Monday, March 27, 2023

Markets advance as bank shares rebound

Dow climbed 194 but there was selling in the last hour, advancers over decliners about 5-1 & NAZ was off 55.  The MLP index rebounded 3+ to the 215s & the REIT index flattish in the 354s.  Junk bond funds were bid higher & Treasuries saw heavy selling driving substantially higher yields.  Oil jumped 3+ to the 72s & gold retreated a big 28 to 1955 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Disney (DIS), a Dow stock, will begin layoffs this week, the first of 3 rounds before the beginning of the summer that result in about 7000 job cuts, according to a memo sent by CEO Bob Iger.  The cuts are part of a broader effort to reduce corp spending & boost free cash flow.   Disney said last month it plans to cut $5.5B in costs, including $3B in content spend.  “This week, we begin notifying employees whose positions are impacted by the company’s workforce reductions,” Iger wrote.  “Leaders will be communicating the news directly to the first group of impacted employees over the next four days. A second, larger round of notifications will happen in April with several thousand more staff reductions, and we expect to commence the final round of notifications before the beginning of the summer to reach our 7,000-job target.”  The layoffs were initially announced in Feb.  The job cuts will be cross-company, hitting its media & distribution division, parks & resorts, & ESPN.  “We have made the difficult decision to reduce our overall workforce by approximately 7,000 jobs as part of a strategic realignment of the company, including important cost-saving measures necessary for creating a more effective, coordinated and streamlined approach to our business,” Iger wrote.  “For our employees who aren’t impacted, I want to acknowledge that there will no doubt be challenges ahead as we continue building the structures and functions that will enable us to be successful moving forward.”  Since returning as CEO, Iger has reorganized the company & acknowledged that he'd consider selling Hulu.  DIS will host its annual shareholder meeting Apr 3.  The stock rose 1.53.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/DIS_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Disney will roll out the first of three layoff rounds this week, CEO Bob Iger says in memo

The Federal Reserve's top banking regulator said that the failure of Silicon Valley Bank was due largely to mismanagement, though he noted that regulation & oversight also need to step up.  Fed Governor Michael Barr, the central bank's vice chair for supervision, insisted in prepared remarks to 2 congressional panels that regulators had noted issues with SVB's risk management, but the bank was too slow to respond.  “To begin, SVB’s failure is a textbook case of mismanagement,” he said.  “The bank waited too long to address its problems, and ironically, the overdue actions it finally took to strengthen its balance sheet sparked the uninsured depositor run that led to the bank’s failure.”  Barr is to address the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow, followed by an appearance before the House Financial Services Committee on Wed.  The Fed is conducting a review of the SVB collapse with findings set to be released May 1.  “I am committed to ensuring that the Federal Reserve fully accounts for any supervisory or regulatory failings, and that we fully address what went wrong,” Barr said.  FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg also released his remarks.  He, too, noted the importance of a close look at how both SVB & Signature Bank failed & the implications for regulations & oversight.  “The two bank failures also demonstrate the implications that banks with assets over $100 billion can have for financial stability,” Gruenberg said.  “The prudential regulation of these institutions merits serious attention, particularly for capital, liquidity, and interest rate risk.”  He further noted that the financial system faces “significant downside risks from the effects of inflation, rising market interest rates, and continuing geopolitical uncertainties.”  He cautioned that more Fed rate hikes could increase the kinds of unrealized losses that catalyzed the recent banking stress.  Along with the examination into what happened specifically with SVB, Barr also noted that the probe will examine whether the Fed's testing of risk was adequate.  He pointed out that the supervisors identified problems with SVB’s liquidity risk management as far back as late-2021.  The following year, regulators continued to point out issues & lowered the bank's management rating to “fair.”

Fed’s Barr calls Silicon Valley Bank failure a ‘textbook case of mismanagement’

Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow stock, said it is starting to roll out a faster new version of its Teams communication app for Windows to commercial clients enrolled in a preview program.  The software will become available to all customers later this year & MSFT also promises new versions of Teams for Mac & the web.  Since its 2017 debut, Teams has become the jewel of Microsoft 365, the subscription-based productivity software bundle formerly known as Office 365.  Companies rushed to adopt Teams to keep workers connected thru video calls & text chats during the Covid pandemic.  CEO Satya Nadella said in Jan that more than 280M people use Teams every month, even though many workers are again commuting to offices.  Microsoft Teams had some performance issues in 2020, which the company resolved.  In 2021, with Teams usage still rising, MSFT began building a 2nd generation of the software with an eye toward improving performance, Jeff Teper, pres of collaborative apps & platforms at MSFT, said.  The new version also includes enhancements meant to simplify Teams, building on the more than 400 feature updates MSFT delivered last year, some of them meant to help MSFT catch up with rivals, Teper added.  The stock fell 4.19.
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, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MSFT_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Microsoft says its new version of Teams is twice as fast

Gold futures declined to post back-to-back session losses.  Prices for the metal have been easing back rapidly from last week's banking-scare peaks as the banking depositors' rush for the exits takes a breather, & European & US banking shares rally.  Gold for Apr fell $30 (1.5%) to settle at $1953 an ounce.  Investors helped to boost prices for gold above $2000 last week on an intraday basis.

Gold Futures Post Back-to-Back Session Losses

Oil futures finished at their highest in 2 weeks, finding support as banking concerns eased.  The crystal ball, which had been clouded by the banking crisis, is now showing a profit opportunity.  After the erratic selloff in mid-Mar, cooler heads have started to prevail as traders look at the dip in oil prices as a good entry point.  Natural-gas prices, however, bucked the uptrend among their energy peers to finish at their lowest since Feb 21.  Forecasts pointed to more spring-like temperatures in Apr.  Warmer weather would dull demand for natural gas as a heating fuel.  May West Texas Intermediate crude rose $3.5 (5.1%) to settle at $72.81 a barrel, the highest since Mar 13.  Apr natural gas dropped 13¢ (5.8%) to settle at $2.088 per M British thermal units.

Oil futures finish at highest in 2 weeks, while natural-gas prices drop to lowest since February

Selling in the last hour of trading took the Dow below its session highs.  Dow can't get far away from 32K (see the trend line below).  Between an unsettled bank situation & sluggish economic growth (at best), there is not a lot of good news to look forward to.

Dow Jones Industrials 






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