Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Markets crawl higher as Republicans win the Senate

Dow rose 22, advancers slightly ahead of decliners & NAZ fell 9.  The MLP index lost 1+ to the 491s & the REIT index was off fractionally to under 321.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries didn't do much.  Oil rebounded a little (if you can call it that) & gold slid even lower.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



CLZ14.NYM....Crude Oil Dec 14...77.63 Up ...0.44 (0.6%)

GCX14.CMX...Gold Nov 14.....1,140.50 Down ..26.90  (2.3%)








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Service industries in the US sustained a faster pace of expansion in Oct than in H1, indicating the economy is overcoming a global slowdown.  While the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index decreased to 57.1 from the prior month’s 58.6, readings greater than 50 signal growth & last month’s outcome exceeded the 54.4 average for the first 6 months of 2014.  The estimate was 58.  The ISM services survey covers an array of industries including utilities, retailing, health care & finance that make up almost 90% of the economy.  It also factors in construction & agriculture.  The new orders gauge decreased to 59.1 in Oct from 61 the prior month.  The measure of services employment climbed to a 9-year high of 59.6 from 58.5 in Sep.

Service Industries in U.S. Sustained Pace of Growth in October


Job Seekers Wait to Enter a Job Fair
Photo:   Bloomberg

Companies added more workers in Oct than the previous month, a sign employment growth is still on track for its best performance in 15 years.  The 230K increase in employment, the most since Jun, followed a revised 225K gain the prior month, according to the ADP Research Institute.  The forecast called for an advance of 220K.  The hiring gains reflect sustained consumer-spending gains in the face of a global slowdown, helped by a drop in fuel prices.  Even as employers hold down layoffs & add to staffs, workers may need a faster pace of wage gains to support the purchases that make up the biggest part of the economy.  A Labor Dept report on Fri may show private payrolls rose 223K last month & the jobless rate probably held at a 6-year low of 5.9%.  Goods-producing industries, which include manufacturers & construction companies, increased headcount by 48K.  Employment in construction rose by 28K, while factories added 15K jobs.  Payrolls at service providers (many are lower paying jobs) advanced 181K.  Companies employing more than 500 or more workers added 5K jobs.  Medium-sized businesses, with 50-499 employees, took on 122K & the smallest companies increased payrolls by 102K.

Employment in U.S. Picked Up in October, ADP Says


OPEC members’ average crude price fell below $80 for the first time in 4 years as Saudi Arabia & others in  the group supplying 40% of the world’s oil maintained output amid slowing demand growth.  The OPEC basket fell to $78.67 yesterday, the lowest since Oct 2010.  US oil production rose to the highest in at least 31 years amid slowing global demand, helping drive crude into a bear market last month.  The largest producers in the OPEC reduced prices rather than cut output, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq & Iran offering the biggest discounts to buyers in Asia this month since at least 2009.  OPEC will meet in 3 weeks to discuss whether to cut output to support prices.  Saudi Aramco surprised traders last month when it trimmed Nov official selling prices for its Arab Light crude to a 6-year low for buyers in Asia.  The move was interpreted as a shift in the stance of OPEC’s biggest producer to prioritize defending market share over supporting prices.  Iran & Iraq followed the Saudi cuts.  While Saudi selling prices to Asia for Dec increased, the cost of Arab Light for US buyers was cut 45¢ a barrel to the smallest premium in a year.  Members of OPEC are engaged in an internal “price war” as they seek to preserve their share of an oversupplied market, an Iraqi Oil Minister said.  OPEC’s crude production rose to a 14-month high of 31M barrels a day in Oct, led by Iraq, Saudi Arabia & Libya.

OPEC’s Crude Slumps Below $80 for First Time in Four Years


The Reps will have control of the House & Senate next year & markets are hoping that will brings helpful changes to the economy.  One obvious area is for less gov control over business activity & fewer new regulations that bring more hassle & business costs.  In pre-trading markets had a bigger advance, 2nd thoughts may be dimming that optimism.  The economic data was encouraging, but it was expected & pretty well baked into the markets.

Dow Jones Industrials









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