Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Markets edge higher as traders await Fed

Dow climbed 68, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ gained 24.  The MLP index fell 1 to 191 & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 478s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were back in demand.  Oil slid back to the 83s & gold was off 4 to 1791.  

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil83.40
+0.65+0.8%


















GC=FGold    1,791.50
 -4.30 -0.2%












 

 

 



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The US would have the highest personal income tax rate in the developed world under a White House proposal that would overhaul the nation's tax code in order to fund Pres Biden's signature spending plan.  The framework that Biden unveiled costs roughly $1.75T, which includes funding for universal pre-kindergarten, a one-year expansion of the child tax credit, a modified Medicaid expansion & clean energy tax credits, among other things.  It relies on a 15% corp minimum tax, surtaxes on the top sliver of US households, stricter tax enforcement, taxes on corp stock buybacks & higher taxes on US companies' foreign earnings.  But the Biden team's proposal, which comes after months of negotiations among Dems, would push the average top tax rate on personal income to 57.4%, the highest rate in the 38-member Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development, according to anew analysis published by the non-partisan Tax Foundation.  The top sliver of US households would face a 5% surcharge on modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) above $10M, plus a 3% charge on MAGI above $25M, for a total increase of 8% – which is equivalent to about a 9.1% tax rate on taxable income.  The Build Back Better plan would also close provisions in the tax code that allow some wealthy taxpayers to avoid paying the 3.8% Medicare surtax on their earnings by strengthening a net investment income tax for anyone earning more than $400K.  Under current law, the top marginal tax rate on ordinary income is scheduled to increase from 37% to 39.6% in 2026 when parts of Reps' 2017 tax law expire.  That means the top marginal tax rate on personal income at the federal level would rise as high as 51.4% in 2026, or roughly 52.5% on the basis of taxable income.  "As policymakers explore options to raise revenue, they should keep in mind how the U.S. compares to other countries and what the economic effects might be," the analysis said.  "Raising the top marginal tax rate on ordinary income to the highest in the OECD will damage U.S. competitiveness. It will also reduce incentives to work, save, invest, and innovate, with broad implications for the U.S. economy."

Biden's tax plan would push top tax rate to highest among developed countries

Pfizer (PFE) beat Q3 expectations & raised its 2021 forecast again even as sales of its top product, the COIVD-19 vaccine Comirnaty, slipped in the US. placeholder Soaring intl sales of the preventive shots helped pushed total Comirnaty revenue close to $13B in the qtr & it now expects to book about $36B in sales from the vaccine this year.  That' up from a Q2 forecast for $33.5B & more than twice what PFE expected at the start of the year.  In the US, Q3 sales of the vaccine fell to $1.59B from a little over $2B the previous qtr.  The forecast expected that, as demand fell following the rush to get shots shortly after vaccine eligibility expanded in the spring.  But demand appears to be picking up again & will be helped by booster shotsplaceholder.  Overall adjusted EPS was $1.34 as revenue more than doubled to $24.1B.  The forecast called for EPS of $1.08 on about $22.6B in revenue.  Operational revenue 7% in Q3 not counting the COIVD-19 vaccine.  PFE now expects 2021 adjusted EPS of $4.13-4.18 on revenue ranging from $81-82B.  For 2021, analysts forecast EPS of $4.04 per share on $78.8B in revenue.  The stock jumped 1.76 (4%).
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer beats third-quarter expectations despite vaccine sales slipping

This week, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce the unwinding of its monthly bond-buying program – a measure it started to support the economy during the pandemic.  However, the bigger story for markets is how the central bank will discuss inflation.  That’s because report after report of hotter-than-anticipated inflation has ramped up expectations that the Fed will fight the trend of higher prices by beginning to raise interest rates next year, about 6 months sooner than the last Federal Reserve forecast.  Economists expect the central bank to say after its 2-day meeting concludes Wed that it will begin winding down its $120B in monthly bond purchases by mid-Nov or Dec & end the program entirely by the middle of next year.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made an effort to emphasize that the end of the program does not signal the start of a new rate hike cycle & he is expected to repeat that message at his post-meeting briefing tomorrow.  But already traders are pricing in more than 2 interest rate hikes for next year, while the majority of Fed officials do not even see one in 2022 in their most recent forecast.  That's because inflation, now at a 30-year high has become hotter & seems to be lingering longer than the “transitory,” or temporary, description the Fed had included in its recent policy statements.

The Fed is expected to announce end to bond-buying program as investors seek clues on first hike

Stocks are pretty much marking time ahead of the Fed's announcement tomorrow.  The whopper spending packages in Congress are still stuck in the mud as Nancy Pelosi does not have enough votes to get them passed.  Meanwhile the Dow just topped 36K for another record.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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