Thursday, March 30, 2023

Markets rise as investors view the banking crisis as it has eased

Dow was up 141, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 87.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 221s & the REIT index gained 3+ to the 365s.  Junk bond funds continued to be mixed & Treasuries had very slight buying.  Oil advanced 1+ to the 75s & gold went up 15 to 1999 (more on both below).

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that weeks of turmoil within the banking industry could be a sign that efforts to roll back regulations put in place after the 2008 financial crisis have "gone too far."  In remarks prepared for delivery to the National Association for Business Economics, Yellen indicated that additional guardrails may need to be put into place following the stunning collapse of Silicon Valley Bank & Signature Bank earlier in Mar.  "These events remind us of the urgent need to complete unfinished business: to finalize post-crisis reforms, consider whether deregulation may have gone too far and repair the cracks in the regulatory perimeter that the recent shocks have revealed," she said.  Congress approved a sweeping overhaul of the financial system in the years after the last recession that reshaped the banking industry.  But lawmakers passed a bipartisan bill in 2018 dismantling parts of those banking rules, a move regarded as a big victory for small & midsize banks at the time.  The rollback eased regulation on some big banks, granted consumers the right to free credit freezes & provided relief to smaller banks by softening the Volcker Rule, which prohibited banks from making their own investments with customers' deposits.  It also raised the asset threshold at which banks face mandated stress tests to $250B from $50B.  The Biden administration is reportedly preparing to call for federal banking regulators to impose new rules on midsize banks, according to people familiar with discussions.  However, the White House appears unlikely to ask Congress in the immediate future to reverse the changes included in the 2018 deregulation law.  "Regulatory requirements have been loosened in recent years," Yellen said.  "I believe it is appropriate to assess the impact of these deregulatory decisions and take any necessary actions in response."

Yellen warns bank deregulation may have 'gone too far' after SVB failure

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the US increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in Q4-2022, which is lower than the 3.2% growth in the previous qtr.  The revision is mainly due to downward revisions to exports & consumer spending.  The increase in real GDP is due to increases in private inventory investment, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal gov spending, & state & local gov spending, which were partially offset by decreases in residential fixed investment & exports.  Imports, which are subtracted from the calculation of GDP, also decreased.  The increase in private inventory investment was led by manufacturing, mining, utilities & construction.  The increase in consumer spending was driven by an increase in services & a decrease in goods.  The increase in federal gov spending was led by nondefense spending, & the increase in state & local gov spending was due to an increase in the compensation of state & local gov employees.

US GDP Growth Slows in Q4 2022

Ford has joined PT Vale Indonesia & China's Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt in a joint venture nickel processing plant being built in Indonesia to secure supplies of the mineral for its electric vehicle batteries.  The exact amount of the investment was not announced, but the facility will have an annual output of 120K tons of mixed hydroxide precipitate, an extract from nickel ore that is used in EV batteries, when it is fully operational.  "Ford can help ensure that the nickel that we use in electric vehicle batteries is mined, produced within the same ESG standards as part of our business around the world," Christopher Smith, Ford's chief gov affairs officer, said.  "This framework gives Ford direct control to source the nickel we need – in one of the industry’s lowest-cost ways – and allows us to ensure the nickel is mined in line with our company’s sustainability targets, setting the right ESG standards as we scale," Lisa Drake, VP for Ford Model e EV industrialization, said.  "Working this way puts Ford in a position to help make EVs more accessible for millions and to do it in a way that helps better protect people and the planet."  A Ford spokeswoman confirmed that the material will be used in batteries manufactured at the BlueOval SK factory that's currently under construction in Kentucky, which is a joint venture with South Korea's SK On.  Ford does not expect the material to qualify for the electric vehicle purchase tax credits outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act, which will require that at least 40% of the critical materials used in battery packs come from North America or countries with free trade agreements with the US next year and increases to 80% in 2027.  The stock rose 23¢.
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Ford investing in $4.5B Indonesia nickel plant to supply Kentucky-built batteries

Gold futures finished at their highest in over a year, after briefly touching highs above $2000 an ounce.  Gold continues to find support on the dips as it remains supported by falling interest rate expectations, a weakening $, some safe-haven demand, as well as strong physical demand from China.  On top of this, you have strong technical bullish momentum, which is helping to keep the downside limited for now.  Gold for Jun rose $13 (0.7%) to settle at $1997 an ounce.  Based on the most-active contracts, prices, which touched an intraday high of $2002, settled at their highest since Mar 10, 2022.

Gold Futures Settle at Highest in More Than a Year, Near $2,000 an Ounce

May WTI oil climbed $1.40 (1.9%) to settle at $74.37/bbl as oil futures resumed their rise on, with US & global crude prices climbing back to their highest settlements since Mar 13, after ending lower a day earlier.  Oil refiners are coming out of maintenance season & demand for fossil fuels around the globe is surging.  These factors will contribute to what is considered a new season of big petroleum supply draws in the coming weeks after the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday a weekly drop of 7.5M barrels in US crude supplies.

Oil Futures Climb Back to Their Highest Finish in More Than Two Weeks

With adjustments made by banks, the stock market is settling in with the aftermath of the banking crisis.  Dow is up more than 1000 from its low 3 weeks ago.  However, during the same time, gold was being bought by negative thinking investors & is still in strong demand.  Both are not expected to go up at the same time so one can be expected to pull back eventually.

Dow Jones Industrials 






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