Markets rise carefully led by Dow reaching a new record

Dow jumped 431, advancers over decliners a modest 5-4 & NAZ gained 108.  The MLP index wobbled in the 286s & the REIT index stayed in the 424s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries saw more selling which raised yields.  Oil drifted lower in the 73s & gold was off 10 to 2624 (more on both below).

Dow Jones Industrials 

Federal Reserve officials at their Sep meeting agreed to cut interest rates but were unsure how aggressive to get, ultimately deciding on a ½ percentage point move in an effort to balance confidence on inflation with worries over the labor market, according to minutes.  The meeting summary detailed reasons that policymakers decided to approve a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points for the first time in more than 4 years & showed members divided over the economic outlook.  Some officials hoped for a smaller, qtr percentage point cut as they sought assurance that inflation was moving sustainably lower & were less worried about the jobs picture.  Ultimately, only 1 Federal Open Market Committee member, Governor Michelle Bowman, voted against the ½-point cut, saying she would have preferred a ¼ point.  But the minutes indicated that others also favored a smaller move.  It was the first time a governor had dissented on an interest rate vote since 2005 for a Fed known for its unity on monetary policy.  “Some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes stated.  “Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved,” the document added.  “A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.”  Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected.  In Sep, nonfarm payrolls increased by 254K, much more than expected, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%.  The data has helped cement expectations that while the Fed likely is in the early days of an easing cycle, future cuts likely would not be as aggressive as the Sep move.  Chair Jerome Powell & other Fed officials in recent days have backed the expected 50 basis points in cuts indicated by the “dot plot” unofficial forecast released after the Sep meeting.  The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came “in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks” against the labor market.  The minutes noted that a “a substantial majority of participants” favored the larger move, without specifying how many were opposed. The term “participants” suggests involvement of the full FOMC rather than just the 12 voters.  The minutes also noted that some members favored a cut at the Jul meeting that never materialized.  Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move.  At this post-meeting news conference, Powell used the term “recalibration” to sum up the decision to cut, & the term also appears in the minutes.  “Participants emphasized that it was important to communicate that the recalibration of the stance of policy at this meeting should not be interpreted as evidence of a less favorable economic outlook or as a signal that the pace of policy easing would be more rapid than participants’ assessments of the appropriate path,” the minutes stated.  Such a recalibration would bring policy “into better alignment with recent indicators of inflation and the labor market.”  Supporters of the 50 basis point cut “also emphasized that such a move would help sustain the strength in the economy & the labor market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks.”

Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show

Price hikes are coming to Disneyland.  While the California-based park's entry-level ticket will remain at $104, the same price it’s been for 6 years, other ticket tiers, which are based on demand, will jump $7 - $12, a 5.9% - 6.5% increase.  Similarly, the cost of the park's Magic Key annual pass will increase 6 - 20%, or $100 - $125 depending on the pass type.  These price changes are effective today.  These price changes come as Walt Disney (DIS), a Dow stock, is already under scrutiny for the cost of its theme park admissions & hotel accommodations, which many consumers believe has become too high.  Still, the company has sought to offer discounted tickets & hotel stays for those who opt to visit Disneyland during off-peak periods.  Last week, DIS announced its kids ticket offer of $50 tickets would be made available on Oct 22 & can be used starting Jan 7.  Additionally, the company has a hotel offer that can save guests up to 20% starting in Jan.  “We always provide a wide variety of ticket, dining and hotel options, and promotional offers throughout the year, to welcome as many families as possible,” said Jessica Good, a Disneyland Resort spokesperson.  The stock rose 1.09.

Disneyland hikes ticket prices for its highest-demand days

Amazon (AMZN) plans to bring same-day prescription delivery to 20 more cities next year, the company said, marking the latest phase of its push into health care.  As part of the expansion, which will make speedy medicine delivery available in nearly ½ of the US, AMZN said, it is embedding pharmacies in same-day delivery facilities often clustered around major metro areas.  The company announced its plans during a press event at 1 of its warehouses near Nashville, Tennessee.  AMZN in Mar introduced same-day pharmacy delivery in New York & Los Angeles, after launching the service in Indianapolis, Miami, Phoenix, Seattle, & Austin, Texas.  Some of the cities that will be added in 2025 include Boston, Dallas, Minneapolis, Philadelphia & San Diego.  The company has worked to accelerate medication deliveries.  It's been testing prescription delivery by drone in 1 Texas city.  In most cases, the company said, when shoppers order same-day delivery of their medication by 4PM they can receive it at home by 10PM.  The stock added 2.45.

Amazon same-day prescription delivery expanding to nearly half of U.S. in 2025

Gold prices fell for a 6th straight session to below $2610 an ounce, the lowest level in about 3 weeks, pressured by a stronger $ as traders bet the Fed will not act as swiftly to lower interest rates as previously thought.  Minutes from the last FOMC meeting in Sep showed Fed policymakers were divided on the size of the rate cut, with some participants favoring a qtr-point reduction instead of the 50bps cut delivered.  Investors are currently assigning a 78% chance for a qtr-point cut in Nov.  Additionally, gold prices were also pressured by China's vague announcements regarding stimulus measures.  However, the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset persists amidst looming concerns about the conflicts in the Middle East.

Gold Falls for 6th Session

Oil steadied following the previous session's sharp decline as China plans a Sat briefing on fiscal policy, with the market also monitoring developments in the Middle East.  Brent rose toward $78 a barrel after tumbling 4.6% yesterday & West Texas Intermediate traded above $74. China's finance minister will introduce moves to strengthen fiscal policy with the aim of shoring up growth according to a notice from the gov.  Oil was swept up in a broader market selloff yesterday after China's top economic planner ended a briefing without announcing major fresh stimulus.  The slide in prices overshadowed nervousness about an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, particularly a possible retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran's oil facilities following a missile barrage last week. the American Petroleum Institute reported crude stockpiles expanded by 11M barrels last week.  However, inventories of gasoline & distillates, a category which includes diesel, declined.  Brent for Dec advanced 0.6% to $77.68 a barrel & WTI for Nov rose 0.7% to $74.10 a barrel.

Oil Steadies as New China Briefing Renews Hopes for Stimulus

Minutes from the Fed's Sep meeting showed that a "substantial majority" of officials supported the ½ a percentage point interest rate cut.  But "some participants" supported a 25 basis point interest rate cut.  Following the minutes, markets are pricing in a 24% chance the Fed doesn't cut rates at its Nov meeting, up significantly from just a day ago & up from a 0% chance seen a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.