Thursday, September 7, 2023

Markets fall on concerns about higher interest rates

Dow recovered 41, declliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ declined 144.  The MLP index inched up to 238 & the REIT index was little changed in the 362s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries had limited buying, slightly lowering yields (more below).  Oil was flattish in the 87s & gold eased back 1 to 1942.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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Treasury yields dipped as investors assessed the possibility of further rate hikes & a batch of economic data that suggested ongoing inflationary pressures & labor market strength.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury last traded at 4.274%, after falling nearly 2 basis points & the yield on the 2-year Treasury fell nearly 3 basis points to 4.997%, hovering near the 5% level.  Yields & prices move in opposite directions & 1 basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.  Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook has spread amongst investors as recent data signals continuing inflationary pressures & a tight labor market.  Traders assessed a series of economic reports today, further adding to concerns that the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle may not be over just yet.  This included fewer-than-expected jobless claims & a greater-than-expected uptick in labor costs for the 2nd qtr.  This comes after the ISM Services index showed a bigger-than-forecast expansion of the services sector in Aug.  Markets have also grappled in recent days with a rise in oil prices.  Markets are still pricing in a 93% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged when it meets later this month according to CME's FedWatch tool.  Expectations for a rate hike at the Nov however were last at roughly 45%.

Treasury yields inch lower as investors weigh interest rate path ahead 

The ISM Services Index registered 54.5%, 1.8 percentage points (pp) higher than the Jul reading of 52.7%.  The composite index indicated growth in Aug for the 8th consecutive month after a reading of 49.3% in Dec 2022, which was the first contraction since Jun 2020 (45.4%).  “Thirteen industries reported growth in August. The Services PMI®, by being above 50 percent for the eighth month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector. The composite index has indicated expansion for all but three of the previous 162 months,” said Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.  The Business Activity Index registered 57.3%, a 0.2 pp increase compared to the reading of 57.1% in Jul.  The Inventories Index expanded to 57.7%, up 7.3 pp from Jul's figure of 50.4%.  The Employment Index registered 54.7%, up 4 pp from the Jul figure of 50.7%.  Comments from respondents include: “Hiring is stable, with quality employees available.”  The New Orders Index registered 57.5%, 2.5 pp higher than the Jul reading of 55%.  The index expanded in Aug for the 8th consecutive month after contracting in Dec for the first time since May 2020.   Comments from respondents include: “Sales on a national level have been strong” & “Material availability has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels.”

ISM: Service sector expanded in August

Defense giant Lockheed Martin (LMT) trimmed its delivery outlook for F-35 stealth fighters as it works thru delays related to a technology upgrade.  LMT said in a regulatory filing that it now expects to deliver 97 jets in 2023, down from the previous forecast of between 100-120 jets.  The company expected to deliver the first F-35 with the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade in 2023, but it now expects the first upgraded jets will be delivered in Apr-Jun 2024.  "As a result, we now expect to deliver 97 aircraft in 2023 (all in the TR-2 configuration), which we do not currently anticipate will impact our 2023 financial outlook," the company said.  The F-35 is LMT's largest program, having generated 27% of its total consolidated net sales & 66% of aeronautics' net sales in 2022.  Demand has risen over the last 2 years amid an influx of orders as US allies ramp up defense spending & look to acquire the F-35 for their militaries amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine & China's military build-up.  LMT is currently producing F-35 jets, known as the Lightning II, at a rate of about 156 per year – a pace it expects to continue as it finalizes TR-3 software development & testing.  The company said that the number of deliveries it will make in 2024 "will depend on when the first TR-3 aircraft is delivered and the time needed to complete the customer's acceptance process."  The US military is the largest operator of the F-35, with variants in use by the Air Force, Marine Corps & Navy.  Other countries that currently operate or have ordered F-35 jets include Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Japan, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland & the UK.  The stock went up 2.29.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LMT_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Defense giant Lockhood Martin trims delivery outlook for F-35 stealth jets

Everybody is nervous about what the Fed will do next with interest rates.  Economic data remains mixed with a bias on the strong side which suggests at least one more rate hike, probably in Sep.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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