Dow added 43, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ was up 20. The MLP index retreated 2+ to the 226s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 368s. Junk bond funds remained mixed & Treasuries had limited selling, raising yields slightly. Oil fell 1 to close just over 70 & gold gave back 2 to 1975 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
A majority of economists expect the Federal
Reserve to pause its interest-rate hike campaign next week for the first time
in 15 months, despite underlying signs of inflationary pressures within
the economy, according to a new survey which showed that most economists anticipate the Federal Open Market
Committee will hold rates steady at its Jun 13-14 meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell
has hinted the central bank will likely forego a rate increase in Jun
in order to give policymakers time to evaluate the broader economic
impact of 10 consecutive hikes. "Having
come this far, we can afford to look at the data and the evolving
outlook and make careful assessments," Powell said during a Fed research
conference in May. A number of central bank officials have reiterated that message,
stressing the need to examine how tighter monetary policy is affecting
the economy. However, a handful of more hawkish officials,
including St Louis Fed Pres James Bullard & Cleveland's Loretta
Mester, have hinted they are open to raising rates for the 11th straight time in Jun. About 40% of the survey economists expect a dissent at the meeting, a change from the nearly unified votes over the past year. The economists are divided over whether the Fed will resume rate
hikes over the summer, or whether the current target of 5.00-5.25%
represents the peak. Roughly 1/3 of respondents are bracing for an
11th rate hike in Jul. Although inflation has eased from a peak of 9.1%, it remains about more than double the pre-pandemic average & well above the Fed's 2% target rate. On top of that, the labor market remains uncomfortably tight, defying expectations for a slowdown.
Fed expected to pause 15-month rate hike campaign next week, survey shows
In Mar, only 2.6% of all mortgages in the US were in some stage of delinquency, according to the loan performance insights report by CoreLogic. That marked a 0.3 year-over-year percentage point decrease and the lowest level in more than 2 decades, CoreLogic said. The organization defines delinquency as being at least 30 days past due, including those in foreclosure. CoreLogic also found how different stages of delinquency played out in Mar:
- Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.1%, unchanged from Mar 2022
- Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.3%, unchanged from Mar 2022
- Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 1.1%, down from 1.5% in Mar 2022
"The U.S. mortgage delinquency rate fell to a historic low in March, reflecting the lowest U.S. unemployment rate in more than 50 years," Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic, said. "While a slowing economy could cause increases in job losses and mortgage delinquencies, years of home equity gains will provide borrowers who fall behind on their payments with a cushion." "This equity should protect many homeowners from foreclosures," Boesel continued. "There is no current projection that the U.S. foreclosure rate will reach the same level as it did during the housing crisis more than a decade ago."
Mortgage delinquency rates drop to all-time low: CoreLogic
Netflix (NFLX) subscriptions jumped in the days after it put a stop to users sharing their passwords on May 23, according to new data compiled by streaming analytics company Antenna. The
streaming platform added more new subscriptions between May 25 & May
28 than in any other 4-day period since Antenna began compiling the
information in 2019. Over that period, average daily signups peaked at
73K from May 26-27, NFLX saw 100K new daily
sign-ups. Over that period, average daily signups peaked at 73K & from
May 26-27, NFLX saw 100K new daily subscribers join the
streaming service. Meanwhile, the company said that more than 100M people are accessing NetFLX content by using borrowed passwords. Its solution is to force users who share an account outside the
same home to pay an additional $7.99 a month to watch, while limiting
the number of additional members that paying customers can add to their
account. The monthly fee for sharing passwords is $2 less a month than a basic subscription but $1 more than the ad-supported plan. The stock gained 10+ (3%).
If you would like to learn more about NFLX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/NFLX_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7
Netflix subscriptions jump, password crackdown pays off
Gold prices settled lower, but held onto a modest gain for the week, their 2nd in a row, on the back of overall weakness in the $. Traders looked to US inflation data & the outcome of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, both due next week, as the catalysts for gold's next big move. Gold futures for Aug fell $1 to settle at $1977 per ounce. The pullback in gold prices today was likely due to a combination of profit taking with concerns about the Fed's decision next week & next month on interest rates, as well as inflation numbers also due next week.
Gold Posts a Weekly Gain Ahead of Next Week’s U.S. Inflation Data, Fed Decision
Oil futures finished lower, contributing to a loss for the week as subdued China data fed concerns over the outlook for energy demand. Prices have failed to find much support in the wake of Saudi Arabia's decision last weekend to voluntarily cut more of its oil production in Jul. West Texas Intermediate crude for Jul fell $1.12 (1.6%) to settle at $70.17 a barrel, leaving front-month prices for the US benchmark down 2.2% for the week. Aug Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost $1.17 (1.5%) at $74.79 a barrel, for a weekly loss of 1.8%. However, traders faded the move up, as the Saudi cut would only remove 1/3 of a single day's worth of global oil production over the course of Jul. That will not meaningfully impact supply & demand dynamics.
Oil Futures Tally a Second Weekly Decline
Dow traded choppy but without wild swings in today's session. Everybody is very nervous about what is coming next week. For the week, Dow was up a modest 115. At least it's a gain!
Dow Jones Industrials
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