Monday, October 30, 2023

Markets rise ahead of the Fed rate setting meeting on Wednesday

Dow climbed 355, advancers over decliners a mild 3-2 & NAZ was up 110.  The MLP index fell 2 to the 242s & the REIT index slid back 1+ to the 319s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries saw more selling, driving yields higher (more below).  Oil dropped 2+ to the 82s & gold gained 8 to 2007.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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The nation's leading economists stopped short of forecasting a full-blown recession, but they do see headwinds for the US economy.  "The October 2023 Business Conditions Survey results suggest a more challenging business environment as the economy slows," said National Association of Business Economists (NABE) pres Ellen Zentner, chief US economist.  "Sales are seen as growing but at a slower pace, and profit margins are reported to be declining" according to the survey.  More participants in the survey, which reflects 3rd-qtr & near-term views, report falling sales, while fewer report rising sales over the past 3 months vs the Jul survey.  Slowing sales, combined with declining profit margins, can be a headwind for companies with the group's NRI index for profit margins falling to the 2nd-lowest reading since the pandemic.  The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at Wed's meeting while leaving the door open for another increase in Dec.  NABE participants, 55%, also cited higher interest rates as one of the biggest downside risks to their businesses, while 51% named cost pressures.  While the US economy grew by a whopping 4.9% during Q3, many say that it is unsustainable as the lion's share of the growth came from summer concert-goers & record air travel.  Estimates for 4Q are seen dropping to around 1.5%.  Still, while cautious in their outlook, NABE participants believe the US will be able to side-step a recession with the majority (79%) forecasting a "probability of 50% or less" of a downturn, up from 71% in the Jul survey. 

Slowing economy presenting more challenges: NABE

McDonald's (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported quarterly earnings & revenue that beat expectations as price hikes offset falling traffic to its US restaurants.  Despite higher menu prices in some regions, execs said that the burger chain is still beating rivals across most of its biggest markets when it comes to consumers' perception of value & affordability.  “It’s clear that our customers continue to seek reasonably priced meals as rising costs persist, and our markets around the world continue to respond,” CFO Ian Borden said.  The fast-good giant reported 3rd-qtr EPS of $3.17, up from $2.68 a year earlier.  Excluding items, EPS was $3.19.  Revenue rose 14% to $6.7B.  Global same-store sales grew 8.8% in the qtr, beating estimates of 7.8%.  US same-store sales increased 8.1%, fueled by strategic price increases.  Execs said they expect pricing will be up about 10% for 2023, but 3rd-qtr menu prices came down slightly.  The chain also credited its marketing campaigns & digital & delivery orders for its sales growth.  US traffic fell, marking the first qtr this year that the metric dipped.  Across the restaurant industry, consumers making less than $45K visited less often, accounting for the drop in its traffic, according to CEO Chris Kempczinski.  The stock advanced 4.04.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

McDonald’s revenue climbs 14% as price hikes boost U.S. sales

Treasury yields were higher to kick off a big week of events including a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting & the release of key economic data.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than 5 basis points at 4.898% & the 2-year Treasury yield was trading 4 basis points higher at 5.054%.  Yields & prices have an inverted relationship & 1 basis point equals 0.01%.  The Fed is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wed, with markets currently pricing in an over 96% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, according to CME's FedWatch tool.  Investors are hoping for guidance on what's ahead for monetary policy & whether the central bank is done hiking.  Uncertainty has grown since the last Fed meeting in Sep, when policymakers suggested 1 further rate hike this year was likely.  However, Treasury yields have spiked since then, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 5% last week, prompting several Fed officials to say rates do not need to go any higher as elevated yields effectively work to ease the economy.

Treasury yields rise as investors look to Fed meeting, key data due this week

Investors are feeling good about the Fed meeting at mid week, although the advance decline ratio is only modest.  This week there will also be important economic reports as well as more earnings.  Expect a choppy time for the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials







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