Showing posts with label credit cards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label credit cards. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Markets rise on hopes for more help from central banks

Dow rose 48, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ was up 25.  The Financial Index rose 1 to the 201s, a 3 month high but 14 below its yearly high.  The MLP index fell a fraction in the 391s after pretty much trading sideways for more than a month & the REIT fell 3 to the 265s.  Junk bond funds edged higher but Treasuries sold off.  Oil rose above $94 per barrel for the first time since May, buoyed by hopes for economic stimulus & on worries about supply disruptions.  Gold hardly budged.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.101%

U.S. 2-year

0.260%

U.S. 10-year

1.630%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12...93.90 ...Up 1.70  (1.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Americans cut back on credit card use in Jun, more evidence that high unemployment & slow growth has made consumers more cautious about spending.  Overall consumer borrowing rose because of increases in auto & student loans.  The Federal Reserve said total borrowing increased 3% to $2.58T in Jun from May, just below the all-time high reached in Jul 2008.  Credit card debt fell 5% to $864.6B.  A category of borrowing that includes auto & student loans increased 7% to $1.71T.  Americans have been relying less on credit cards since the 2008 financial crisis & recession that followed.  But much of that has been offset by a dramatic increase in student loans.

US consumers cut back on credit card use in June AP


German Factory Orders Fell Twice as Much as Forecast in June

Photo:   Bloomberg

In Jun, German factory orders declined more than twice as much as forecasted as sales to euro-area countries slumped.  Orders dropped 1.7% from May, when they rose 0.7% according to the Economy Ministry in Berlin.  The forecast was for a decline of 0.8%.  From a year earlier, orders fell 7.8% (after adjusting for work days).  This is the latest report showing that Europe's largest economy is cooling as the sovereign debt crisis erodes demand for its goods, hurting its companies.  While the Bundesbank last month estimated moderate growth in Q2, aided by domestic spending, the manufacturing industry is contracting & business confidence fell for a 3rd straight month in Jul.  Orders from the euro region sank 4.9% in Jun after jumping 7.8% in May.  Domestic orders fell 2.1%, while demand from non-euro nations rose 0.6%.  The economy ministry said overall orders in Q2 “slightly” exceeded those in Q1, there is currently no clear trend.  Rising wages & unemployment at a 2-decade low are supporting domestic spending, helping to offset waning export demand.  The Bundesbank in Jun predicted German growth of just 1% this year.  By contrast, the European Commission forecasts a 0.3% contraction for the 17-nation euro economy as a whole.  With the global economy cooling & the debt crisis hurting spending in the euro region, German companies are feeling the pinch.

June Factory Orders Fell Twice as Much as Forecast as Crisis Hits Output


Freddie Mac said a strengthening housing market means it will not add to the debt it owes US taxpayers for the first time in a year.  Net income of $3B in Q2 (after a div payment to the Treasury of $1.8B) will allow the company to avoid additional help for now.  Provisions for credit losses fell as the housing market improved.  The company also did not require aid during the last 3 qtrs in 2009.  Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac have taken almost $190B in assistance from the Treasury since they went into conservatorship after investments in risky loans pushed them to the brink of insolvency.  This is also a sign of a housing market that is mending, but slowly.

Freddie Mac Won’t Seek Treasury Aid for First Time Since 2008


Markets have following winds bringing higher stock prices.  The news is really not all that good, but a lack of bad news is encouraging the risk appetite of investors.  One key measure is the € which was little changed today, but at $1.24 is up a good 3 pennies from where it was just 2 weeks ago.  Hopes are riding high that more bond buying in Europe will solve problems.  Dow is doing well, but is still 250 below its 2012 highs.  NAZ closed above 3K & the S&P 500 went back above 1400, an important technical indicator.  The S&P chart for the last 6 months is included below.

S&P 500


stock chart

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart






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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Stocks flounder trying to digest bailouts

Stocks started higher trying to reverse the 3 day decline. Buyers gave up after the first hour, markets are only slightly higher. Advancers beat decliners by 25%. S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX is flat at its multi year low of 106. MLPs, REITs & junk bonds are inching up, a meager recovery.


News for credit cards companies is terrible. They expect this will be their worst year as measured by defaults. The previous record rate for defaults was about 7½%, this year that rate is expected to shoot up to 10-11%. The effects of this massive recession bleed into every area of the economy.

Bank of America, American Express May Suffer as Card Defaults Set Record


Last week, 627K workers filed unemployment claims, the 4 week average, less volatile, was 619K, another staggering number. Both figures were worse than expected. A record number, almost 5M, are receiving unemployment checks. An additional 1½M are receiving benefits under an extended unemployment compensation program approved by Congress last year. This brings the total number receiving unemployment benefits to 6½M last week. The Federal Reserve expects unemployment to keep rising for the rest of 2009.

Adding to this grief, wholesale prices jumped 0.8% last month, above the 0.2% increase that was expected. Without food & energy, wholesale prices rose 0.4%, again bigger than expected.



The Gates Foundation, run by Bill & Melissa Gates, is taking the advice of friend Warren Buffet & investing in quality stocks during these troubled times. Some of their blue chip holdings are: Caterpillar (CAT), McDonald's (MCD), Costco (COST), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Waste Management (WMI), Coca Cola (KO) & Exxon Mobil (XOM).



Speaking of Warren Buffet, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has taken a nasty tumble after the financial crisis began last year:


Berkshire Hathaway --- 10 years




With one whopper bailout package after another, markets are not taking this news well. Make it up as we go along, now involving $Ts, is alarming many potential buyers. Averages continue to hover near recent lows, a very bearish sign.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Stocks tumble on Lehman worries

Stocks tumbled on worries that Lehman (LEH) was in trouble which might require borrowing from the FED. These are just rumors, but that's good enough to cause a sell-off late in the day. Dow was down 100 (down 235 in 2 days), decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was down 11. Lehman, down 3.22, got the major attention late in the day with major worries about their financial health. If worries play out in the ugliest fashion, this could be another Bear Stearns situation requiring FED help to prop up the markets. Another new credit crunch worry is about credit cards. There is nervousness that aggressive use of credit cards will lead to more credit crunch problems down the road. Consumers are borrowing more while delinquencies are on the rise. MasterCard (MA) was down 12.60, but VISA (V) took the worries better, up 1.49. Meanwhile oil dropped 3.45 to 124.31. The FED's prediction what there will be no more rate cuts this year caused the dollar to rise against other currencies, a negative for oil. Energies were weak & even MLPs, recently strong, pulled back a point to 294.

Tough times will be continued in tomorrow's markets!