Tuesday, August 9, 2022

Markets struggle ahead of inflation report

Dow fell 58, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ dropped 151.  The MLP index was up 1+ to the 106s & the REIT index was steady at 436,  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries saw a little selling (more below).  Oil went up 1 to the 91s & gold added 6 to 1811.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)





 

 




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The fact that workers regret quitting during the Great Resignation underscores a more significant issue: worker needs are not getting met.  That's according to John Morgan, pres of Lee Hecht Harrison (LHH), a global provider of talent acquisition & job recruitment solutions.  According to a recent survey by Joblist, about 26% of people who quit their job during what was dubbed the Great Resignation already regret it.  Additionally, 42% of people who found a new job after quitting said the new gig didn't live up to their expectations.  Not only is this a sign that "Great Regret is happening but also that workers are looking for a better workplace culture & are finding that these needs aren't being met by either company," Morgan said.  Chad Carden, founder of consulting firm The Carden Group, said many employees had been lured away by promises of higher pay, better titles & better perks during the Great Resignation.  Younger professionals, in particular, also had a "heightened expectation" to have more paid time off, schedule flexibility & meaningful work & were willing to make a change to attain this, according to Kelly Lannan, senior VP for emerging customers at Fidelty Investments.  In May, a survey from Fidelity revealed that approximately 61% of young professionals between the ages of 25-35 years old changed jobs in the last 2 years or plan to do so within the following 2 years.  A record number of American workers – 4.5M– quit their jobs in Nov 2021, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  It's a significant uptick from Nov 2020, when 3.2M people quit.  It didn't stop there.  BLS data shows another record 4.5M Americans quit in Mar 2022.

Great Resignation turns to Great Regret as worker needs go unmet

Treasury yields moved slightly higher as investors await some closely watched inflation figures due later in the week.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose nearly 3 basis points to 2.792%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond crossed the 3% threshold once again to trade at 3.011%.  Yields move inversely to prices & a basis point is equal to 0.01%.  The 2-year Treasury yield was up about 2 basis points at 3.243%, continuing to trade far above the longer-term 10-year rate.  That relationship is broadly watched as a potential recession indicator.  Investors are trying to assess the potential pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening efforts.  An unexpectedly robust US jobs report last week seemed to reduce the likelihood of a recession, allowing the central bank the capacity for more aggressive rate hikes as it looks to rein in inflation.  Tomorrow's Jul consumer price index is expected to offer some clarity on the path of interest rate hikes.  That data release is preceded by a fresh batch of economic data today.

U.S. Treasury yields tick up as investors look ahead to key inflation data

Pres Biden signed a bipartisan bill that aims to strengthen US competitiveness with China by investing Bs of $s in domestic semiconductor manufacturing & science research.  Tech execs, union pres's & political leaders from both parties joined Biden at the signing ceremony.  The bill, dubbed the Chips & Science Act, includes more than $52B for US companies producing computer chips, as well as Bs more in tax credits to encourage investment in semiconductor manufacturing.  It also provides tens of Bs of $s to fund scientific research & development, & to spur the innovation & development of other US tech.  The administration also contended that the legislation will “unlock hundreds of billions more” in private spending in the industry.  The White House said that multiple companies, “spurred” by the chips bill, have announced more than $44B in new semiconductor manufacturing investments.

Biden to sign China competition bill to boost U.S. chipmakers

Thoughts about new inflation reports are scary for investors.  And the inverted yield curve (the 2 yield yield is sharply above the 10 year yield) is not going away soon.  That is spooking investors.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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