Dow fell 115, decliners modestly over advancers & NAZ was off 116. The MLP index went up 4+ to the 244s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 33s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries were closed today. Oil jumped 3+ to the 86s on the outbreak of war in Israel & gold rebounded 17 to 1863 on growing global uncertainties.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Conflict in the Middle East may create new risks to the global economic outlook, leaving central bankers facing renewed inflationary pressures even as they continue to deal with the economic fallout of the COVID pandemic & Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago. Iran-backed Hamas terrorists struck Israel over the weekend, killing at least 700 in the deadliest attacks the country has experienced in decades. Israel's gov has launched airstrikes on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip & is mobilizing military reservists in preparation for a response, while Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terror proxy based in Lebanon, has expressed support for Hamas & remains a threat on Israel's northern border. The prospect of broader conflict in the Middle East could add to the global instability sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine nearly 20 months ago, disrupting supply chains & dragging down economic confidence around the world. The impact would depend on the duration & intensity of the conflict, as well as whether it spreads to other parts of the region – which is home to major oil producers like Iran & Saudi Arabia plus major shipping lanes that run through chokepoints at the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb & Suez Canal. Agustin Carstens, general manager of the Bank of Intl Settlements, said in a presentation to the National Association for Business Economics that it's "too early to say" what the economic implications of a Middle East conflict may be, although oil & equity markets may see immediate fallout. "Any source of economic uncertainty delays decision-making, increases risk premium, and especially given that region… there is an apprehension about where oil is going to open," said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist with Northern Trust. He added that markets will be following "what the scenarios are looking like" & whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence plays out differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?"
Middle East conflict raises risks to global economic outlook
Union workers at Volvo Group-owned Mack Trucks (MACK) rejected a tentative agreement & will go on strike, the UAW said. According to UAW Pres Shawn Fain, about 73% of workers voted against the proposed 5-year contract deal covering 4000 workers in Pennsylvania, Florida & Maryland. "The members have spoken, and as the highest authority in our union, they have the final word. Accordingly, the UAW will go on strike as of 7:00 a.m. on Monday morning, October 9, 2023," Fain said. "Employees working at the time will exit their facilities in an orderly manner after performing tasks necessary to prevent damage to the Company’s equipment or product." The statement continued: "Over the last three months, we have met with Company representatives in an effort to address issues raised by our members. The Union remains committed to exploring all options for reaching an agreement, but clearly we are not there yet." Unions have used labor actions as part of a sweeping effort across the auto, shipping & health care industries to negotiate new contracts with employers. Polls have shown Americans support the unions' efforts for increased pay as the Biden administration has not yet got persistent inflation under control which has raised the cost of food & other necessary items. The proposed Mack deal had included a 19% pay hike, below the union's requested amount, a $3500 signing bonus. The deal also included improved retirement benefits & additional vacation for some employees. It also reduced the time necessary for employees to receive raises.
The number of homes for sale on the market fell for the 5th straight month in Sep amid the already severe housing shortage. A
report from Realtor.com shows that the total number of homes for
sale, including homes that were under contract but not yet sold, fell by
4% in Sep compared with the same time a year ago. On top of that, available home supply remains down a stunning 45.1% from the typical number before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020. "Inventory remains constrained as homes sell at a fairly quick pace,"
the report said. "Buyers continue to contend with high listing prices,
mortgage rates, and lower inventory than last year." Still, there
are some signs of improvement on the inventory front. The report
indicated that total inventory rose in Sep from the previous month
"more than can be expected for this time of year." The lack of available homes
for sale is driving home prices higher, even though mortgage rates are
hovering near the highest level in two decades. Sellers who locked in a
low mortgage rate before the pandemic began have been reluctant to sell,
leaving few options for eager would-be buyers. The national median list price was up 0.4% in Sep from the same
time last year. However, there is some evidence that prices are
beginning to cool off. "While the inventory crunch continues to
support listing prices, there are some signs of adjustment, as the share
of home listings which have had their price reduced in the last month
increased more than expected for this time of year," the Realtor.com
report said. The Federal Reserve's
aggressive interest-rate hike campaign sent mortgage rates soaring
above 7% for the first time in nearly 2 decades last year. Rates have
been slow to retreat, but home prices have remained stubbornly high as
buyers deal with limited inventory.
Housing inventory remains painfully low as shortage persists
Markets don't like uncertainty & the war in Israel raises that a lot, starting with oil prices. The prospect of a full-blown war in the Middle East and unknown future for inflation makes for very trying times in the stock market.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment