Dow gained 176, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ went up 132. The MLP index fell 1 to 190 & the REIT index was off 1 to the 479s. Junk bond funds found buyers & Treasuries were pretty much steady (more below). Oil slid back, going below 81, & gold was flattish at 1864.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
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Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about the state of the US economy as consumers grapple with a surge of inflation that has pushed the price of everyday bedrock goods to the highest level in years. A new poll published by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 35% of Americans now call the national economy good – a significant drop from Sep, when 45% said they viewed the economy as good. The current percentage is similar to views in Jan & Feb, before the widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the US. A stunning 65% of Americans called the economy poor, despite solid job gains in Oct that saw the unemployment rate fall to a new pandemic low of 4.8%. Dems & Reps alike are losing faith in the Biden administration's handling of the economy: Only 51% of Dems expect the economy to get better, down from 70% earlier this year. Nearly ¾ (74%) of Reps expect the economy to get worse, a jump from 59% earlier this year. The price squeeze has been bad news for both Biden administration officials as well as Federal Reserve policymakers, many of whom have been downplaying the recent spike in consumer prices as "transitory" & likely to abate as pandemic-induced disruptions in the supply chain faded. That sanguine viewpoint was challenged once again this week by a significant jump in the price for a wide range of items: Gasoline skyrocketed by nearly 50% in the year to Oct, meat was up 14.5% & rent increased by 3.5%.
Americans souring on economy as inflation hits 30-year high
The 10-year Treasury yield was mostly flat today after surging this week amid hotter-than-expected inflation data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was marginally higher at 1.563% & he yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was 1.4 basis points higher at 1.932%. Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%. The 10-year yield ended last week at 1.45%, but shot higher on the reports showing rapid inflation this week. The yield touched as high as 1.58% earlier today's session. Despite this week's reversal, the yield is still only back to levels seen in early Nov & late Oct. The consumer price index released Wed showed prices had jumped 6.2% from a year ago in Oct, which marked the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years. A report today underscored consumers' inflation fears. Consumer sentiment in early Nov dropped to its lowest level in a decade, according to the Univ of Mich.
10-year Treasury yield is mostly flat after a big surge earlier this week
The number of US workers quitting their jobs surged to a record in Sep as openings remained near an all-time high. The total number of quits rose by 164K to a record-high 4.4M, according to the Labor Dept's Job Opening & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This as the number of available positions slipped to 10.4M, but remained near a record high. Americans have been quitting their jobs in droves in recent months as the pandemic has caused many to reevaluate their careers. Some workers are seeking the ability to work from home while others have been lured by higher pay. The changes in the labor force have been dubbed the "Great Resignation." The quits rate (percentage of workers leaving their jobs) was 3%, also an all-time high. Quits increased across a number of industries with arts, entertainment, & recreation (+56K); other services (+47K); & state & local gov education (+30K) among those seeing the biggest impact. Quits decreased in wholesale trade (-30K). Total hires were little changed at 6.5M. The JOLTS report lags the gov's monthly jobs report. The Oct employment report released earlier this month showed hiring picked up last month with employers adding 531K workers, up from 312K in Sep & the unemployment rate slipped 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%.
Number of Americans quitting their jobs skyrockets to record high
There was buying in the last ½ hour, but the big picture is a stock market that is getting more nervous about gloomy inflation numbers as consumer confidence is falling. Currently the Dow is off 330 this week.
Dow Jones Industrials
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