Dow went up 189 (over 34K once again) with significant buying in the last hour of trading, but advancers only modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ gained 202. The MLP index fell 1+ to the 224s & the REIT index was flattish in the 368s. Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries continued to see modest selling. Oil gave back 3+ to 67 & gold was off 6 to 1970 n(more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
US consumers' anxieties over inflation in the short term have declined to the lowest point in 2 years, but their concerns over obtaining credit have ticked up, according to new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows Americans' anticipation of inflation a year from now fell by 0.3% to 4.1%, the lowest reading since May 2021. However, the percentage of respondents who expect inflation to rise in 3 to 5 years rose to 3% & 2.7%, respectively. But more Americans also expect to see a credit crunch in their households, according to the survey conducted last month. Expectations of credit access declined from a year ago, according to the New York Fed, while the share of people who said it is now easier to access credit declined. Consumers also expressed pessimism about accessing credit in the future, with more respondents saying they expect tighter credit conditions a year from now & the number of people who anticipate looser conditions fell. The survey's findings are perhaps unsurprising given that the latest consumer price index (CPI) shows inflation has fallen to 4.9% from last year's peak of 9.1%, although it remains uncomfortably high at more than double the pre-pandemic average. At the same time, fears of a credit crunch have risen amid the Fed's aggressive campaign to hike rates in its battle to tame rising prices. The US consumers' rising concerns their credit access could dry up also comes as Americans collectively carry a record $1T in household debt & the average annual credit card interest rate hit an all-time high of 20.3%.
Consumers pessimistic about credit as inflation expectations ease
The Federal Trade Commission is set to file for an injunction today seeking to block Microsoft's (MSFT), a Dow & NAZ stock, proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard, a person familiar with the matter said. By filing for an injunction, the FTC is seeking to stop the transaction from going thru before the Jul 18 deadline. The FTC had already sued to block the $68B acquisition,
choosing to bring the case before its internal administrative law
judge. Thru that trial-like process, the judge would make an initial
decision that could be appealed to the full commission for a vote. After
that, MSFT could appeal to a federal court should the decision not
go its way. The case is set to go before the administrative law judge
in Aug. An appeal of the UK's Competition & Markets Authority's decision to block the merger is also scheduled to take place this summer shortly after the acquisition deadline. “We
welcome the opportunity to present our case in federal court,” Pres Brad Smith said. “We believe accelerating the legal
process in the U.S will ultimately bring more choice and competition to
the market.” The stock rose 5.06.
If you would like to learn more about MSFT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MSFT_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7
FTC will try to block Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard
Disruptions at West Coast ports, particularly the major California hubs at the Ports of Long Beach & Los Angeles, & ongoing labor negotiations have raised concerns about supply chain woes hitting the US economy during the peak shipping season. The US Chamber of Commerce, the largest trade group representing American businesses, sent a letter to Pres Biden on Fri warning about "premeditated and disruptive service actions that are slowing operations at several major West Coast ports during ongoing contract negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA)." "With continued and potentially expanded service disruptions at these ports heading into peak shipping season, we urge your Administration to intervene immediately and appoint an independent mediator to help the two parties reach an agreement that prevents significant economic harm to American families and the economy," wrote Suzanne Clark, CEO of the US Chamber of Commerce. Clark said the service disruptions "follow a familiar pattern of negotiations between the PMA and ILWU over the last twenty years," noting the 2002 slowdowns & 11-day shutdown of West Coast ports, work stoppages at various shipping hubs that lasted 3 weeks in 2008 & 2014 work slowdowns. The ILWU’s collective bargaining agreement expired last Jul & the current round of negotiations – which began on May 10, 2022 – is yet to yield an agreement. The ILWU represents over 22K longshore workers at 29 West Coast ports, all of whom would be covered by the collective bargaining agreement that’s currently being negotiated. The PMA, which represents shipping lines & terminal operators at West Coast ports, sent a tweet on Fri blaming a "series of coordinated and disruptive work actions led by the ILWU" at several ports for slowing down port operations. For example, the PMA said that at the Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach, the ILWU declined to dispatch "lashers" who secure cargo for trans-Pacific voyages which caused those vessels laden with US exports to sit idle at the docks unable to depart. The union said that it "remains committed to bargaining a contract that is fair and equitable and represents the hard work and contributions of its members toward the ongoing success of the multi-billion-dollar shipping industry." It also accused the PMA of "using the media to leverage one-sided information in [an] attempt to influence the process."
Problems at major US ports could delay your packages
Gold futures declined for a 2nd session in a row. With US benchmark stock indices up along with the $ & Treasury yields, it would be a surprise if gold didn't fall today. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause interest-rate hikes at its meeting this week is pretty much 100% priced in, so all eyes are on Wed's language & dot plots. Gold for Aug fell $7 (0.4%) to settle at $1969 an ounce.
Gold Futures Post Back-To-Back Session Declines
Oil futures declined, with US benchmark crude posting its lowest settlement since mid-Mar. Disappointing economic numbers out of China continue to be a concern given the country's outsized influence in expected crude demand growth this year. Additionally, trading continues to keep a close eye on Federal Reserve policy, where support for the $ typically translates to weaker crude prices. Jul West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.05 (4.4%) to settle at $67.12 a barrel, the lowest price for a front-month contract since Mar 17.
U.S. oil futures post lowest settlement since mid-March
No interest rate hike on Wed is widely accepted in the market. Afterwards, more will be learned about any plans for the future. While the major indices had good gains today, market breadth was weak indicating there was less strength in the market's rise suggests.
Dow Jones Industrials
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