Friday, September 22, 2023

Markets edge higher while traders assess the Fed's latest guidance

Dow went up 31, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ gained 166.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 246s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 348s after yesterday's sharp decline.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries had buying which reduced yields.  Oil climbed over 90 again & gold was up 7 to 1947.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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2 Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support for keeping interest rates elevated as the battle against too-high inflation continues.  In separate speeches, Governor Michelle Bowman & Boston Fed Pres Susan Collins said there's still the possibility that the Fed will have to raise rates further if economic data doesn’t cooperate.  Bowman's remarks were more pointed as she indicated that progress has not been sufficient in bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% target.  “I continue to expect that further rate hikes will likely be needed to return inflation to 2% in a timely way,” she said.  With the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee expecting inflation to remain above-target thru at least 2025, & her own expectation that progress in the battle will be slow, it “suggests that further policy tightening will be needed to bring inflation down in a sustainable and timely manner,” Bowman added.  Collins said the recent inflation data has been encouraging though it's “too soon” to declare victory while core inflation excluding shelter costs remains elevated.  “I expect rates may have to stay higher, and for longer, than previous projections had suggested, and further tightening is certainly not off the table,” Collins said.  “Policymakers will stay the course to achieve the Fed’s mandate.”  “There are some promising signs that inflation is moderating and the economy rebalancing,” Collins said.  “But progress has not been linear and is not evenly distributed across sectors.”  She also noted that the impacts of monetary policy moves, which have included 11 interest rate increases & a more than $800B decrease in the Fed's bond holdings, may be taking longer to make their way thru the economy due to the strong cash positions of consumers and businesses.  However, she said the path to a soft landing for the economy “has widened” & the Fed policy is “well positioned” to achieve a decrease in inflation while not sending the economy into recession. 

Two key Fed officials express support for keeping interest rates high

The United Auto Workers (UAW) is expanding strikes to 38 parts & distribution locations across 20 states for General Motors (GM) & Stellantis (STLA), UAW Pres Fain said.  The union will not initiate additional strikes at Ford Motor (F), as the company has proven it's “serious about reaching a deal,” Fain said.  Roughly 13K UAW workers are currently on strike from GM's midsize truck & full-size van plant in Wentzville, Missouri; Ford's Ranger midsize pickup & Bronco SUV plant in Wayne, Michigan; & Stellantis’ Jeep Wrangler & Gladiator plant in Toledo, Ohio.  Many expected the union to expand work stoppages to full-size truck plants of the Detroit automakers, which are crucial to the profitability of the companies.  The expanded strikes come a day after The Detroit News yesterday reported leaked messages involving UAW communications director Jonah Furman that raised questions about the union's motives for the work stoppages.  In the undated private group messages Furman describes UAW's strategy & targeted strikes as causing “recurring reputations damage and operational chaos.”  Furman said if the union “can keep them wounded for months they don’t know what to do.”

UAW targets 38 facilities at GM and Stellantis for expanded strikes; skips Ford

HP Inc (HPQ) announced its groundbreaking findings from its first HP Work Relationship Index, a comprehensive study that explores employees' relationships with work around the globe.  The study surveyed 1600K respondents across various industries in 12 countries & discovered how employees' relationship with their work is at a breaking point, and the effects are pervasive.  "There is a huge opportunity to strengthen the world’s relationship with work in ways that are both good for people and good for business," Enrique Lores, pres & CEO.   "As leaders, we must always reject the false choice between productivity and happiness," he also said.  "The most successful companies are built on cultures that enable employees to excel in their careers while thriving outside of work."

Study says workers' relationships with jobs are at a breaking point

The messages from the Fed officals today were not heart warming for investors.  Currently Dow is down about 500 for the week & will probably remain in the red for the rest of today's session.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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