Monday, October 23, 2023

Markets mixed as 10-year yield briefly tops 5%

Dow was off 19, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ added 33.  The MLP index was flattish around 250 & the REIT index inched down a tad to the 324s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries had a little buying, reducing yields slightly from their high levels (more below).  Oil slid back to the low 87s & gold fell 5 to 1989.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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Treasury yields ticked higher, hovering around multiyear highs as investors continue to assess the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose by 4 basis points to 4.961%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed around 2 basis points to 5.11%.  Yields move inversely to prices.  The 10-year yield Thurs  topped 5% for the first time since 2007, as markets digested comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who said the central bank would remain “resolute” in its commitment to bring inflation down sustainably to 2% & that lower economic growth was likely needed to achieve this goal.  Fed fund futures pricing reflects a 98% probability that the central bank keeps its main interest rate unchanged at the current target range of 5.25-5.50% at its next monetary policy meeting.

10-year Treasury yield climbs back above 5% 

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union is expanding its strike to a Stellantis (STLA) plant in Michigan that produces Ram 1500 full-size pickup trucks.  The work stoppage includes roughly 6,800 workers at the Sterling Heights Assembly Plant (SHAP) in suburban Detroit, the union publicly announced after initiating the walkout.  “Currently, Stellantis has the worst proposal on the table regarding wage progression, temporary worker pay and conversion to full-time, cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), and more,” UAW said.  The plant is one of the most important US plants to STLAs, however the automaker is better poised to wait out a work stoppage at the truck plant than its crosstown rivals General Motors (GM) & Ford (F), with a healthier supply of Ram pickups ready to go.  The unannounced walkout at SHAP brings the total number of UAW members on strike with the Detroit automakers to more than 40K.  The targeted strikes began more than 5 weeks ago on Sep 15 after the union & Detroit automakers failed to reach new agreements.  The stock rose 31¢.
If you would like to learn more about STLA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/STLA_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

UAW expands strike to Stellantis pickup truck plant in Michigan

Chevron (CVX), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat) reached an agreement to acquire competitor Hess (HES) in an all-stock deal valued at $53B.  The proposed deal raises the competition to develop drilling in nascent producer Guyana.  The deal also signals its plans to continue boosting investments in fossil fuels as oil demand remains strong & big producers use acquisitions to replenish their inventory after years of under-investment.  CVX has offered 1.025 of its shares for each HES share held, $171 per share, implying a premium of about 5% to the stock's last close. The total deal value is $60B, including debt.  Guyana has become a major oil producer following huge discoveries in recent years, turning it into one of Latin America's most prominent producers, only surpassed by Brazil & Mexico.  The combined company is expected to grow production & free cash flow faster & for longer than CVX's current 5-year guidance.  Following the completion of the deal CVX intends to increase its share repurchases program by $2.5B to the top of its $20B annual range, in a sign of confidence in future energy prices & its cash generation.  CVX stock fell 3.59 & HES was up 49¢.
If you would like to learn more about CVX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CVX_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Chevron to buy Hess Corp for $53 billion in second oil mega-merger in weeks

Stocks opened lower but buyers returned & brought the Dow to about even.  The oil merger failed to create excitement in the market & expansion of the auto strike is a negative.  The stock market continues to look for direction.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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