Markets drift after lower jobless claims

Stock averages hardly budged ahead of the jobs report tomorrow.  Dow & NAZ were essentially even & the advancers & decliners were equal.  Bank stock were a little lower.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index

Value	178.54
Change	-1.29     (-0.7%)

The MLP index & REIT index were flat while junk bond funds inched higher.  Treasuries were also little changed.  Oil was flat & gold fell on an unexciting day of trading.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)

Click below for the latest market update:

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month	0.010%
U.S. 2-year	0.192%
U.S. 10-year	2.246%

CLV11.NYM

....Crude Oil Oct 11

...88.87 ..

... 0.06

(0.1%)

GCU11.CMX

...Gold Sep 11

.....1,817.80

... 10.70

(0.6%)

Photo:   Yahoo

Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week.  Weekly applications fell 12K to 409K according to the Labor Dept, the first decline in 3 weeks.  A strike by Verizon workers drove applications higher during the previous 2 weeks but the strike has ended & is no longer affecting applications.  The 4-week average rose last week to 410K mostly because of the strike but has come down from 440K in May.  Fewer are continuing to receive unemployment benefits. About 3.74M received benefits in the latest week, a drop of 18K from the previous week.  But that doesn't include about 3.5M additional laid-off workers who are receiving extended benefits under an emergency program put in place during the recession.  All told, 7.3M received benefits.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell by 12,000 Last Week

Photo:   Bloomberg

General Motors US sales rose 18% in Aug as fuel-efficient vehicles helped offset economic uncertainty & bad weather.  But other automakers may not fare as well.  Predictions are that car & truck sales slowed in last month because of fewer discounts, worries about the economy & Hurricane Irene, which closed showrooms in the huge East Coast market.  GM sold 218K vehicles, including nearly 22K Chevrolet Cruze compact cars.  The Chevrolet Equinox & GMC Terrain small crossovers also were strong sellers. Sales of the Terrain jumped 88% while the Equinox rose 54%.  GM is the first to report US sales.  The stock is up a dime, but down sharply from the IPO last year.

GM’s U.S. Sales Climb 18% as Chevy Cruze Helps Automaker Exceed Estimates

General Motors Company (GM)

Macy's said that revenue at stores open at least a year climbed 5% in Aug, beating estimates of 4.5%.  The store chain emphasized that the increase came despite its closing more than 100 of its 850 stores over the weekend, a key time for back-to-school shopping, because of Hurricane Irene.  The company said revenue at stores open at least a year would have climbed about 6.5% without the Irene impact.  Total revenue climbed 4.9% to $1.7B in Aug & online revenue climbed more than 35%.  YTD revenue totaled $13.5B, up 6.3%.  YTD same-store revenue was up 5.8%.  The stock rose 67¢ on the encouraging news.

Macy's August revenue beats expectations AP

Macy's Inc (M)

Not much is going on in the markets.  Many traders are away on holiday or vacation & there is no exciting news.  No news out of Europe (on sovereign debt problems) is considered good news, although the problems are not going away.  Congress comes back next week when it will try to fix a somewhat broken economy.  The rest of the day should feature more sideways motion.

Dow Industrials (INDU)

Find out what's inside Trend TV  

Click Here

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  

Click Here

Markets stumble after weak holiday retail sales

Dow dropped 38, decliners over advancers better than 3-2 but NAZ gained 1 as the CES show opens in Las Vegas.  Financials were also a little lower. 

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value	220.86
Change	-0.94  (-0.4%)

The MLP index fell a fraction to the 363s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 223s.  Junk bond funds were trying to inch their way higher.  Buyers flocked to Treasuries on the less than exciting economic news.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond fell 7 basis points to 3.42%.

Treasury Yields:

U.S. 3-month		0.14%
U.S. 2-year		0.69%
U.S. 10-year		3.42%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks



Oil fell below $90 a barrel as the dollar strengthened against the € on concern of a slower recovery in some European nations will prolong the region’s debt crisis. Gold fell for the 3rd straight day on mounting speculation that an improving economy will cut demand for the metal.

CLG11.NYM

...Crude Oil Feb 11

...88.33

... 1.97

(2.2%)

Gold

1367.80

..-5.90

-0.43%

Gold Super Cycle Link! Click Here

Photo:  Bloomberg

Retailers are reporting surprisingly weak Dec revenue after a strong Nov pulled forward holiday spending & a blizzard in the Northeast took a bite out of sales after Christmas.  The results raise worries that the holiday season might be less stellar than some had hoped, but some still expect spending in Nov & Dec to show the largest increase since 2006.  As merchants report their figures, many retailers including Target (TGT & a Dividend Aristocrat)., Costco (COST) & Macy's (M) reported gains below expectations. Bon-Ton (BONT) sales were virtually flat, company officials blamed the severe snowstorms.  The figures are based on revenue at stores opened at least a year, considered to be a key indicator of a retailer's health.

The disappointing Dec figures were surprising given earlier data from MasterCard Advisors' SpendingPulse & anecdotal evidence that pointed to a strong Dec.  COST sales at warehouse clubs open at least a year climbed 6% in Dec, a bit below the 6.2% rise predicted.  TGT revenue at stores open at least a year rose 0.9%, well below the 4% increase predicted as strength in groceries & clothing was offset by weakness in electronics, toys & some home categories.  Sales for key gift categories were pulled forward into Nov, Target  CEO Greg Steinhafel said & merchandise with lower profit margins made up a higher portion of sales than expected.  Macy's revenue at stores opened at least a year rose 3.9%, below the 4.5% estimate, but combined Nov & Dec sales rose 4.6% & the company is sticking to its profit outlook for Q4.  BONT said revenue at stores opened at least a year rose 0.1% because the Northeast blizzard shaved off 1½-2 percentage points.  Now the stores are going into seasonally slow Jan.

December Retail Sales Damped by Snow as Macy's, Gap Lag Behind Estimates

Costo   ---   1 year



Target   ---   1 year



Macy's   ---   1 year



Bon-Ton   ---   1 year

Photo:  Reuters

New claims for jobless benefits moved higher last week, but a decline in the 4-week average to a nearly 2½ year low indicated a trend toward better labor market conditions remained intact.  Initial claims unemployment benefits increased 18K to 409K (above expectations for 400K), according to the Labor Dept. The prior week's figure was revised up to 391K from the previously reported 388K.  The 4-week moving average of unemployment claims fell 3K to 410K, the lowest level since late Jul 2008. It is believed this gauge needs to fall below 400K to signal strong jobs growth needed to reduce the lofty unemployment rate.  The report also showed the number still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 47K to 4.1M, in line with expectations. The number on emergency unemployment benefits fell 133K to 3.6M & 8.8M were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs.  Numbers during the holidays are always suspect but the trends from previous months are continuing

Fewer Americans Filed Jobless Claims Over Past Month

Photo:   Bloomberg

Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, sold more than 3 times as many commercial airplanes in 2010 as in 2009 & beat its delivery target as air-travel demand recovered from the global economic crisis. BA had 530 net orders last year (stripping out cancellations), sharply above last year's 142 orders.  462 aircraft were delivered, surpassing its target of 460, after handing over 481 in 2009 when it was catching up from a strike in the year before.  BA & larger rival Airbus are boosting production this year to accommodate a surge in orders from airlines refreshing their fleets with more fuel-efficient jets.  Boeing climbed 83¢ after doing little in the last year.

Boeing More Than Triples Orders, Beats Delivery Goal

Boeing   ---   1 year




Markets keep wavering, not sure where to go after the surge in the opening minutes of trading this week.  The jobless data is getting more analysts to raise estimates of jobs created in Dec (reported tomorrow) to over 150K with optimistic ones calling for more than 200K.  But the unemployment rate is expected to slip only 0.1% to 9.7%.  Bulls have to be discouraged with the markets faltering this week but they would respond by saying the markets are entitled & need a rest after their performance in recent weeks.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks

Find out what's inside Trend TV  

Click Here

Perfect "R" Portfolio Report. Aimed at retirement accounts  

Click Here

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  

Click Here

Lower markets ahead of G-20 meeting

Stocks pulled back from profit taking.  Dow fell 62, decliners over advancxers 2-1 & NAZ dropped 10.  Bank stocks slipped a smidgen.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value	203.09
Change	-0.18  (-0.1%)

The MLP index dropped 3½ to the 362s, to be expected given its fabulous run in recent months.  The REIT index rose 1½ to the 221s, rebounding off yesterday's sell-off.  Junk bond funds slipped, hard to remember the last time they fell back.  Treasuries pulled back, the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond rose 5 basis points to 2.71%, high territory in the last 3 months, ahead of today's auction to sell more bonds.

Treasury Yields:

U.S. 3-month		0.12%
U.S. 2-year		0.43%
U.S. 10-year		2.68%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Oil rose after a gov report showed an unexpected decrease in inventories last week, dropping 3.27M barrels to 364.9M.  Gold fell ahead of unknown outcome of the G-20 meeting.

CLZ10.NYM

...Crude Oil Dec 10

...86.88

...... 0.16

(0.2%)

GCX10.CMX

...Gold Nov 10

.....1,398.40

.... 11.40

(0.8%)

Gold Super Cycle Link! Click Here

Fewer people applied for unemployment aid last week, the 3rd drop in 4 weeks suggesting that the job market is showing signs of life.  If the decline continues, it could signal more hiring.  The Labor Dept said that initial weekly claims dropped 24K to 435K.  The 4-week average fell 10K to 446K, the lowest level for the average since Sep 2008, just before the financial crisis intensified with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.  This is only the 2nd time the 4-week average has fallen below 450K this year.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped 86K to 4.3M, in line with projections.  But continuing claims does not include the number receiving extended benefits under federal programs. Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits & are collecting emergency & extended payments decreased 286K to 4.73M in the latest week.  The news is a little better, but nowhere encouraging enough to make a significant dent in the unemployment rate.

U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week to Lowest Level Since July


Weekly jobless claims - 1 year




# continuing to receive benefits -1 year





World leaders gather in Seoul for the Group of 20 summit, with members disparaging US economic policies they say will weaken the dollar & stoke hot-money flows. The Federal Reserve (FED) decision lto pump $600B into the US economy has stolen the spotlight away from China’s currency. Member countries are worried today that the FED move may inflate commodities prices & are discussing not using the dollar as the main reserve currency for trade. G-20 unity displayed during the financial crisis has given way to national divisions as members chart their own recovery path.  China, the world’s biggest holder of foreign exchange, yesterday took steps to stem capital inflows that threaten to drive up stock & property prices & today raised bank reserve requirements. South Korea may revive a 14% tax on domestic Treasury & central bank bonds held by foreigners early next year to curb foreign-exchange volatility.  This discord is raising nervousness in stock markets.

G-20 Unity Born in Crisis Fractures as Leaders Pursue Own Ends

Photo:  Bloomberg

Macy's (M) had a better-than-expected quarterly profit as efforts to cater to local tastes & an uptick in spending at its upscale Bloomingdale's boosted sales.  M also credited its exclusive product lines by top names such as Madonna & Kenneth Cole for differentiating it from rivals to lure shoppers.  CEO Terry Lundgren said the company's performance "bodes well for our business as we enter the holiday selling season."  Sales rose 6.6% to $5.62B during Q3, beating forecasts of $5.56B. Same store sales rose 3.9%.  Online sales rose 24% during Q3 & gave same-store sales a 0.8 percentage point lift.  Macy's affirmed its forecast for Q4 same-store sales growth of 3-4%.  M reported EPS of 2¢ per share for Q3 compared to a loss of 8¢ last year.  Excluding one-item items, M had EPS of 8¢ - beating forecasts of 5¢.  Its full-year profit outlook was raised 5¢ to $1.94-1.99 per share, in line with estimates of $1.96.  M stock was down a few pennies.

Macy's Third-Quarter Earnings Beat Estimates as Sales Advance


Macy's   ---   2 years





Today's selling can be chalked up to routine although the favorable jobless numbers should have inspired buyers to return to the markets.  The G-20 meeting is important because cooperation among the countries is absent.  There is also frustration with the US & its efforts to keep interest rates very low which hurts economies in other countries.  But the Dow, up 8% YTD, has a beautiful chart this year.  Of course, MLPs are in their own world soaring to new record highs.  The G-20 meeting will probably be the major driver this week with a negative bias.


Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks

Link to the 2 week Free Trial!!  

Click Here

Find out what's inside Trend !!  

Click Here

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  

Click Here

After zigzag trading, stocks close strong

Dow spent most of the day marginally in the black but buyers returned in the last hour of trading. Dow rose 47, advancers over decliners 4-3 while NAZ gained 11 (also with a strong finish). Bank stocks have been quietly sneaking up in the last few weeks. The Financial Index has risen 10+ off its lows last month.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 200.65

Change 1.82

% Change 0.9%

MLPs saw selling today, the index dropped 1 to the 295s, after barely reaching a new 2010 high of 300.40 yesterday. Again buying in the last hour limited its loss. The Dow Jones REIT Index rose 1 to 183 helped a by favorable report on Feb retail sales. Junk bond funds edged higher while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 2 basis points to 3.61%.


Alerian MLP Index --- 3 months



Dow Jones REIT Index --- 3 months

Oil was lower but managed to hold above 80. While in a sideways trading zone, gold still has following winds behind it.

CLJ10.NYM

..Crude Oil Apr 10

..80.29

.. 0.58 ......(0.7%)

GCH10.CMX

..Gold Mar 10

..1,132.60

.. 10.10 ......(0.9%)

Gold Super Cycle!! Click Here

Greece raised badly needed money to avoid a disastrous debt default & dig out of a financial crisis that has shaken the European Union. The 5-year bond was 3 times oversubscribed, with €15B ($20.5B) in offers received. The Greek gov took €5B ($6.8B) of the issue, offering a 6.3% yield. But the steep yield, compared to benchmark German bonds of equivalent maturity, stressed the need for Greece to accelerate its reform plans, "to restore market confidence and exit the crisis." The sale, most of which was absorbed by international institutional investors, reflects on Greece's ability to raise money to pay off expiring bonds & avoid the risk of default.

•Greece's $6.8 Billion in 10-Year Bonds Advance in `Gray Market' Trading

Photo: Bloomberg

Shoppers shrugged off snow & worries about the economy to buy full-price spring clothing & other items at malls, resulting in the strongest retail sales gain since Nov 2007, a month before the recession started. A broad array of merchants, from luxury retailer Nordstrom (JWN) to midbrow Macy's (M) to discounter Target (TGT & a Discount Aristocrat), reported better-than-expected solid sales increases beating estimates. The overall 3.7% gain in Feb, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers's (ICSC) index of 31 merchants, came in the face of a decline in consumer confidence, high joblessness & tight credit. It marked the 3rd consecutive monthly sales increase for retailers, according to the ICSC. JWN & TGT gained will M fell 15¢

•U.S. Retail Sales Jump the Most in Two Years as Shoppers Defy Snowstorms


Nordstrom --- 2 years




Macys --- 2 years




Target --- 2 years

Find out what's inside Trend TV! Click Here

This was another day with mixed economic messages. Feb retail sales were good but jobless claims were so-so & the pending new home sales was the usual dreary report for housing. At this time of the month, everybody is waiting for the jobs report. Meanwhile, after its fall in Jan (earnings season), Dow & NAZ have not been able to recover to new highs. Bulls are hoping tomorrow's report will bring buyers back so new 2010 highs can be reached.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 3 months




Nasdaq --- 3 months