Dow finished up 27 (but over 400 below its early gains), decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ slid back 74. The MLP index was up 4+ to the 213s & the REIT index retreated 2+ to the 443s. Junk bond funds continued strong & Treasuries had heavy selling raising the yield on the 10 year Treasury a big 11 basis points to 2.89%. Oil rose 2+ to the 94s & gold was off 10 to 1803 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Walt Disney (DIS), a Dow stock,
reported that total Disney+ subscriptions rose to 152M during
the fiscal Q3r, higher than the 147M forecast. At
the end of the fiscal Q3, Hulu had 46.2M subscribers & ESPN+ had 22.8M. Combined, Hulu, ESPN+ & Disney+ have over
221M streaming subscribers. Also, the company unveiled a new pricing structure that incorporates an advertising-supported Disney+ as part of an effort to make its streaming business profitable. Starting Dec 8 in the US, Disney+ with commercials will be $7.99 per
month — currently the price of Disney+ without ads. The price of ad-free
Disney+ will rise 38% to $10.99 — a $3 per month increase. In addition, DIS lowered its 2024 forecast
for Disney+ to 215-245M subscribers, down 15M
on both the low end & high end of its previous guidance. DIS had previously set its Disney+ guidance in Dec 2020 at
230-260M by the end of fiscal 2024. The company
reaffirmed its expectation that Disney+ will become profitable by the
end of its fiscal 2024 year. Overall, Disney posted
better-than-expected earnings on both the top & bottom line, bolstered
by increased spending at its domestic theme parks. Fiscal Q3 EPS was$1.09 vs 96¢ expected & revenue rose to $21.5B from. $20.96B expected. The stock went up 5.34 (5%).
If you would like to learn more about DIS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/DIS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Disney (DIS) fiscal Q3 2022 earnings
Mortgage rates resumed their upward climb along with home prices. Rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.22% from 4.99%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly data. "Although rates continue to fluctuate, recent data suggest that the housing market is stabilizing as it transitions from the surge of activity during the pandemic to a more balanced market," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. "Declines in purchase demand continue to diminish while supply remains fairly tight across most markets. The consequence is that house prices likely will continue to rise, but at a slower pace for the rest of the summer." Separately, the national median single-family existing-home price rose 14.2% annually to $413K, surpassing $400K for the first time, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). 80% of US metro markets saw double-digit annual price gains. "Home prices have increased at a pace that far exceeds wage gains, especially for low- and middle-income workers," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.
Mortgage rates spike as home prices hit new record
After fighting to repeal the $10K limit on the federal deduction
for state & local taxes (SALT) a group of House Dems say
they will still vote for the party’s spending package without SALT reform. Reps. Josh Gottheimer; Mikie Sherrill & Tom Suozzi, members of the SALT Caucus
who have vowed to oppose a bill without SALT relief, expressed support
for the Inflation Reduction Act after it passed in the Senate. Enacted
thru the Reps' 2017 tax overhaul, the SALT cap has been a
pain point for costly states like New York & New Jersey because
residents can't deduct more than $10K in state & local taxes on
their federal returns. With a slim Dem majority, SALT reform was a sticking point during
Build Back Better negotiations & the House passed an $80K SALT cap increase thru 2030 in its spending package. However, the plan stalled in the Senate after pushback from Sen Joe Manchin. While advocates say the SALT deduction limit hurts middle-class
families, opponents contend removing the cap may primarily benefit
wealthy homeowners. If repealed completely, the top 20% of taxpayers may see more than 96% of the relief, according to a Tax Policy Center report, affecting only 9% of American households. Without
an extension from Congress, the $10K SALT limit will sunset by 2026
along with other provisions from the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017.
House prepares for reconciliation vote without SALT deduction relief
Gold futures finished lower, as a 3-week rally for the precious metal sputtered with investors shifting focus to a rising US stock market instead of on safe-haven plays like gold & the $. Price action Gold futures expiring in Dec dropped $6 to settle at $1807 per ounce, the first down close for the most-active contract since Aug 5. Gold's rebound over the past 3 weeks stalled today, after the precious metal climbed from a low of below $1680 per ounce for the most-active contract to an intraday high of $1824 per ounce yesterday. The retreat came a day after US inflation data for Jul showed signs of a pullback in the pace of sharp consumer-price gains, pegged at a 8.5% annual pace from 9.1% in Jun, which was a 41-year high. In its wake, stocks rallied sharply, the $ retreated & gold edged lower. In recent months, the yellow metal has typically traded inversely to the $ & Treasury yields, as expectations for rapidly higher interest rates helped dull gold's luster.
Gold retreats but holds above $1,800 as recent rally stall
Crude oil futures moved higher, finding support after the Intl Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil-demand growth as summer heatwaves in Europe & tight natural-gas supplies prompt more oil use for power generation. Oil remained higher after OPEC cut its forecast for demand growth in 2022, citing worries over COVID restrictions & geopolitical tensions. West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep rose $2.41 (2.6%) to finish at $94.34 a barrel. Oct Brent, the global benchmark, gained $2.20 (2.3%) to settle at $99.60 a barrel. The IEA said high prices & limited supplies of natural gas in Europe, after Russia cut energy exports to the region, have pushed power plants & heavy industries to look to oil as an alternative fuel source. The IEA said the trend would result in additional oil-demand growth of 380K barrels a day in 2022, with the agency lifting its oil-demand growth forecast by that amount to 2.1M barrels a day. OPEC, meanwhile, cut its estimate of 2022 demand growth to 3.1M barrels a day from a previous forecast of 3.4M barrels a day (mb/d). OPEC described the outlook as still healthy, with total oil demand expected to average around 100 mb/d in 2022. Oil ended a choppy session with gains yesterday, after the EIA said US crude inventories jumped 5M barrels last week. The EU on Mon presented what it described as its final text for restoring the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, signaling it was up to Tehran to take or leave it. Iranian officials have said they delivered an initial response to the draft & would make further points at a later date.
Oil prices lifted as IEA boosts demand forecast
Stocks began the day trading higher, but sellers took command & it was downhill for the rest of the day. The chart below shows Dow was heavily overbought A correction was in order. The inflation news today was underwhelming. Oil has been in the 90s recently, below its highs over 120. Now it's 94. Forecasts vary on how strong economies will be for the rest of the year, but high inflation for food prices seems to be in order. In addition, recession thoughts remain out there.
Dow Jones Industrials
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