Dow finished up 260 in an extraordinarily wild day of trading, advancers over decliners about 5-4 & NAZ went up 25. The MLP index fell 3+ to 220 (still depressed). Junk bond funds were lower & Treasuries rose, bringing lower yields. Oil slid back into the 45s & gold rose 4 to 1278 (more below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
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The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits fell marginally last week to near a 49-year low, pointing to underlying strength in the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 1K to a seasonally adjusted 216K for last week, the Labor Dept said. Initial claims have now fallen in 3 of the last 4 weeks & are just above the 49-year low of 202K reached in the week ended Sep 15. After several years of near-steady falls, claims trended higher between mid-Sep & mid-Dec, prompting concern the US economy was losing a step. It remains unclear how much of that increase was related to the difficulty gov statisticians have in adjusting the claims data for seasonal swings. Claims can be volatile at the end of the year when US holidays throw off a model that the gov uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations. The forecast called for claims increasing to 217K. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week for the 4th time this year, but forecast fewer rate hikes next year & signaled its tightening cycle is nearing an end in the face of financial market volatility & slowing global growth. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 4K to 218K last week. The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid decreased 4K to 1.70M for the latest week. The 4-week moving average of continuing claims fell 1K to 1.68M.
US jobless claims dip in sign of labor market strength
The confidence Americans feel in the economy fell for the 2nd month in a row & touched the lowest level since last summer, perhaps a sign that worries about the 9½-year US expansion have spread from Wall Street to Main Street. The consumer confidence index dropped to 128.1 this month from a revised 136.4 in Nov, the Conference Board said. The forecast called for a 133.3 reading. Confidence is now at its lowest ebb since Jul, putting the index almost 10 points below an 18-year peak set in Oct. Consumer confidence doesn’t take its cues directly from what’s happening on Wall Street, but the stock market's plunge in the past few months is likely reshaping how Americans view the economy. Stock market jitters about the economy might also be weighing on the minds of Americans. Most economists predict the US will slow in 2019 as recent gov stimulus recedes & the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The present situation index, a measure of how Americans view the economy right now, slipped to 171.6 from 172.7. The bigger worry is about 2019. The future expectations index — what Americans think the economy will look like 6 months from now — sank to 99.1 from 112.3 (the lowest reading since Oct 2016 the month before Trump won the presidential election). The economy is doing well by most measures, but a huge drop in the stock market over the past few months has dampened some of the enthusiasm. The Federal Reserve is also raising interest rates, a process that tends to slow key segments of the economy such as housing & investors are worried about an ongoing US trade fight with China & a slowing global economy. The latest drop in consumer confidence won't offer any consolation.
Gold futures settled solidly higher, inching to a fresh 6-month high as the $ eased & US. stocks retreated following a surge the day after Christmas. Gold for Feb rose $8.10 (0.6%) to $1281 an ounce. The contract has closed higher for 3 consecutive sessions, marking the highest finishes for a most-active contract since Jun. Bullion moves come as stocks fall sharply following a major bounce a day earlier from the heaviest Christmas Eve losses on record. European stock markets also closed sharply lower. Meanwhile, a leading $ index that measures the buck against a ½-dozen rivals, eased back by 0.6% to 96.46. Weakness in $s can make gold, which is primarily traded in greenbacks, more attractive to investors using other monetary units.
In an unusually wild day of trading, stocks reversed early steep losses & finished in the black. The Dow had been down more than 600, but buying in the last 2 hours brought back the bulls. However times remain difficult for stocks. The consumer confidence data reported today is sobering for any bull. Demand for gold & Treasuries continues to be strong. Major bumps lie ahead for the US & global economies.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits fell marginally last week to near a 49-year low, pointing to underlying strength in the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 1K to a seasonally adjusted 216K for last week, the Labor Dept said. Initial claims have now fallen in 3 of the last 4 weeks & are just above the 49-year low of 202K reached in the week ended Sep 15. After several years of near-steady falls, claims trended higher between mid-Sep & mid-Dec, prompting concern the US economy was losing a step. It remains unclear how much of that increase was related to the difficulty gov statisticians have in adjusting the claims data for seasonal swings. Claims can be volatile at the end of the year when US holidays throw off a model that the gov uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations. The forecast called for claims increasing to 217K. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week for the 4th time this year, but forecast fewer rate hikes next year & signaled its tightening cycle is nearing an end in the face of financial market volatility & slowing global growth. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 4K to 218K last week. The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid decreased 4K to 1.70M for the latest week. The 4-week moving average of continuing claims fell 1K to 1.68M.
US jobless claims dip in sign of labor market strength
The confidence Americans feel in the economy fell for the 2nd month in a row & touched the lowest level since last summer, perhaps a sign that worries about the 9½-year US expansion have spread from Wall Street to Main Street. The consumer confidence index dropped to 128.1 this month from a revised 136.4 in Nov, the Conference Board said. The forecast called for a 133.3 reading. Confidence is now at its lowest ebb since Jul, putting the index almost 10 points below an 18-year peak set in Oct. Consumer confidence doesn’t take its cues directly from what’s happening on Wall Street, but the stock market's plunge in the past few months is likely reshaping how Americans view the economy. Stock market jitters about the economy might also be weighing on the minds of Americans. Most economists predict the US will slow in 2019 as recent gov stimulus recedes & the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The present situation index, a measure of how Americans view the economy right now, slipped to 171.6 from 172.7. The bigger worry is about 2019. The future expectations index — what Americans think the economy will look like 6 months from now — sank to 99.1 from 112.3 (the lowest reading since Oct 2016 the month before Trump won the presidential election). The economy is doing well by most measures, but a huge drop in the stock market over the past few months has dampened some of the enthusiasm. The Federal Reserve is also raising interest rates, a process that tends to slow key segments of the economy such as housing & investors are worried about an ongoing US trade fight with China & a slowing global economy. The latest drop in consumer confidence won't offer any consolation.
Americans’ confidence in the economy falls again and is at lowest level since summer
Gold futures settled solidly higher, inching to a fresh 6-month high as the $ eased & US. stocks retreated following a surge the day after Christmas. Gold for Feb rose $8.10 (0.6%) to $1281 an ounce. The contract has closed higher for 3 consecutive sessions, marking the highest finishes for a most-active contract since Jun. Bullion moves come as stocks fall sharply following a major bounce a day earlier from the heaviest Christmas Eve losses on record. European stock markets also closed sharply lower. Meanwhile, a leading $ index that measures the buck against a ½-dozen rivals, eased back by 0.6% to 96.46. Weakness in $s can make gold, which is primarily traded in greenbacks, more attractive to investors using other monetary units.
Gold logs 3rd straight gain, nears 6-month peak as stocks relinquish postholiday jump
In an unusually wild day of trading, stocks reversed early steep losses & finished in the black. The Dow had been down more than 600, but buying in the last 2 hours brought back the bulls. However times remain difficult for stocks. The consumer confidence data reported today is sobering for any bull. Demand for gold & Treasuries continues to be strong. Major bumps lie ahead for the US & global economies.
Dow Jones Industrials
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