Markets rise while safe haven gold reaches a new record

Dow went up 90, advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ jumped 180.  The MLP index added 3+ to the 275s & the REIT index gained 3+ higher to the 385s.  Junk bond funds continued to be in demand & Treasuries were purchased all day.  Oil gained 1+ to 80 & gold soared 40 to 2095 (more on both below & gold is flirting with its record).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

US crude oil futures topped $80 a barrel for the first time in nearly 4 months, as signs point to a tightening market ahead of an OPEC+ decision on production cuts.  The West Texas Intermediate  contract for Apr gained almost 3% ($2.31) to $80.57 a barrel, while May Brent futures added 2.5% $2.03 to $83.94 a barrel.  US crude & the global benchmark booked a 2nd consecutive monthly gain in Feb as near-month contracts traded at a premium to later months, typically a sign of a tightening oil market.  OPEC+ is considering rolling over its production cuts through the 2nd qtr & possibly the end of the year.  The cartel & its allies are expected to make a decision on the reductions next week.  OPEC's next formal Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting is scheduled for Apr 3.  On the geopolitical front, cease-fire negotiations in the Israel-Hamas war are in jeopardy after scores of Palestinians were killed in Gaza City while waiting for humanitarian aid.  “I am rejecting the international pressure to end the war before we achieve all of its goals,” Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

U.S. crude tops $80 for first time since November before OPEC+ decision

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) shares tumbled after replacing its CEO & disclosing lapsed internal controls.  "As part of management’s assessment of the Company’s internal controls, management identified material weaknesses in the Company’s internal controls related to internal loan review, resulting from ineffective oversight, risk assessment and monitoring activities," the bank detailed in a filing with the SEC.  As a result, recent financial reporting is being reviewed.  The bank, whose parent is Flagstar Bank (FBC), one of the largest regional banks in the US has over $116B in assets.  Alessandro DiNello, the bank's exec chair, will succeed Thomas Cangemi as CEO, effective immediately & Cangemi will remain on the board.  Several firms, including Piper Sandler, Wedbush & Deutsche Bank cut price targets on NYCB shares to $3.50 - $5.00.  The stock sunk 1.25 (26%).

NYCB stock plummets as bank replaces CEO, cites 'material weakness'

Ford (F) CEO Jim Farley wrote that the charging partnership, which involves use of fast-charging adapters, should “improve the EV ownership experience,” for Ford EV drivers, noting that “I’ve tested it myself and its works great.”  Tesla (TSLA) has forged a similar agreement with General Motors (GM), which was announced in Jun, giving GM customers access to more than 12K TSLA fast chargers in the US & Canada.  GM CEO Mary Barra said at the time that her company expected to save up to $400M of a planned investment in building out EV charging stations.  The partnerships mark a strategy shift for TSLA CEO Elon Musk, who for years touted the exclusivity of TSLA's charging network & his company's ability to build reliable charging locations that would keep consumers from sitting in long lines.  Becoming the charging standard has required TSLA to invest heavily in technical & business development.  But TSLA has plenty to gain from working with others.  Sam Fiorani, VP for global forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, said these efforts should eventually yield huge financial benefits for TSLA, including from environmental credits & fees for charging sessions.  Currently, TSLA operates about 1 in 3 charging stations in the US.  Even if adoption of battery electric vehicles slows domestically, & the fleet of electric vehicles is smaller than what the gov & many automakers planned 6 months ago, “Tesla could still see $6 billion to $12 billion a year,” by 2030 from its expanded charging business, Fiorani said.  TSLA stock rose 76¢.

Tesla stands to earn billions by opening U.S. charging stations to drivers of Ford and other EVs

Gold rose to the highest in 9 weeks as disappointing US factory data & a drop in consumer sentiment reinforced bets on the possibility of interest-rate cuts later this year.  Signs of a softening economy solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to lower borrowing costs to help shore up the economy.  Higher rates are typically negative for non-yielding bullion.  The precious metal has largely held above the key $2000 level since mid-Dec on bets of the Fed's pivot to monetary easing.  That view hasn't changed even though expectations of the timing & size of the central bank's rate reduction varied against mixed US economic data recently.  Data today showed a measure of US factory activity shrank at a faster pace in Feb as orders, production & employment contracted, suggesting manufacturing is struggling for momentum.  Separate data showed US consumer sentiment fell in Feb for the first time in 3 months as current & expected views of the economy deteriorated.  Treasury yields tumbled, helping sending bullion higher by as much as 2.1%, the biggest intraday increase since Dec 13.  Remarks from a slew of Fed officials also weighed on bond yields, which in turn boosted bullion.  Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would like the central bank to boost its share of short-term Treasuries.  Fed Bank of Chicago Pres Austan Goolsbee said he believes the Fed funds rate is quite restrictive.  Separately, his Richmond counterpart Thomas Barkin said markets are pricing in fewer rate reductions in response to economic data.  Dallas Fed chief counterpart Lorie Logan reiterated it'll likely be appropriate to start slowing the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet.  Spot gold climbed 2% to $2088 an ounce, on track for its 2nd consecutive weekly gain.

Gold Rises to Nine-Week High as US Data Reinforces Rate Cut Bets

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose to the highest in 4 months ahead of next week's expected roll over of OPEC+'s voluntary production cuts into the 2nd qtr, while weak economic data pushed investors to add risk on expectations lower interest rates may be near.  WTI crude oil for Apr closed up $1.71 to settle at $79.97 per barrel, the highest since Nov 6, while May Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up $1.74 to $83.65.  The rise comes ahead of OPEC+ expected move to continue cuts to support oil prices that have been limited by demand concerns & rising non-OPEC supply, keeping the commodity trading in a tight range.  Prices were also supported by weak economic data as the US ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.8 in Feb from 49.1 a month earlier, while the consensus forecast expected a reading of 49.5.  Construction spending & consumer sentiment also fell.  The weak data comes a day after the US reported its PCE Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, fell in Jan from Dec, while several European countries also reported slowing inflation, boosting hopes for lower interest rates.

WTI Crude Oil Closes at a Four-Month High on OPEC+, Weak Economic Data

Gold for Apr climbed $41 (2%) to settle at a record $2095 an ounce, topping the previous record high at $2093.  Stocks regained momentum in the PM, building on a record-setting rally in Feb.  The bulls are betting that the Fed may get more aggressive in cutting rates.  Meanwhile demand was very strong for gold & Treasuries, classic safe haven investments.  The bears are predicting that unimpressive data along with higher oil prices could drag the economy into a recession.  Also NYCB's problems are very troublesome.  Dow fell 44 this week & all popular averages are at or near their records.  Take your pick!

Dow Jones Industrials