Dow jumped 414 (near session highs), advancers over decliners a solid 4-1 & NAZ was up 208. The MLP index remained little changed in the 221s & the REIT index went up 5+ to 371. Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were purchased, lowering yields. Oil finished up 1 to the 75s & gold fell 8 to 1989 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
New data on Easter 2023 consumer behavior from Numerator, a Chicago-based data & tech company, reveals that 85% of consumers plan to celebrate Easter this year. Also, according to the DC-based National Retail Federation (NRF), Easter spending is expected to reach a record $24B this year, a $3.2B increase from 2022. With an influx in spending, this Easter Sunday is anticipated to be the biggest one yet. Additionally, Kroger's retail data science, insights & media company, found in its Mar Consumer Digest that most shoppers will make food at home for Easter meals, though in eating at the homes of family or friends was in 2nd place. With high prices still very much on the minds of shoppers, however, Numerator reported that ½ of consumers expect economic hardships to affect their Easter plans. Taking steps to mitigate the impact, 51% of Easter celebrators believe that inflation or a potential economic slowdown will moderately or significantly affect their celebration plans. To save money, they will buy items on sale (58%), use more coupons (37%), prepare budget-friendly foods (29%) & shop at $ or discount stores (26%). Easter is the 2nd-most popular holiday for purchasing candy, noted Numerator, 2nd only to Halloween, with 50% of celebrators intending to buy candy. Meanwhile, consumers with children spend 27% more on candy than those without kids. Consumers with children are also 3 times more likely to purchase Kinder Joy & twice as likely to purchase Nerds, Sour Patch, & M&M Minis. Easter candy buyers are also putting gifts in their shopping baskets, as they are 6 times more likely to purchase bubbles on the same trip, 3.5 times more likely to purchase clay & dough, & twice as likely to purchase action figures or art supplies. Numerator's survey was fielded to 5263 consumers in Jan 2023. NRF's survey of 8499 US adult consumers was conducted Mar 1-7.
Easter spending expected to blossom to a record $24B in 2023
Europe learned its lessons after the financial
crisis & is now in a strong position to weather further stress in its
banking system, several economists & policymakers say. A central
theme at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy was the
potential for further instability in financial markets, arising from
problems in the banking sector, particularly against a backdrop of
tightening financial conditions. The collapse of US-based Silicon Valley Bank & of several other regional lenders in early Mar prompted fears of contagion, furthered by the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by Swiss rival UBS. Policymakers
on both sides of the Atlantic took decisive action & pledged further
support if needed. Markets have staged something of a recovery this
week. Valerio De Molli, managing partner of The
European House, Ambrosetti, said that “uncertainty and anxiety” would continue to plague markets
this year. “The more worrying factor is uncertainty in the
banking industry, not so much about Europe, the ECB has done incredibly well, the European Commission also, the euro
zone is stable & sound and profitable, also, but what could happen
particularly in the United States is a mystery,” De Molli said. De Molli suggested that the collapse of SVB would
likely be “the first of a series” of bank failures. However, he
contended that “the lessons learned at a global level, but in Europe in
particular” had enabled the euro zone to shore up the “financial
robustness and stability” of its banking system, rendering a repeat of
the 2008 financial crisis “impossible.” The
emphasis on “lessons learned” in Europe was echoed by George
Papaconstantinou, professor& dean at the European University
Institute & former Greek finance minister, who also expressed
concerns about the US. “We learned about the need to have fiscal and monetary policy working
together, we learned that you need to be ahead of the markets and not
five seconds behind, always, we learned about speed of response and the
need for overwhelming response sometimes, so all of this is good,”
Papaconstantinou said. He added that the
developments of SVB & Credit Suisse were down to “failures in risk
management,” &, in the case of SVB, also owed to “policy failures in
the U.S.”
It’s the U.S., not Europe’s banking system that’s a concern, top economists say
Sen Joe Manchin threatened to sue the Biden administration over electrical vehicle tax credits. Manchin, chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, said he was prepared to go to court ahead of the Treasury''s expected release of battery sourcing guidance for electric vehicle tax credits this week. "If it goes off the rails and violates the intent of the climate legislation approved in August, I will do whatever I can - if that means going to court and I can do it, I'd do it," Manchin said. Manchin, a regular supporter of the fossil fuel industry's interests in Congress, said he intends to transfer the EV supply chain from China, noting that he will pay attention to how the Treasury will classify processing & manufacturing in determining eligibility for $7500 EV tax credits. "Manufacturing is meant to bring manufacturing back to the United States," he said. "It's not basically allowing everyone to put all the parts and build everything you can for that battery somewhere else and then send it here for assembly." The Treasury said the new rules are expected to result in fewer vehicles qualifying for full or partial credits. The rules for electric vehicles are included in the $430B climate change, healthcare & tax bill dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act passed by Dems in Aug. Manchin accused the Biden administration of flouting the bill's original intent. "Instead of implementing the law as intended, unelected ideologues, bureaucrats and appointees seem determined to violate and subvert the law to advance a partisan agenda that ignores both energy and fiscal security," Manchin added. "The administration is attempting at every turn to implement the bill it wanted, not the bill Congress actually passed."
Manchin reportedly threatens to sue Biden admin over EV tax credits
Gold futures declined, failing to finish above the key $2000-an-ounce level but ending higher for the month as well as in Q1. Gold prices have been boosted this month by concerns about the banking sector, but the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank & Credit Suisse have broadly been contained, making equities more attractive to investors after they rushed to the safety of gold earlier in the month. Pressures are expected to ease in the short term, but also forecast that there will be a high floor under prices, as concerns about the broader economy linger. Gold for Jun fell $11 (0.6%) to settle at $1986 an ounce . Prices based on the most-active contracts finished 8.1% higher for the month & gained 8.8% for the qtr
Gold Futures Settle Higher for The Month and Quarter
Oil futures finished higher, but US prices logged a 5th straight month of declines, as well as a loss for the qtr. It's been a difficult qtr for crude oil prices with expectations that a China reopening would serve to galvanize prices back to $100 a barrel proving to be wildly misplaced. May West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.30 (1.8%) to settle at $75.67 a barrel. Prices based on the front-month contract, lost 1.8% for the month & 5.7% for the first qtr.
U.S. oil futures down 5 months in a row; natural-gas futures drop 50% for the quarter
This was a very choppy time for stocks in Q1. Dow finished about even YTD thanks to an advance of 618 in Mar. Meanwhile gold had a solid gain in Q1. The looming recession & higher interest rates keep getting a lot of attention from just about everybody.
Dow Jones Industrials
