Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Markets hesitate ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's 2-day testimony

Dow finished down 245 (off session lows), decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ was off 22.  The MLP index declined 2+ to the 226s & the REIT index was off 4+ to the 368s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries continued in demand.  Oil fell 1+ but held above 70 & gold remained weak, off 21 to 1949 ( more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The Federal Reserve may have paused its aggressive interest rate hikes for now, but that offers little relief for anyone with credit card debt.  The central bank raised interest rates 10 times since last year, the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s, & that has caused credit card rates to hit an all-time high.  “Even though the Fed has hit the pause button on its rate-hiking campaign, the cumulative effect is significant,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.  Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there's a direct connection to the Fed's benchmark.  As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well & credit card rates followed suit.  The average credit card now charges a record 20.69%, nearly 5 percentage points higher than the beginning of last year.  “While the skip means interest rates may not rise again this month, the high credit card interest rates consumers are currently seeing are going nowhere anytime soon,” said Michele Raneri, VP & head of US research & consulting at TransUnion.  Sky-high APRs make credit cards one of the most expensive ways to borrow money from month to month & yet, many Americans continue to take on ever-increasing amounts of debt.  While balances are higher, nearly ½ of credit card holders carry credit card debt from month to month, according to a Bankrate report.  “Paying down high-cost, variable-rate debt is an urgent priority for households,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Average credit card interest rate nearly 21%, but 0% offers are still available, experts say

Being wealthy means different things to different people.  The threshold of wealth is explored in the recent 2023 Modern Wealth Survey, an annual examination by Charles Schwab of how Americans think about saving, spending, investing and overall wealth.  According to Charles Schwab, this year's survey of 1000 respondents revealed there is a paradox between how people define wealth for themselves & how they define it for others.  The data also demonstrated that the 48% of Americans who feel wealthy today have an average net worth of $560K, compared to the $2.2M they say it takes to be considered wealthy.  The survey shows about 2/3 of Americans (62%) say being able to enjoy healthy relationships with loved ones better describes wealth than having a lot of money.  And 7 in 10 say wealth is more about not having to stress over money than having more of it.  Respondents were also asked to share what it means to be wealthy in their own words, &, according to the findings of the survey, Americans mention their well-being (40%) more often than money (32%) & assets (26%).  "My interpretation is that we are looking at what money will do for us a little bit more in terms of lifestyle rather than dollar amount," Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning at Charles Schwab told FOX Business.  "Wealth today is more about healthy relationships with family/friends, good health and career flexibility than having more money."  Age also seemed to play a role in wealth perceptions.  8 in 10 baby boomers revealed wealth is more about enjoying experiences (79%) & not having financial stress (83%) than having nice things or accumulating more $s.  "We’re seeing these trends at Schwab as well," Jonathan Craig, managing director and head of investor services at Charles Schwab said.  "When people think about managing their finances and building wealth, it’s so much more personal than just money and investments. How they invest and what they invest in reflects their unique goals and passions."  Craig said respondents value experiences & relationships in their lives.

New survey reveals how much it takes for Americans to be considered wealthy

Eli Lilly (LLY) said it struck a $2.4B deal to acquire Dice Therapeutics (DICE) in a bid to bulk up its treatment portfolio for immune-related diseases.  LLY will pay $48 per share in cash to buy DICE, representing around a 40% premium to where the company's shares closed on Fri.  The transaction is expected to close in Q3.  DICE share price jumped more than 37% to just under the purchase price.  “In combination with its novel technology and expertise in drug discovery, DICE's talented workforce and passion for innovation will enhance our efforts to make life better for people living with devastating autoimmune diseases,” said Patrik Jonsson, LLY exec VP.  DICE is a biopharmaceutical company that uses a proprietary technology platform to develop new oral therapeutic drugs for autoimmune diseases, in which the body's immune system mistakenly attacks a person's own cells instead of protecting them.  LLY shares went up 5.96 & DICE stock jumped 12.60 - 37% on the buyout news.

Eli Lilly to acquire Dice Therapeutics for $2.4 billion

Gold futures fell, pressured by $ strength after strong US May housing starts & building permits data, as homebuilders ramped up building single-family homes to meet strong demand from buyers, while investors looked ahead to testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell starting tomorrow.  Gold for Aug fell $23 (1.2%) to settle at $1947 an ounce.  US markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday.  Gold prices were lower today as traders assessed the US May housing data that topped estimates.

Gold prices fall on strong dollar, U.S. housing data

US crude futures finished 1.8% lower at $70.50 a barrel in a choppy trading session disrupted by a holiday-shortened week & today's expiration of the front-month contract for Jul delivery.  Selling pressure came in part from a report indicating the Biden administration was holding indirect bilateral talks with Iran regarding the curtailing of Tehran's nuclear program & there is a feeling that any deal could also make it easier for Iran to increase oil export.

WTI Oil Ends Lower as Iran Talks Spark Oversupply Concerns

Dow is up 1145 in Jun & entitled to a rest.  As usual, Powell's testimony will get a lot of attention in the next 2 days.  The Dow chart below shows 34K has been a significant ceiling for the Dow to crack.        

Dow Jones Industrials 







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