a 3.0% rise instead of the previously reported 2.1% advance.  The forecast for new orders called for an increase of 2.3%.  Manufacturing slowed in the spring, hobbled by tight fiscal policy & weak global demand, but there are signs it is starting to find some momentum.  Data yesterday showed a gauge of national factory activity rising to a 2-year high in Jun, driven by a surge in production & new orders.  The Commerce Dept report showed factory orders in Jun were boosted by demand for transportation equipment, with orders there rising 12%.  Orders excluding the volatile transportation category slipped 0.4 percent after rising 1.0% in May.  Unfilled orders for factory goods jumped 2.1%, the largest increase since Dec 2007, a good sign for future manufacturing activity.  The dept also said orders for durable goods, which are manufactured products expected to last 3 years or more, rose 3.9% instead of the 4.2% increase reported last week.  Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.9% versus a 0.7% reported last week.

U.S. Factory Orders Boosted in June by Surge in Transportation Reuters

Autodata revised the US July light-vehicle annual sales rate to 15.8M from 15.7M   The researcher restated the rate after the US Bureau of Economic Analysis issued recalculated seasonal trends.  The revised 15.8M figure is in line with the average estimate.  The revised sales rate for Jul 2012 was 14.2M.  US light-vehicle deliveries gained 14% last month to 1.32M & industrywide sales are on track for the best year since 2007.

U.S. July Light-Vehicle Sales Rate Revised to 15.8 Mln

U.S. Retailers Add Most Jobs in Eight Months as Consumers Spend

Photo:   Bloomberg

US retailers added 47K workers in Jul, the most in 8 months, as consumers become more comfortable spending money, marking a bright spot in a jobs report that indicated uneven progress in the labor market.  The retail hiring, included gains at general merchandise stores, which added 9K jobs, & building-material & garden-supply stores, which added 6K, according to the Labor Dept.  Clothing & accessories retailers added 4K jobs, a 0.3% increase from Jun.  The boost likely comes from retailers who have developed strong specialty brands that are resonating more with their consumers.    Consumer spending rose 0.5% in Jun, in line with forecasts.  The retail industry’s strength was a positive in a jobs report that trailed estimates.  However many of the new retail jobs may be low-wage & part-time positions.  Occupations paying below-average wages accounted for more than half of last month’s payroll increase, a dynamic that may restrain consumer spending & the economic recovery.

U.S. Retailers Add Most Jobs in Eight Months

LinkedIn Sales Top Analysts’ Estimates as Membership Surges

Photo:   Bloomberg

A weaker-than-projected sales forecast failed to derail the 2 year rally for LinkedIn (LNKD).  The stock has more than quadrupled since its 2011 IPO.  But the biggest online professional-networking service issued a revenue prediction for the current period of $367-$373M, trailing the estimate  for $383M.  Instead investors focused on membership, which has more than doubled since 2011 to 238M, & Q2 revenue that exceeded estimates.  The company has raised prices for recruiters, rolled out features to keep users coming back & recently introduced a product letting advertisers promote their brands on members’ homepages.  Revenue in climbed 59% to $364M, topping the $354M estimate.  The company has beaten sales estimates in all 9 qtrs since its IPO.  Membership jumped 36% from a year earlier. CEO Jeff Weiner said.  The company views its addressable market as the world’s 600M “knowledge workers,” meaning it still has more than 360M potential customers.  EPS was 3¢, the same as last year, but net income rose 33%.  Sales this year will be $1.46-$1.48B, an increase from a forecast in May of $1.43-$1.46B.  The middle of that range represents growth of 51% from 2012.  Even with the increase, LNKD’s 2013 forecast trailed the $1.5B average estimate.  While all 3 of the main units are expanding, growth decelerated in the latest period.  The stock shot up 22.48 to a new record.

LinkedIn Two-Year Stock Rally Marches on Even With Lagging Sales Forecast

LinkedIn (LNKD)

stock chart

This was a quiet day in the markets, typical for a Fri during the summer.  The jobs report was only slightly negative & not far from the forecasts.  Many traders are away, enjoying profits made with this year's rally in the stock market.  Even though stocks are generally doing well, investors with significant holdings in yield securities (including munis), have seen a major retreat since May.  That divergence will not last.
Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart

I just got word from one of my friends at MarketClub, that for a very limited time, they’re opening up their premium service for a no-cost, 2 week trial!  Like many of you, I’m a huge fan of INO, and from what I have seen so far, their service Marketclub!  This isn’t a stripped down version, everything in MarketClub is available to you. I don’t want to give everything away, but you’ll have unlimited access to my favorite three tools: Trade Triangles, Smart Scan, and Alerts!  The best part is that the MarketClub customer support team will be providing UNLIMITED support!  You can call or email for an instant response to any question, comment or concern.

Here’s that link:

No comments: