Monday, March 20, 2023

Markets edge higher while gold rises to the highest since April

Dow advanced 382, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was up a modest 45.  The MLP slid lower but stayed in the 213s & the REIT index went up 3+ to the 363s.  Junk bond funds  were little changed & Treasuries had heavy buying, driving up yields.  Oil saw buying in the PM giving it a modest gain to the 67s & gold went up 14 to 1987 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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One section of Credit Suisse's bondholders is set to be wiped out following the struggling bank's takeover by UBS, causing them to see investments worth 16B Swiss francs ($17B) become worthless.  The Swiss regulator FINMA announced yesterday that the additional tier-one bonds, which are widely regarded as relatively risky investments, will be written to zero as part of the deal.  The move has angered Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders as their investments have seemingly been lost, while shareholders will receive payouts as part of the takeover.  Usually, equity investments would be classed as secondary to AT1 bonds.  Therefore, the decision "can be interpreted as an effective subordination of AT1 bondholders to shareholders," Goldman Sachs' credit strategists said in a research note.  "It also represents the largest loss ever inflicted to AT1 investors since the birth of the asset class post-global financial crisis," they added.  After years of losses & difficulties, Credit Suisse's struggles came to a head last week after its biggest investor, Saudi National Bank, said it could not offer any more support to the Swiss bank financially due to regulatory restrictions.  This came just days after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank & Signature Bank in the US sent shock waves thru the banking sector.  The Swiss National Bank, the country's central bank, then said it would support Credit Suisse with up to 50B francs ($54b), but investor concerns remained & the situation became untenable.  The development also sparked concerns about how this could impact global credit markets & AT1 bonds from other major financial institutions.

The $17B wipeout of Credit Suisse bondholders has not gone down well in Europe

Amazon (AMZN) will lay off 9K more employees in the coming weeks, CEO Andy Jassy said.  The cuts are on top of the previously announced layoffs that began in Nov & extended into Jan.  That round totaled more than 18K employees & primarily affected staffers in its retail, devices, recruiting & human resources groups.  AMZN made the decision to lay off more employees as it looks to streamline costs.  It took into account the economy, as well as the “uncertainty that exists in the near future,” Jassy said.  The company just wrapped up the 2nd phase of its annual budgeting process, referred to internally as “OP2.”  “The overriding tenet of our annual planning this year was to be leaner while doing so in a way that enables us to still invest robustly in the key long-term customer experiences that we believe can meaningfully improve customers’ lives and Amazon as a whole,” Jassy added.  The latest round will primarily impact its cloud computing, human resources, advertising & Twitch livestreaming businesses, Jassy continued.  While the company aims to operate leaner this year, Jassy said he remains optimistic about the company's “largest businesses,” retail & Amazon Web Services, as well as other, new divisions it continues to invest in.  The stock fell 1.44.
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Amazon to lay off 9,000 more workers in addition to earlier cuts

The Oracle of Omaha has been in touch with Biden administration officials to lend his assistance during the current banking crisis. placeholder Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has had multiple conversations with Pres Biden's team in recent days.  The calls have centered around Buffett possibly investing in the US regional banking sector in some way & the billionaire Buffett has reportedly given advice & guidance about the crisis.  Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK-B) chief has a long history of stepping in to aid banks in crisis.  Among the companies Buffett has helped in the post are Bank of America (BAC) & Goldman Sachs (GS), a Dow stock.  Buffett gave BAC a cash injection in 2011 after its stock plunged amid losses tied to subprime mortgages.  In 2008, Buffett gave GS a $5B lifeline to shore up the bank following Lehman Brothers' collapse.

Warren Buffett talks banking crisis with Biden team

Gold futures settled at their highest in about 11 months, after briefly topping the $2000-an-ounce mark for the first time in over year, as the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS stoked fears about more banking-sector fallout.  Gold for Apr gained $9 (0.5%) to settle at $1982 per ounce, the highest settlement for a most-active contract since Apr.  Prices touched an intraday high of $2014, the highest since Mar 10.  Last week's gold rally was about the busting of banks in the US & Europe.  There are fears that banks crumbling are just the beginning.  There could be more large & small  corps which need to be rescued, so there is huge safe haven demand in gold.  Long-term damage has been done to the credibility of US banks.  The ICE US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck's strength against a basket of rivals, fell by 0.3% to 103.389.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded as low as 3.2968%, though was last up 9.8 basis points to 3.4856%.  Gold will remain the asset of choice until investors have more confidence that no other financial institutions are at risk.

Dow rises around 350 points as investors assess bank risks ahead of Fed’s next rate decision

Oil prices gave up early losses to finish higher, recouping part of last week's sharp losses.  US oil prices had broken down out of the 2023 trading range to reach multi-year lows last week, with contagion fears stemming from the first bank failures since the last financial crisis triggered massive volatility & significant risk-off money flows early last week.  However, there is technical support for West Texas Intermediate crude dating back to 2021 between $62 and $66 a barrel & WTI is also oversold as it has been since COVID.  Apr WTI crude rose 90¢ (1.4%) to settle at $67.64 a barrel.

Oil Futures Shake off Early Declines to Finish Higher

The bulls were in command today, but the rise was not impressive.  Tech shares were ignored & the advance decline ratio was not impressive.  Gold is gettting a lot of attention by worried invests.  It is up more than 150 this month & has risen from the low 1600s in late Oct.  Thoughts about the Fed & developemtns in the banking industry will dominate investor thinking this week.

Dow Jones Industrials 






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