Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Mixed markets on mixed economic data

Dow went up 24, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ advanced 6.  The MLP index was fractionally higher in the 415s (sloshing around multi year lows) & the REIT index dropped 2 to 312.  Junk bond funds gained & Treasuries were sold.  Oil had a good gain while gold continued its slide lower.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)









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CLQ15.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 15....61.08 Up ...0.70 (1.2%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



Members of Angela Merkel’s coalition said the IMF's backing for a financing plan for Greece is key to German parliamentary support for a deal.  “If there’s to be a payout, we need a detailed calculation by the IMF,” Antje Tillmann, the ranking Finance Committee member from Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc, said.  “It has to add up to something sustainable.”  “For us, the IMF’s verdict is the benchmark for a credible, acceptable solution,” said Joachim Poss, deputy caucus leader in the lower house for the Social Democrats, Merkel’s junior coalition partner.  The unanimity among the parties that control 80% of the German Bundestag’s seats underscores the pressure on euro-area negotiators who are drafting an aid-for-reforms deal to satisfy Greece’s creditors, Prime Minister Tsipras’s anti-austerity gov & other euro-area members.  German lawmakers could vote on a deal as early as Mon, a day before Greece’s aid program expires on Jun 30.  IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the latest Greek proposal “still lacks specificity” after euro-area leaders discussed it at an emergency summit Mon.  “So we are short on time, long on work,” she said.  Merkel, who insisted on involving the IMF in euro-area bailouts to help enforce fiscal-austerity conditions, said “an awful lot of work” remains to be done & that debt sustainability “has to be part of the accord” on Greece.  Euro-area finance ministers reconvene to work on a compromise before EU leaders meet for a regularly scheduled summit on Thurs.  After months of talks between Tsipras’s gov & Greek creditors, Merkel needs a deal she can sell to her party bloc’s increasingly fed-up lawmakers as she seeks to keep Europe’s most-indebted country from tumbling out of the euro.

German Lawmakers Say IMF Stamp Is Key to Greek Deal Vote


Federal Resrve Governor Jerome Powell said he sees conditions for an interest rate liftoff as soon as Sep, & an additional increase in Dec.  He added that he believes the dollar & oil prices have broadly stabilized, & estimated the economy will grow at around a 2% pace this year.  Powell said he's seen positive signs in the economy, including a pickup in wages & an uptick in the labor participation rate.  He is a voting member on the policy-setting committee.

Fed's Powell: Up to 2 rate hikes possible this year

Caterpillar, a Dow stock, will lay off another 50 workers at its East Peoria, Illinois campus on Mon because of a downturn in demand for mining equipment.  The latest action brings to 270 the number of  workers CAT has said it will lay off this year in East Peoria.  The company employs almost 4K workers at the site, which is its main manufacturing hub.  Last week, the company said it would idle 120 employees from the location, adding to 100 layoffs announced in Jan 2015.  "Similar to recently announced indefinite layoffs on the East Peoria campus, these impacted employees also manufacture products used in mining and construction industries, which continue to witness weak market conditions," a company spokesperson said.  The layoffs affect workers represented by the United Auto Workers & are expected to take effect on Jun 29.  CEO Doug Oberhelman said in the Q1 earnings released late Apr the company was expecting "to face headwinds and uncertainty in 2015."  The stock was up 18¢.  If you would like to learn more about CAT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CAT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Caterpillar will lay off workers due to mining sector slump

Caterpillar (CAT)



Growth in the US manufacturing sector moderated in Jun for a 3rd month in a row, slipping to its slowest pace since late 2013.  Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index declined to 53.4 in Jun, it lowest since Oct 2013, from a final May reading of 54.  Economists had forecast the figure would be 54.2.  A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, whose jobs growth in Jun picked up for a 2nd straight month to its highest level since Nov 2014, Markit said.  While the survey data point to the economy rebounding in Q2, the weak PMI number for Jun raises the possibility that we are seeing a loss of momentum heading into the third quarter," said Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist.  "The slowdown is being led by deteriorating export performance, which many producers in turn linked to a loss of competitiveness caused by the stronger dollar."  The index's flash output component fell to 53.9 from the final May reading of 55.2 & the Jun flash output level was the lowest since Jan.  The flash reading of the index measuring new orders edged up in Jun to 54.5 from May's final 54.3.

Factory activity growth slowest since 2013

Dow remains stuck in a rut, hardly straying from 18K.  The chart below shows it has barely moved in half a year.  During this time, the Greek drama has played out & even at this late date nobody knows what will happen on Jun 30.  Hopes are high but a lot of people have to sign off on any bailout package.  Even if the loan is extended, more bailout money will be needed.  Euro stocks had an an enormous rally yesterday (on high hopes) & another one today (at a reduced pace).  Meanwhile China has had a major rally even though the economy is not impressive & the US looks like it will have another 2+% GDP growth year, good but short of great.  I don't know where this is leading!

Dow Jones Industrials








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