Monday, December 17, 2018

Markets plunge again on fears of more rate hikes by the Fed

Dow tumbled 507 (but finishing 135 above session lows), decliners over advancers about 7-1 & NAZ dropped 156.  The MLP index was off a huge 8+ to the 234s & the REIT index fell 1 to the 351s.  Junk bond funds declined & Treasuries were purchased as stocks kept falling.  Oil dropped 2 to the 49s & safe haven gold jumped up 9 to 1250.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Millionaire investors say the biggest risk to their personal wealth next year is dysfunction in DC.  According to CNBC's latest Millionaire Survey, millionaires say they generally are bullish about the economy, markets & their own fortunes next year.  But they also contend that political dysfunction & gov debt are looming problems for the economy & their wealth.  The semiannual survey is representative of the affluent population in the US.  The survey analyzes the investment attitudes & behaviors of 750 investors with $1M or more of investable assets.  Respondents are required to be the financial decision-maker or share jointly in financial decision-making within the household.  The survey also highlights the fact that millionaire attitudes toward the economy & markets remain highly political, with 41% of Rep millionaires predicting the economy will be better in 2019, compared with only 8% of Dem millionaires.  Fully 40% of millionaires surveyed say the economy will be just as strong in 2019 as it was in 2018, & 28% say it will be even better.  Yet gov dysfunction remains the greatest concern for investors regarding the economy (38%) & also to their own personal wealth (37%).  32% believe the stock market has increased as a threat compared to the past, & worries over the national debt & immigration have increased.  While more than ½ of millionaire investors anticipate that the S&P 500 will be up more than 5% in 2019, 20% believe it will be flat.  When asked about their own returns, 37% said they expect returns of 4-5.9%, while 30% expect returns of more than 6%.  Only 4% of respondents expect to be down in 2019.  Their longer-term outlook for future generations are also cautious: Only 1/3 of millionaires say their kids will be better off than they are, while 37% said they will be worse off.

The biggest risk to millionaire wealth is Washington: Survey

Google (GOOGL) has set aside its controversial push to launch a censored search service in China, according to a new report.  The latest move comes after hundreds of employees protested the project, known as Dragonfly & would reflect another response on the part of execs to internal disagreement with company plans.  Earlier this year GOOGL said it would not renew a gov contract related to artificial intelligence, after employees spoke out against the work.  Following years of being absent from China's web search market, GOOGL had wanted to launch the Dragonfly product in early 2019, although now, amid outcry inside & outside, the pressure seems to have caused leaders to "shelve it at least in the short term," said the report.  Many of its engineers working on the project have reportedly been reassigned to projects related to Brazil, Indonesia, Russia & other countries.  Last week CEO Sundar Pichai responded vaguely to questions about the Dragonfly project in a Congressional hearing.  "Right now, we have no plans to launch search in China," he said.  The stock sank 26 to 1025.
If you would like to learn more about GOOGL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GOOGL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Shares of US small-cap companies officially entered bear market territory today. The names are the most sensitive to fluctuations in the economy & market sentiment because of their small size & could signal larger caps would soon join them.  The Russell 2000 index fell 1.5% today, bringing its loss from its all time high hit in late Aug to 20%.  The benchmark reached its the lowest level since Aug 2017, continuing a sell-off triggered by worries on a slowing US economy.  The recent sell-off in small-cap stocks is a sharp reversal from its outperformance earlier this year.  Small caps had benefited from bets that small, domestic-oriented companies would be immune to the trade tensions between the US & China, & benefit most from the US tax cut.  But rising rates & increasing costs on things such as wages ultimately dented the appetite for smaller companies, along with an overall risk adverse sentiment.

Small cap stocks enter bear market, with Russell 2000 benchmark down 20% from highs

Crude-oil production from 7 major US shale plays is forecast to climb by 134K barrels a day in Jan to 8.166M barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration.  Oil output from the Permian Basin, which covers parts of western Texas & southeastern New Mexico, is expected to see the largest climb among the big shale plays, with an increase of 73K barrels a day in Jan from Dec.  Jan West Texas Intermediate oil declined to $1.08 (2.1%) at $50.12 a barrel & continues to fall.

EIA forecasts U.S. shale oil output to climb by 134,000 barrels a day in January


Already this is turning into one of the ugliest months in history for stocks.  The Dow is down a massive 2K in Dec.  Worries about the Fed tightening "too much" & trade war uncertainties are scaring many investors.  A possible partial gov shutdown this weekend is adding to these fears.  Times are tough but market veterans have been thru selloffs before.  Low prices bring attractive buying opportunities for quality stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials








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