Monday, September 11, 2023

Markets edge higher ahead of inflation and retail sales data this week

Dow went up 22, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 73.  The MLP index was about even in the 239s & the REIT index fell 1 to the 361s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries saw more selling, raising yields (more below).  Oil crawled higher in the 87s & gold added 4 to 1946.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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The 10-year Treasury yield rosy as investors awaited key economic data due this week that could provide additional clues about the outlook for interest rates.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by 4 basis points to 4.298% & the 2-year Treasury yield was last trading about flat at 4.993%.  Yields & prices move in opposite directions & 1 basis point equals 0.01%.  A report said that there was a consensus in the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold when the central bank meets next week.  Fed futures put the chance of the Fed staying put on Sep 20 at 93% following the report.  Whether the Fed hikes again this year is up in the air.  Investors braced themselves for the release of inflation data for Aug, with the consumer price index & producer price index slated for Wed & Thurs, respectively.  The figures are likely to inform the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy moves.  In recent weeks, several central bank officials have indicated that economic data will be crucial in the Fed's upcoming interest rate decisions.  That comes as concerns about the possibility of rates going higher still have grown among investors in recent weeks after a series of strong data & higher energy prices, which some investors took as a sign of continuing inflationary pressures.  This week's inflation data could therefore either add to these fears or calm them.

10-year Treasury yield rises as investors look ahead to key inflation data 

A deposit of lithium recently discovered along the Nevada-Oregon border may be among the world's largest, having potentially huge implications for the transition to electric vehicles.  Volcanologists & geologists from Lithium Americas Corp, GNS Science & Oregon State University reported their findings in a paper for Science Advances, published Aug 31.  The deposit exists in the McDermitt Caldera, a caldera approximately 28 miles long & 22 miles wide.  It is believed that the caldera contains 20-40M metric tons of lithium – a figure that would dwarf deposits in Chile & Australia.  Belgian geologist Anouk Borst told Chemistry World that the findings "could change the dynamics of lithium globally, in terms of price, security of supply and geopolitics."  Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan said that the geology "appears promising" but cautioned that there hasn't "been significant prospecting in the area."  "Obviously worthy of exploration. Definitely not worth changing anyone's mid-term plans.  Yet," Zeihan said, arguing that building up processing infrastructure should be first priority.  "Regardless of where we get ore from, we know we're going to have to be able to process lithium ore into concentrate to make lithium metal and batteries and such."  The researchers' paper comes as automakers, threatened by possible shortages of lithium for EV batteries, are racing to lock in supplies. 

Huge discovery could change everything from electric vehicles to geopolitics

Qualcomm (QCOM) said that it will supply Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, with 5G modems for smartphones thru 2026.  QCOM had previously said they expected AAPL to use an internally developed 5G modem starting in 2024.  The continued sales to AAPL will boost QCOM's handsets business, which reported $5.26B in sales in the qtr ended in Jun & could soften the blow of potentially losing a critical customer.  About 21% of QCOM's fiscal 2022 revenue of $44B came from AAPL.  QCOM currently supplies AAPL with 5G modems for its iPhones, but AAPL has been working to build its own modems to move away from QCOM chips.  It purchased Intel's (INTC), a Dow stock, smartphone modem division in 2019 to build its own modem.  However, analysts have suggested that it will be challenging for AAPL to move away from QCOM's chips because of their complexity.  QCOM also makes money from AAPL thru cellular licensing fees, which were about $1.9B in 2022.  QCOM stock rose 3.31.
If you would like to learn more about QCOM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/QCOM_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Qualcomm says it will supply Apple with 5G modems for iPhones through 2026

There is not much excitement today.  Later this week inflation data & retail sales will drive the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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