Dow finished down 22 in a day of volatile trading, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ rose 47 The MLP index rose 1+ to the 245s & the REIT index was flattish in the 346s. Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries traded higher. Oil went up to the 53s & gold fell 4 to 1279.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
A significant drop in the weekly US jobless claims today likely signals another blowout month for jobs creation, despite the prolonged gov shutdown, according to Larry Kudlow, Pres Trump's chief economic adviser. “It suggests very strongly that the jobs report for January will be up,” said Kudlow. “And it may be up a significant amount.” The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits plummeted last week to 199K, a nearly 50-year low. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 13K to 199K. The forecast anticipated claims would actually rise to 222K. “This is the first time since, get this, November 1969 that initial unemployment claims have fallen below 200,000,” Kudlow said. Kudlow added that the lower-than-expected number is indicative of a “very strong” economy. It also seems to suggest that the 34-day partial gov shutdown, which has furloughed hundreds of Ks of federal workers, is having a limited impact so far on the claims data. The number of federal workers filing for jobless claims rose in the week ending in the latest week went up from 15K to 25K. Initially, the White House was bracing for a potentially negative jobs number in Jan when the Dept of Labor releases the payroll data on Feb 1. However, US labor officials said this week they still plan to count the workers as employed because they'll be getting paid retroactively once the gov is up & running again.
January jobs report could be a 'significant' number, Larry Kudlow says
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic crude supplies climbed by 8M barrels for the latest week. That was contrary to expectations for a fall of 600K barrels expected, but the American Petroleum Institute yesterday had reported a climb of 6.6M barrels. Data were released a day later than usual because of the Martin Luther King holiday. Gasoline stockpiles also rose, by 4.1M barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles edged down by 600K barrels, according to the EIA. The expectations were for supply increases of 2.9M barrels for gasoline & 900K barrels in distillates. Mar West Texas Intermediate crude pared earlier gains to trade 13¢ (0.3%) higher at $52.75 a barrel.
The stock market is taking the dreary news fairly well, at least so far. The shutdown is now expected to reduce GDP growth below a 2% rate (if not lower). No news on the trade front except for Ross's gloomy assessment that US-China trade talks are far away from a deal. Today the Dow was flattish for ½ the day, then down, then up & it bounced around in the last hour. The coming days may not be so kind to stocks unless progress is made on the gloomy economic environment.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Pres Trump has agreed to postpone his State of the Union address until the
gov has officially reopened, however some in his administration
appear to believe that could be at a much later date. While lawmakers will vote on 2 separate packages to reopen the gov today, neither is
expected to pass in both chambers. And some administration officials are
appearing to hunker down for the long-haul. The administration made sure recipients of the
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), colloquially referred
to as food stamps, would receive benefits through Feb. However,
there are concerns the Dept of Agriculture will not have the
funds to continue benefits into Mar. The
White House has been working to dull the impact of the shutdown in
other ways, too. The Internal Revenue Service recalled about 60%
of its workforce to help process refunds, for example, with tax season
scheduled to officially open on Mon. The shutdown, now the longest in history, has
entered its 5th week. Federal employees are expected to forego their 2nd round of paychecks this week. Nearly 800K gov workers
are affected by the shutdown. White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hassett said the shutdown could potentially wipe out an entire qtr's worth of economic growth.
Trump admin appears to be bracing for prolonged shutdown
A significant drop in the weekly US jobless claims today likely signals another blowout month for jobs creation, despite the prolonged gov shutdown, according to Larry Kudlow, Pres Trump's chief economic adviser. “It suggests very strongly that the jobs report for January will be up,” said Kudlow. “And it may be up a significant amount.” The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits plummeted last week to 199K, a nearly 50-year low. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 13K to 199K. The forecast anticipated claims would actually rise to 222K. “This is the first time since, get this, November 1969 that initial unemployment claims have fallen below 200,000,” Kudlow said. Kudlow added that the lower-than-expected number is indicative of a “very strong” economy. It also seems to suggest that the 34-day partial gov shutdown, which has furloughed hundreds of Ks of federal workers, is having a limited impact so far on the claims data. The number of federal workers filing for jobless claims rose in the week ending in the latest week went up from 15K to 25K. Initially, the White House was bracing for a potentially negative jobs number in Jan when the Dept of Labor releases the payroll data on Feb 1. However, US labor officials said this week they still plan to count the workers as employed because they'll be getting paid retroactively once the gov is up & running again.
January jobs report could be a 'significant' number, Larry Kudlow says
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic crude supplies climbed by 8M barrels for the latest week. That was contrary to expectations for a fall of 600K barrels expected, but the American Petroleum Institute yesterday had reported a climb of 6.6M barrels. Data were released a day later than usual because of the Martin Luther King holiday. Gasoline stockpiles also rose, by 4.1M barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles edged down by 600K barrels, according to the EIA. The expectations were for supply increases of 2.9M barrels for gasoline & 900K barrels in distillates. Mar West Texas Intermediate crude pared earlier gains to trade 13¢ (0.3%) higher at $52.75 a barrel.
EIA reports an 8 million-barrel weekly jump in U.S. crude supply
The stock market is taking the dreary news fairly well, at least so far. The shutdown is now expected to reduce GDP growth below a 2% rate (if not lower). No news on the trade front except for Ross's gloomy assessment that US-China trade talks are far away from a deal. Today the Dow was flattish for ½ the day, then down, then up & it bounced around in the last hour. The coming days may not be so kind to stocks unless progress is made on the gloomy economic environment.
Dow Jones Industrials
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