Dow advanced 204 to another record, advancers over decliners 2-1 edged up 31, good enough for another record. The MLP index fluctuated in the 188s & the REIT index went up 2+ to the 481s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued in heavy demand. Oil rebounded 2+ to the 81s & gold jumped 24 to 1817 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
It will take weeks for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to produce a score for Dems' reconciliation slending bill – potentially until Thanksgiving. "The Congressional Budget Office has not shown the American people exactly how much this bill will cost as required by the Congressional Budget Act and the rules of our House," Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said as he railed against the reconciliation bill. "And the CBO reports that they will only arrive as American families get an enormous receipt from their Thanksgiving dinner. There will not be a CBO score until Thanksgiving," he added. That would slam the brakes on efforts from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Pres Biden to pass the reconciliation bill – & then the bipartisan infrastructure bill – on today, assuming that moderate Dems stick to their demand of waiting for a CBO score before voting on reconciliation. According to its website, "On average, it takes about two weeks for CBO to produce a formal estimate, although sometimes estimates are produced the same day they are requested and occasionally the period extends to several weeks." Notably, the 2K-plus-page reconciliation bill is larger than most legislation the CBO considers. But Pelosi yesterday said there is a chance the estimate could come quickly. "We have been all along... we've been sending things to CBO. This is not new to them," Pelosi said. "The CBO also has been – they have most of the information now; they have new information." Pelosi & top Dems in the House projected optimism late yesterday that they could pass their reconciliation bill & the bipartisan infrastructure bill today. That optimism faded away as moderate Dems appeared firm in their demands that the House wait for a CBO score on the reconciliation bill before a vote. Dems can only lose 3 votes & still pass the reconciliation bill. There are about 4 or 5 moderate Dems who are demanding a CBO score before their vote, despite the fact Pelosi is pointing to a score from the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) as evidence enough their bill is fiscally responsible. If moderates stick to their demand of a CBO score before voting on reconciliation, that means the Senate will not get its hands on the bill until almost Dec. Then, Dems will also be up against deadlines to fund the gov, pass a defense authorization bill & avoid a debt default.
Democrats limit retirement contributions in latest spending proposal
A recent poll from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) found nearly ½ of owners it surveyed were experiencing either significant or moderate staffing challenges. “If retailers can keep things on their shelves, and that shippers can get the goods delivered to people’s homes by Christmas, it’ll be really a banner year for holiday spending,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the NRF, who noted the staffing issue hits not only retailers in stores & online, but in the supply chain. Supply chain disruptions & worker shortages could put a crimp in the party. According to the NFIB, 48% of small businesses say supply chain disruptions are having a significant impact. Of those who rely on holiday sales for a significant part of yearly revenue, 38% anticipate such shortages will impact sales. “We are seeing a shortage of workers in distribution and warehouse. Part of that is the timing of getting the products, even from the port, to the timing of these of these products getting into a distribution and warehouse area. They’re juggling hours, they’re juggling people, and people are working long hours,” Kleinhenz said. Retail job openings hit 1.3M in Aug according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Challenger, Gray & Christmas projects 700K workers will be hired this season. The retail sector added 35K jobs in Oct according to BLS. Under Armour (UA) said it’s entering the holiday season with more teammates than it’s had in years past in its retail stores. The company has hired 1000 seasonal workers & is seeking 1000 more workers to be brought on over the next few months. Stephanie Pugliese, UA Pres of North America, said, “The holiday season is always a big peak time for any retailer to hire and make sure that we have enough teammates to satisfy the consumer demand, it really is a long-term investment that we have in the talent of our business. We’ve built our plans around investing in that talent on the go forward.”
Retailers look to staff up ahead of holiday rush with workers in short supply
Pres Biden met with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell & Governor Lael Brainard as the administration decides whom to nominate to lead the central bank for the next 4 years, according to a person familiar with the matter. Powell & Brainard are seen as the 2 most likely candidates to lead the globe’s most powerful central bank, which sets interest rates, works to control inflation & oversees the country's largest banks. The leaker said that the pres has not made a final decision on who will lead the Fed. A choice is expected in the coming days. The Dem-controlled Senate would likely confirm either candidate as Fed chief. The Rep Powell could face resistance from progressives & the Dem Brainard would face opposition from the GOP. At least a handful of moderate Dems & virtually every Senate Rep would be expected to support Powell as an endorsement of his steady hand at the Fed.
Biden meets with Fed leaders Powell and Brainard as nomination decision nears
Gold prices climbed back above $1800 an ounce to post the highest finish since early Sep. Data revealed that the US created more jobs than expected, but a disappointing number of people chose to join the workforce last month & rising inflation dulled prospects for stronger economic growth. US companies added 531K jobs in Oct, with that increase almost double the number of job gains in Sep & well above the 450K new jobs expected. Gold for Dec rose $23 (1.3%) to settle at $1816 an ounce, the highest most-active contract finish since Sep 3. For the week, prices for the front-month contract ended about 1.8% higher. Following the strong jobs data, Treasury yields fell, lowering the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets such as gold, with yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to 1.458%, compared with 1.524% yesterday. Gold futures had climbed 1.7% yesterday as Treasury yields also retreated after the Federal Reserve on Wed announced widely expected plans to begin tapering its bond purchases and signaled it would remain patient on raising interest rates.
Gold tops $1,800, posts highest finish since early September
Oil rallied, rebounding a day after a drop to the lowest price since Oct, but still suffered a loss for a the week, their 2nd in a row. Prices fell yesterday after OPEC+, (members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries & their allies), said it would raise the monthly overall production by 400K barrels a day in Dec, but the group also pushed back against pressure from the Biden administration to pump more oil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Dec climbed $2.46 (3.1%) to settle at $81.27 a barrel. Yesterday's action saw crude tumble 2.5% to settle at $78.81 a barrel, pushing front-month contract prices to the lowest finish since Oct 7. For the week, WTI prices lost 2.8%, for a 2nd weekly loss in a row, following a 9-week streak of gains — the longest for front-month contracts based on records going back to 1983. Jan Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose $2.20 (2.7%) to $82.74 a barrel, with prices down 1.2% this week. Brent tumbled 1.8% yesterday, its lowest finish since Oct 1. Data from Baker Hughes showed the number of active US oil-drilling rigs climbed by 6 to 450 this week– the biggest increase since the week ended Oct 15 — implying a future uptick in production. Dec natural-gas futures fell 3.5% to $5.516 per M British thermal units, with still prices moving up by 1.7% for the week.
Oil rallies back from the lowest prices since October, but suffers a second-straight weekly loss
As predicted, there was some selling in the PM, but buyers returned to trim those losses. The Dow & NAZ finished at record highs as each ginned around 500. Dow is up 2300 since Oct with hardly hiccup along the way.
Dow Jones Industrials
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