Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Markets sink after GDP and jobs data

Dow fell 63, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ added 9.  The MLP index plunged 6 to the 513s & the REIT index was flattish at 307.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries sold off.  Oil advanced, buoyed by stronger-than forecast US economic data while gold slid back under 1300.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLU14.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 14...101.46 Up ...0.49 (0.5%)

GCU14.CMX...Gold Sep 14.......1,294.90 Down ...4.10  (0.3%)










Gains in consumer spending & business investment helped the US economy rebound more than forecast in Q2 following a slump in Q1 that was smaller than previously estimated.  GDP rose at a 4% annualized rate, the most since Q3-2013, after shrinking 2.1% in Q1, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 3% advance.  Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, rose 2.5%, reflecting the biggest gain in purchases of durable goods such as autos in almost 5 years.  Manufacturers should keep improving in H2 as increasing employment lifts consumer confidence & spending.  The pickup in growth, as the expansion enters its 6th year, is among reasons Federal Reserve officials meeting today may continue to pare monthly asset purchases while keeping interest rates low.  With today’s report, the Commerce Dept issued its annual revisions, incorporating newly available data from sources including corp tax returns & wage surveys.  The update altered most statistics back to 1999, with the biggest revisions affecting the past 3 years.  The update showed worker pay was a smaller piece of the income pie than earlier estimated as some Americans reaped significantly more in interest & div payments over the past 2 years.  The report also showed the economy expanded more slowly over the past 3 years.

Economy in U.S. Grows More Than Forecast


Companies added 218K workers in Jul, exceeding the average for the year & showing improving demand is bolstering the US job market.  The gain followed a 281K increase in Jun that was the strongest since Nov 2012, according to ADP Research Institute.  The forecast called for a 230K.  Businesses are limiting dismissals & taking on more workers, spurring consumer confidence & laying the groundwork for a pickup in household spending that accounts for about 70% of the economy.  Private payroll gains have averaged 204K this year, according to ADP.  Manufacturers, builders & other goods-producing industries increased headcount by 16K & employment in construction rose 12K,  Factories added just 3K jobs.  Payrolls at service providers increased by 202,000 (generally lower paying jobs).  Companies employing 500 or more workers added 41K jobs.  Medium-sized businesses, 50-499 employees, took on 92K workers & small companies increased payrolls by 84K.

ADP Says Companies in U.S. Boosted Payrolls by 218,000


Russia's central bank said it’s ready to help lenders targeted by the US & Europe in their latest round of sanctions, as Dutch experts again abandoned an attempt to visit the crash site of Malaysian Air Flight 17.  EU govs agreed yesterday on their most sweeping sanctions against Russia to date, barring state-owned banks from selling shares or bonds in Europe, restricting the export of equipment to modernize the oil industry & barring the sale of technology with military uses.  The sanctions are an attempt to get pres Putin to back down in Ukraine.  “The financial organizations function normally and render their customers a complete range of services, including funds transfers and banking-card settlements,” the central bank said.  “If necessary, adequate measures will be taken to support the said organizations with the view of protecting interests of their customers, depositors and creditors.”  The EU sanctions align the 28-member bloc with the actions taken by the US.  With many European countries reliant on Russian oil & natural gas, the sanctions stopped short of the full-scale commercial warfare that could damage the Euro economy, which is still shaking off the euro debt crisis.

Russia May Aid Sanctioned Banks as MH17 Probe Stymied


The favorable news on GDP data & the first jobs report for Jul, should have brought more buying in stocks, especially following recent weakness.  But Dow, after starting with a good gain an the opening is in in the RED.  Q2 GDP strength sounds good, but revising prior data economic growth data lower was not welcome.  The mini wars in eastern Ukraine & Gaza (where a 4 hour truce was supposed to be in effect, but rockets are being fired) are weighing on the stock markets.  Also the markets are waiting for Janet to speak in the PM.

Dow Jones Industrials



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