Dow sank 182, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ pulled back 119. The MLP index fell 4+ to 175 & the REIT index added 2 to the 432s. Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were pretty much even. Oil dropped 1+ to the 63s & gold was even at 1767 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The global tally of confirmed cases of the coronavirus-borne illness COVID-19 climbed above 150M, & India set yet another one-day case record, as the Indian army opened its hospitals in the latest effort to address a dire humanitarian crisis. India counted 386K new cases in the last 24 hours, the most for any country in a single day since the start of the pandemic. Those numbers are understood to be understated as the nation of almost 1.4B people's healthcare system is completely overwhelmed. Patients are dying while waiting in ambulances to be admitted to overcrowded hospitals. And the vaccine program is stumbling, even though India is the world's biggest vaccine maker. The global tally of confirmed cases of the coronavirus illness COVID-19 climbed above 150M & India set yet another one-day case record, as the Indian army opened its hospitals in the latest effort to address a dire humanitarian crisis. The country is also struggling with a “double-mutant” COVID variant, that seems far more infectious than the original virus. Called the B.1.617 strain, the new variant has 2 spike proteins instead of one. The World Health Organization said earlier this week that the variant has now been found in at least 17 countries. Elsewhere, Brazil's death toll rose above 400K, the 2nd highest in the world after the US. Latin America is another hot spot in the pandemic, accounting for 35% of all deaths in the latest week, >despite being home to just 8% of the world’s population. The US vaccine program, meanwhile, continues to show good progress. The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s vaccine tracker is showing that 305M doses had been delivered to states, 237M doses had been administered & 144M people had received at least one shot, equal to 43.3% of the population. More than 100M people are now fully vaccinated, though some are in the 2-week period after vaccination during which protective antibodies are believed to develop. That's equal to 30% of the population. Among Americans 65 & older, 37M people are fully vaccinated, equal to 68.4% of that group. Almost 45M people in that age bracket have received a first jab, covering 82% of that population.
India sets another COVID case record and Brazil’s health minister makes plea for vaccines
Dallas Fed Pres Robert Kaplan said that he thinks the central bank should begin discussions on slowing down, or tapering, its $120B of monthly asset purchases. “At the earliest opportunity, I think it will be appropriate for us to start talking about adjusting those purchases,” Kaplan said. The Fed has said it would not start to taper its asset purchases until it had seen “substantial further progress” in meeting its two goals of full employment and 2% inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he didn't want the central bank to begin “talking about talking about” tapering yet. And Wed, Powell reiterated he thought talks of a taper were premature. Based on Powell’s tone, many economist think that the Fed might not start those discussions until late summer. Kaplan is in the more hawkish camp on monetary policy. Earlier this month, he said he thought the first interest rate hike might come in 2022. The median forecast of Fed officials is that liftoff of interest rates won't happen until 2024 at the earliest. In his remarks, the Dallas Fed chief said he thought the economy was improving & would soon reach the Fed's prerequisite of “substantial further progress.” “I think we’re going to reach that benchmark sooner than I would have expected in January,” he added. “I think the U.S. economy would be far healthier when we have the ability to start weaning off those purchases,” he continued. Kaplan said the asset purchases were very important last year given strains in financial markets & the economy. But conditions have changed that make adjusting the purchases appropriate, he said. “We’re now at a point where I’m observing excess and imbalances in financial markets,” he said. Stocks & the housing market are at historically high levels.
Fed should start talking about tapering, Kaplan says
Gold futures inched lower to post a fall for the week, on the back of strength in Treasury yields, but prices still scored their first monthly gain of the year. Gold for Jun fell pocket change to settle at $1767.70 an ounce. Based on the most-active contracts, gold fell 0.6% for the week, but saw a monthly rise of about 3% — the first monthly climb of the year so far — for the week, settling up 5.5% for the month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was at 1.629% today, trading up for the week, but down for the month. Rising yields can be a headwind for gold because they raise the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets.
Gold falls for the week, but scores first monthly gain of the year
Oil futures settled with a loss,
but finished the month higher. Oil prices ended the month with a solid
gain as mostly upbeat economic data & good earnings results suggest
the global recovery is gaining traction and potentially accelerating,
which in turn has bolstered the demand outlook. Jun West Texas Intermediate
crude fell $1.43 (2.2%) to settle at $63.58 a barrel. The Jun contract ended the month with a climb of
more than 7%.
Oil futures fall for the session, but tally a gain for the month
The Dow was up 900 in Apr, but that advance came in the first 2 weeks. Then it was pretty much flat. More gov spending to stimulate the economy at a time when the recovery is going well does not make sense. Even the Fed is thinking about when to end its massive bond buying program which is aimed at stimulating the economy. At the same time, inflation is beginning to raise its ugly head!
Dow Jones Industrials
