Markets are trading lower on worries about slower economic growth

Dow dropped 332, decliners over advancers better than 5-1 & NAZ was off 88.  The MLP index slid back 1 to the 284s & the REIT index sank 8 to 430 on higher interest rates.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries saw more selling which brought higher yields (more below).  Oil was fractionally higher to the high 69s (more below) & gold added 4 to 2734.

Dow Jones Industrials

US crude oil futures jumped, reclaiming some of the losses from last week's steep sell-off.  The US benchmark finished last week more than 8% lower as traders increasingly believe Israel-Iran tensions will not lead to an oil supply disruption in the Middle East.  Prices rose today after China cut its benchmark lending rate.  Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said he remains “fairly bullish” on demand in the world's 2nd-largest economy.  West Texas Intermediate Nov contract was $70.82 per barrel, up $1.60 (more than 2%) & YTD, US crude oil has fallen about 1%.  Brent Dec contract was $74.50 per barrel, up $1.44 (2%) & YTD, the global benchmark has declined more than 3%.  The oil market has shifted focus back to supply & demand fundamentals, with consumption in China softening as supplies are expected to rise.

U.S. crude oil rebounds more than 2% after selling off last week

Inflation may have cooled, but retailers are still staring down a holiday season with plenty of uncertainty.  Several hard-to-predict factors will influence consumers' spending, as they deck the halls & look for the perfect gifts.  Volatile weather, election distraction & a deal-hunting mindset may shape the season.  And fewer days between Thanksgiving & Christmas than last year will put shoppers on the clock.  Yet there's reason for optimism for retailers: Shoppers are feeling more upbeat & plan to spend more compared with last holiday season, according to an annual survey by consulting firm Deloitte & a separate forecast by the National Retail Federation.  Holiday spending in Nov & Dec is expected to increase by 2.5 - 3.5% compared with 2023 & range between $979- $989B, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).  That's a more modest increase than the 3.9% year-over-year jump from the 2022 to 2023 holiday season, when spending totaled $956B.  NRF's figure excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations & restaurants.  Shoppers expect to spend an average of $1778 on the holidays this year, 8% more than last holiday season, according to consulting firm Deloitte’s survey.  The survey, which included about 4000 consumers & was conducted in late Aug & early Sep, attributed that spending increase to a more favorable economic outlook, a perception among respondents that prices would be higher & more willingness to spend among higher-earning households with an annual income of $100K-199K.  Low unemployment, a return to more typical inflation levels & a recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut are lifting consumers' spirits, said Stephen Rogers, managing director of Deloitte's Consumer Industry Center.  “People are still in a better frame of mind, despite the political chatter,” he said.  “When they look at their bank account and think about what their financial situation is, they feel better.”

Elections, hurricane damage and more: Here are four factors that will shape holiday shopping

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose about 5 basis points to 4.128% & the yield on the 2-year Treasury was up about 3 basis points to 3.987%.  Yields & prices move in opposite directions & 1 basis point equals 0.01%.  On a day without any major economic data releases, market participants are likely to scrutinize comments from officials at the central bank.  Dallas Fed Pres Lorie Logan, Minneapolis Fed Pres Neel Kashkari, Kansas City Fed Pres Jeff Schmid & San Francisco Fed Pres Mary Daly are all expected to deliver remarks today as investors await clues on the Fed's monetary policy outlook.  Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week that future interest rate cuts will be less aggressive than Sep's jumbo rate cut, expressing some concern that the US economy may still be running at a hotter-than-desired pace.  “While we do not want to overreact to this data or look through it, I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting,” Waller said last week, citing recent reports on employment, inflation, gross domestic product & income.

10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.11% as investors monitor Fed speeches

Stocks tumbled as investors braced for a packed week of top-tier earnings that could drive or drag on a record-setting rally.  So far, 80% of 3rd qtr updates from those on the benchmark have topped the mark.  Comments by Fed officials on interest rates today will also drive the stock market.