Markets struggle to advance in choppy trading

Dow was off 31, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ dipped 68.  The MLP index stayed in the 281s & the REIT index was flattish in the 375s.  Junk bond funds remained slightly higher & Treasuries saw a little buying which took yields down a little.  Oil continued off a little in the 81s & gold added 1 to 2077 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Interest payments for US consumers are thru the roof.  Last qtr, consumers spent a record-high $1.1T on interest payments alone, reported Quartz, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  Over ½ of those interest payments were not related to mortgage debt.  Mortgages often have some of the highest interest over the life of the loans.  The "personal interest payments" line of BEA's report shows that $563B of the $1.1T was non-mortgage related interest.  "The dominance of the 15-30-year fixed-rate mortgage has played a significant role in blunting the impact of higher rates on aggregate household debt service," head of US regional economics at the credit rating agency Fitch, said.  "However, the sharp increase in credit card rates and the resumption of student loan payments will drive non-mortgage household debt service to historic highs in 2024."  Credit cards have some of the highest interest rates outside of payday loans, with the average interest rate sitting at 22.8% as of 2023.

Consumers spend more than $1 trillion on interest payments, largely due to increasing credit card debt

Apple (AAPL), a Dow stock, announced that its annual developers conference, WWDC, will take place Jun 10-14.  The conference will be livestreamed on its website, although the company is inviting some software makers to its campus on the first day to “celebrate in person,” AAPL said.  At this year's conference, AAPL could reveal its long-awaited artificial intelligence strategy & consumer features.  In Feb, Cook said AAPL was “investing significantly” in AI & teased an AI-related announcement “later this year” that many analysts believe will come at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC).  AAPL typically reveals the latest versions of its iPhone, iPad, Mac & Apple TV software at WWDC via a “keynote” video on the first day, led by CEO Tim Cook & other AAPL staff, which is also streamed on YouTube.  At some past conferences, the company has also revealed new professional-oriented hardware, such as Mac laptops.  At this year's conference, AAPL also plans to reveal the first major software update to the Vision Pro, the virtual reality headset it launched earlier this year.  The stock fell 93¢.

Apple announces its big annual conference, where it could reveal its AI strategy

Consumers are feeling less confident about the future state of the US economy, according to new data.  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for Mar came in at a reading of 104.7, little changed from a revised 104.8 in Feb but short of the 107 reading expected.  The "Present Situation Index," which measures consumers' assessment of current business & labor market conditions, increased to 151 in Mar from 147.6 in Feb.   However, the "Expectations Index," which tracks consumers' short-term outlook for income, business & labor market conditions, fell to 73.8 in Mar from 76.3 last month.  Historically, a reading below 80 in that category signals a recession in the coming year.  "Consumers’ assessment of the present situation improved in March, but they also became more pessimistic about the future," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.  "Confidence rose among consumers aged 55 and over but deteriorated for those under 55," Peterson said.  "Separately, consumers in the $50,000-$99,999 income group reported lower confidence in March, while confidence improved slightly in all other income groups."  "However, over the last six months, confidence has been moving sideways with no real trend to the upside or downside either by income or age group."

Americans got 'more pessimistic' about the economy in March

Gold rose back toward its most recent record set last week, extending a weeks-long rally fueled by bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts & deepening geopolitical tensions.  While the expected pivot by the Fed is positive for non-interest-bearing gold, the sharp rally over the past month has been marked by often-outsized moves that lacked a clear news trigger to justify the gains, as investors piled into the bullion market.  Persistent tensions in the Middle East & Ukraine have bolstered the precious metal's role as a haven asset, while central bank buying supported prices at historically high levels over the past year, despite rising interest rates.  A weaker $ also supported bullion, after the People's Bank of China yesterday set a stronger-than-expected reference rate for the yuan.  The next focus for investors will be the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, which is due for release on Fri.  Gold for Jun closed up $1 to settle at $2177 per ounce.

Gold advances as rate cut bets firm ahead of US inflation test

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower as fresh US inventory data is awaited.  WTI crude oil for May delivery closed down 33¢ to settle at $81.62 per barrel, while May Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen down 58¢ to $86.17.  Prices have slipped off a 5-month high touched last week amid geopolitical worries as violence continues in the Middle East, lower US inventories & Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries that have significantly damaged that country's processing capacity.  The damage to Russia's refineries has pushed the price of refined products higher, with gasoline futures up 17% over the past month, though heating oil is less affected as shoulder season demand sets in.  Coming surveys of US inventories may offer direction to the market, with the American Petroleum Institute releasing its weekly survey later, followed tomorrow by official data from the Energy Information Administration.

WTI Crude Oil Edges Down Ahead of Fresh Inventory Data

News that was not exciting kept buyers away from the stocks market today.  As said many times here, the market is vastly overbought & is entitled to take a rest.  Also, there was cautious selling into the close.

Dow Jones Industrials