Friday, October 18, 2024

Markets hesitate while gold reaches new heights

Dow slid back 76, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ rose 120.   The MLP index lost 1+ to the 284s & the REIT index added 1 + to the 436s.  Junk bond funds were mixed  & Treasuries had buying which reduced yields (more below).  Oil dropped 1+ to the high 68s & gold soared 25 to 2733 for another record high.

Dow Jones Industrials

Procter & Gamble (PG), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported weaker-than-expected revenue as lower demand in China again weighed on its sales.  Organic sales in Greater China, its 2nd-largest market, fell 15% in the fiscal qtr.  As home prices fall & jobless rates rise in the country, shoppers have pulled back their spending, hurting its sales for shampoo, diapers & other consumer staples.  While execs maintained their confidence in China long term, demand isn't expected to recover for at least several more qtrs.  “The market continues to be weak and will be weak, we believe, for a number of quarters to come,” CFO Andre Schulten said.  PG's outlook for China didn't take into account the Chinese gov's recently announced plans to boost the country’s economy.   Net sales dropped 1% to $21.7B & organic revenue, which strips out foreign exchange, acquisitions & divestitures, rose 2%, helped by higher prices.  The company reported flat volume for the qtr.  The metric excludes pricing, which makes it a more accurate reflection of demand than sales.  Like many consumer companies, PG has seen demand for its products fall after several years of price hikes.  Last qtr was the first time in more than 2 years that its volume increased.  In the US, PG's volume grew in 8 of its 10 categories, & the company isn't seeing any trade down to private-label products.  But it's a different story in Greater China, which saw its organic sales worsen compared with the prior qtr.  The company called out volume declines in China for both its hair care & oral care segments.  Still, Greater China accounts for less than 10% of PG revenue.  Fiscal first-qtr EPS was $1.61, down from $1.83 a year earlier.  Excluding restructuring charges & other items, EPS was $1.93.  PG reiterated its fiscal 2025 forecast.  It anticipates core net EPS of $6.91 - $7.05 & revenue growth of 2-4%.  The stock rose 58¢.

Procter & Gamble earnings beat estimates, but weak demand in China hurts sales

Treasury yields fell as investors weighed the latest economic data & its potential impact on the US monetary policy.  The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 3 basis points to 4.069% & the yield on the 2-year Treasury yield ticked lower by 3 basis points to 3.957%.  1 basis point is equal to 0.01% & yields & prices move in opposite directions.  These moves come after retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in Sep, indicating solid consumer spending.  The data reflects an increase from the 0.1% gain in Aug & beat the 0.3% forecast.  Meanwhile, weekly initial jobless claims fell to 241K, below the estimated 260K.  Today, however, new housing data painted a more downbeat picture.  Housing starts & building permits both fell in Sep.  Private owned authorizations for permits totaled 1.43M, 2.9% below the previous month's total & starts decreased by 0.5% to 1.35M.

Treasury yields hold steady as investors digest key data

Intel (INTC), a Dow stock, is looking to sell at least a minority stake in its Altera unit in a transaction that would raise several B $s in cash for the struggling chipmaker, according to people familiar with the matter.  INTC is seeking a deal that values Altera at around $17B.  INTC purchased Altera for $16.7B in 2015.  Following a steep drop in its stock price & extended stretch of market share losses, INTC has been looking to make drastic changes.  The company made overtures to a number of private equity & strategic investors this week about Altera.  INTC has expressed to some of those investors that it would be possible to acquire a majority stake in the business.  The sale process represents an abrupt change from its prior commentary on Altera.  As recently as last month, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that INTC's leadership considered the business to be a core part of its future.  INTC has previously said it could look to monetize Altera business thru an IPO, possibly as soon as 2026.  But the idea of taking strategic or private equity investment would be a marked acceleration of those plans.  Gelsinger has previously said that INTC understands its disadvantaged position & is working aggressively to remedy it.  Selling a stake in Altera might allow INTC to more easily pursue its semiconductor fabrication ambitions & assure investors that it has a future as an independent company.  The stock went up 22¢.

Intel seeks billions for minority stake in Altera business, sources say

Stocks, with tech in the lead, attempted to rise.  Investors welcomed Netflix's (NFLX) across-the-board earnings & investors are waiting for the next batch of corp results.  While stocks are stumbling in their rally, gold keeps climbing to new records.

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