Monday, March 11, 2024

Markets struggle while traders wait for key inflation data tomorrow

Dow finished up 46 after a weak start, decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 65.  The MLP index crawled up to the 279s & the REIT index dipped 2 to the 389s.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries continued with limited selling, bringing slightly higher yields.  Oil finished close to the 78s & gold was up 2 to 2187 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Pfizer (PFE) is betting on cancer drugs to help it regain its footing after a rocky year marked by the rapid decline of its Covid business.  It might take a while before that bet pays off.  PFE pitched its deeper push into oncology last week with a splashy 60-second Super Bowl ad that touted its initiative to “outdo cancer.”  The pharmaceutical giant has been trying to shore up investor sentiment after its shares fell more than 40% in 2023 (over $100B).  Along with plummeting demand for its Covid products, PFE disappointed investors last year with the underwhelming launch of a new RSV shot, a twice-daily weight loss pill that fell short in clinical trials & a 2024 forecast that missed expectations.  The company has launched a $4B cost-cutting program, laying off hundreds of employees & shaving down its research & development spending.  During its investor day, PFE laid out its priorities now that it has fully integrated with the targeted cancer drugmaker Seagen.  That $43B acquisition doubled its oncology drug pipeline to 60 different experimental programs.  With Seagen under its belt, PFE says its drug pipeline could produce at least 8 blockbuster medicines by 2030, up from just 5 today.  But the company did not disclose which drugs it believes could offer that potential.  PFE used the investor event to formally introduce its new business division dedicated to cancer research & to lay out a long-term strategy for it thru the end of the decade.  That oncology unit hosts a sprawling portfolio of experimental medicines that PFE & Seagen discovered or acquired through deals, as well as the treatments both companies have long been selling.  The stock rose 1.14.

Pfizer is betting on cancer drugs after Covid decline

Eli Lilly (LLY) said that the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) has pushed back its approval decision deadline for the drugmaker's experimental Alzheimer's treatment donanemab in a surprise move.  The agency plans to call a last-minute meeting of its outside advisors to further review the treatment's safety & efficacy in a late-stage trial. The FDA has not disclosed the date of that meeting, so a potential approval would likely come after this month.  The FDA was expected to decide whether to greenlight the medicine by the end of the first qtr.  That deadline was already delayed from an expected approval last year.  This drug significantly slowed Alzheimer's progression in a late-stage trial.  But the treatment, along with similar drugs, carries safety concerns related to brain swelling & bleeding.  The agency's decision to call for an advisory meeting reflects the high stakes of developing treatments for Alzheimer's.  The condition affects more than 6M Americans & currently has no cure, leaving patients who have it with few effective care options.  LLY called the delay “unexpected,” but said it is confident in donanemab's “potential to offer very meaningful benefits to people with early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease.”  “We will work with the FDA and the stakeholders in the community to make that presentation and answer all questions,” said Anne White, pres of neuroscience at LLY.  LLY noted that while it is unusual for the FDA to hold an advisory panel meeting after a set action date, the agency has convened similar meetings for 2 other amyloid plague-targeting therapies that it previously approved.  The FDA often turns to an advisory panel for advice on whether an unapproved product is safe & effective.  The stock sank 27+ (almost 4%).

Eli Lilly says FDA delays approval of Alzheimer’s drug in surprise move

New construction homes are continuing to grow in popularity, largely due to a lack of older homes on the market.  In the 4th qtr, 31.8% of single-family homes for sale were new construction, according to a Redfin report.  That's down just slightly from last year’s high of 31.9%.  Prospective homebuyers are seeking new construction more often for several reasons.  New home construction has grown significantly since 2009, now that the effects of the last recession have finally lessened.  The pandemic also gave rise to a new build craze as mortgage rates hit all-time lows.  "Newly built homes are selling quickly right now because builders are offering such good discounts," said Heather Mahmood-Corley, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Phoenix.  "I recently had a buyer who wasn’t interested in a new construction home, but the builder offered such a good rate—5.25%—that they couldn’t afford not to take it. Another one of my buyers got a $10,000 credit for closing costs from a builder."  Due to high interest rates, fewer homeowners put their home on the market last year, leading to less inventory for buyers.  Buyers had to opt for pricier new construction homes instead.  New construction homes may be more readily available, but they're also costlier.  About 42% of new build homes sold in 2022 for $500K or more.

Nearly 32% of homes sold last quarter were new construction: Redfin

Gold closed at its 7th-straight record high even as the $ & treasury yields rose ahead of US inflation data coming tomorrow.  Gold for Apr closed up $3 to settle at $2188 per ounce.  The price of the precious metal has been steadily rising on expectations the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year, though the central bank says it will not begin easing rates until inflation nears its 2% target.  The estimate for the Feb consumer price index is a rise of 3.1%, annualized, with the core rating rising 3.7%.  The ICE dollar index was last seen up 0.14 points to 102.86.  Treasury yields also rose, bearish for gold since it offers no interest.  The 2 year note was last seen paying 4.544%, up 6.2 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was up 2.5 basis points to 4.105%.

Gold Closes at a Record High for the Seventh-Straight Day Ahead of February Inflation Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a small loss, falling for a 3rd session on expectations for weaker demand as China's economy weakens.  WTI crude for Apr closed down 8¢ to settle at $77.93 per barrel, while May Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up 5¢ to $82.13.  The drop comes as China's economy continues to be weighed down by a debt crisis in its real estate sector, as the country continues to steer clear of the widespread stimulus measures it has used in the past to counter slowing growth.  Traders may also be easing back on risk ahead of Feb US inflation data coming tomorrow.  Crude meanwhile can't get a break, ending the week lower despite Middle East tensions & OPEC+ production cuts.  The focus remains on demand outlook as China measures again fell short of market expectations & tomorrow with US inflation, as well as oil market reports from OPEC & EIA on tap.

WTI Crude Oil Closes Down on Weak Chinese Demand and Caution Ahead of US Inflation Data

The Dow began the session with selling, but bulls returned & took it into the black.  Everybody is anxious to see the inflation data.  While a low number is expected, the focus by investors will be on how close it is to the Fed's goal of 2%. 

Dow Jones Industrials 

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