Showing posts with label job cuts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label job cuts. Show all posts

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Markets on fire after ECB bond buying program announced

Dow surged 244 (closing near its highs), advancers over decliners less than 4-1 (moderate given this rally) & NAZ jumped 66.  The Financial Index shot up 5 to the 208s, a 5 month high.  The MLP index was down pennies to 396 while the REIT index rose 2+ to 270 (within spitting distance of its yearly high).  Junk bond funds slid a little & Treasuries sold off while stocks rallied.  Oil was little changed as the ECB discussed a plan involving unlimited purchases of gov debt to ease the region’s debt crisis.  Gold rose to 6-month highs after the ECB offered enough detail of its proposed bond-buying program to protect the € from a deep sell-off.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.101%

U.S. 2-year

0.258%

U.S. 10-year

1.674%

CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1295.48 Up 0.12 (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




ISM Services Gauge in U.S. Rose to 53.7 in August From 52.6

Photo:   Bloomberg

The pace of growth in the massive services sector rose in Aug on the back of a rebound in employment, beating expectations, though a measure of new orders declined.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its services index jumped to 53.7 last month from 52.6 in Jul, beating the forecast for a 52.5 reading.  A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.  The ISM gauge of employment reached its highest level since Apr, climbing to 53.8 from a Jul reading of 49.3 (the lowest level in nearly a year).  However, forward-looking new orders dipped in Aug to 53.7 from 54.3 in Jul.  The ISM report was the 3rd piece of economic data today, following ADP & Challenger reports on employment, that suggested the struggling US job market may have gained some traction last month.  ISM's measure of exports rose to 52 from 51, while imports advanced to 49.5 from 44.5.  The prices paid index for Aug reached its highest level since Feb.  ISM's measure of services follows a downbeat ISM report on Tues that showed US manufacturing shrank at its sharpest clip in more than 3 years.

Services in U.S. Expanded More Than Forecast in August


Amazon Upgrades Kindle Fire as Competitors Enter Tablet Market

Photo:   Bloomberg

Amazon is updating its Kindle Fire tablet computer as it steps up competition with the iPad & refreshing its whole line of Kindle gadgets.  The basic model will cost $159, down from $199 for the old model & start shipping in a week.  It's also coming with high-end versions, including ones with a screen nearly as big as the iPad.  AMZN also refreshed its line of stand-alone e-readers.  Called Paperwhite, the new e-reader model has a black-and-white screen.  The Kindle Fire is an effort to take a larger share of a tablet computer market dominated by the iPad.  AMZN has been selling lower-priced tablets at thin, if any, profit margins to boost sales of digital items from its online store.  The stock rose $5 (on a great day for the stock market) to within inches of its record high.

Amazon (AMZN)


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US employers laid off 32K workers last month, the fewest number of job cuts since Dec 2010, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.  Job cuts have now declined for 3 consecutive months, but it may be too soon to declare a trend in the labor market, says John Challenger, CEO.  "Often layoffs slow down during the summer," Challenger said.  "We did see heavy layoffs in Europe last month...it may be a hint that some conditions could wash ashore. But this is good news no matter how you cut."  Challenger says the 3-month decline could either be evidence of an improving job market or a slowdown in activity.  The majority of job cuts come in Q4, he notes, & the "light" number of layoffs show that CEOs are "standing pat" about hiring until after the outcome of the presidential election.  Employers have announced more than 353K job cuts since the beginning of the year, a drop of 3%.  But job cuts were 15% higher in the first half of this year compared to the same point in 2011.  Challenger's firm also monitors layoffs of US workers by overseas companies.  Both Sharp & Research in Motion (RIMM) have announced plans to cut 5K jobs & Sony (SNE) recently let go of 10K employees.  Downsizing by foreign companies over the past few months could lead to large-scale job cuts at home, Challenger says.  Moderately good news on the jobs front.

U.S. Job Cuts Hit 20-Month Low but Layoffs Heavy Overseas


First things first, the jobs news was generally favorable ahead of the big jobs report tomorrow before the markets open.  The jobs report should be decent although the details will better define what it really means.  The bond buying program by ECB is more iffy.  Markets responded by approving.  Solving today's problems today is important, tomorrow will take care of itself.  But nobody knows how successful it will be.  There have been programs before & the euro debt mess is still with us.  Next week the FOMC has its big meeting & today's good news may put intervention thoughts on hold.  Dow will need another 100 gain to reach the high in its 7 month trading range.  Breadth was weak & gold (contrary bets) was strong.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Higher markets on hopes for a QE3

Dow shot up 202, advancers over decliners 8-1 & NAZ added 37.  Bank stocks led the way as the Financial Index was able to recover much of the lost ground from the last 2 days.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 178.01 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change     5.05   (2.9%)

The MLP index went up 2+ the 368s & the REIT index gained 5+ to the 229s.  Junk bond fudns edged higher while Treasuries fell with the rising stock market.  Oil pared gains after the US Energy Dept said stockpiles advanced 1.83M barrels last week.  Gold is also participating in today's rally.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.226%

U.S. 10-year

2.040%

CLZ11.NYM....Crude Oil Dec 11...93.42 ....Up 1.23  (1.3%)

GCX11.CMX...Gold Nov 11.....1,737.80 ...Up 26.80  (1.6%)


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  • <p>Eric Holland writes his personal information on a sign-up sheet at the Office Depot booth during a job fair at Tellabs in Naperville, Illinois October 27, 2011. REUTERS/Frank Polich</p>
Photo:   Yahoo

US private employers added more jobs than expected in Oct, while planned layoffs dropped sharply.  The ADP National Employment Report showed the private sector added 110K jobs, topping expectations for a gain of 101K jobs.  ADP also increased Sep job additions, to a gain of 116K from the previously reported 91K.  While the data was encouraging, it still points to a sluggish recovery rather than robust growth.  ADP figures come ahead of the gov much more comprehensive jobs report on Fri, which includes public & private sector employment.  That report is expected to show a rise in nonfarm payrolls of 95K last month & a rise in private payrolls of 120K while the unemployment rate holds steady at 9.1%.  This is another report showing that the economy is getting by but not expanding like it should in a recovery from a recession.

U.S. Companies Add More-Than-Expected 110,000 Workers in October, ADP Says


Job cuts announced by US employers increased in Oct from Oct 2010 as dismissals remain a hurdle to faster economic growth.  Planned layoffs rose 13% to 43K from 38K last year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.  Gov agencies & financial companies have cut the most jobs this year. “We have yet to see the full impact of mandated federal spending cuts,” John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said.  “Meanwhile, the European debt crisis is wreaking havoc on Wall Street.”  Budgetary constraints have induced a wave of gov reductions as financial firms trim headcounts, creating an impediment for American employment prospects.  Compared with Sep, which saw the most layoffs since Apr 2009, job-cut announcements decreased 63%.  Consumer products companies led the Oct job cuts with 7K announced reductions followed by retail companies with 4K planned cuts.  More inconclusive news about an economy that is just getting by.

Announced U.S. Job Cuts Rose 13% From Year Ago, Challenger Says


MasterCard Profit Climbs 38% as Card Spending Increases

Photo:   Bloomberg

MasterCard reported sharply higher Q3 profits, easily beating estimates on double-digit increases in volumes.  The CEO said that consumers were still spending despite economic uncertainty, though growth comparisons will start to get harder from this month.  The company has increased efforts to get US. business from Visa (V), just as Visa is expanding its intl business.  EPS was $5.63, up from $3.94 last year.  Revenue rose more than 27% to $1.8B.  Estimates were for EPS of $4.82 & was the biggest earnings beat in the last 2 years.  MA gross dollar volume rose 18.1%, while transactions processed rose 20.5%.  For the rest of the year, MA said its outlook is consistent with the guidance it gave in Sep & it also maintained its long-term targets.  The stock rose $26 to a new record.

Mastercard Incorporated (MA)


stock chart


The economic news is not there to justify the big rise today.  But hopes are riding high that the Federal Reserve will announce a QE3 program later today.  Sounds good, but I don't think so.  If its does, not sure what is supposed to accomplish other than bring out buyers for stocks.  It would not make any difference in resolving the Greek debt mess & nobody knows where that will lead.  The US economy has only a limited recovery, not enough to reduce high unemployment.  The jobs report is coming on Fri & that is not expected to be encouraging.  If Ben doesn't have any magic tricks, the markets will sell off later today.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Markets edge higher, extending yesterday's gains

Stocks began the day climbing, taking the Dow above its previous yearly closing low in Aug.  Dow is up 41, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ was up 25.  Banks slipped, taking the Financial Index down 1 to 157 after yesterday's spectacular gain.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 332s, still at a weak level, while the REIT index fell 5 to 197.  Junk bond funds are recovering after a bad day yesterday & Treasuries are selling off on strength in the stock market.  Oil extended its gains after the Energy Dept reported an unexpected decline in inventories.  Gold continues to mark time in the low 1600s.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)




Get the latest market update below:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.255%

U.S. 10-year

1.884%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...77.84 ...Up 2.17  (2.9%)

GCV11.CMX...Gold Oct 11......1,616.20 ...Up 1.50  (0.1%)


Service Industries in U.S. Expanded at Slower Pace

Photo:   Bloomberg

Service firms (employing 90% of the US work force) expanded at a slightly slower pace in Sep than in Aug.  Meager pay increases & higher costs for food & gas have forced Americans to spend carefully. The decline in spending is hurting the service industry, which covers a range of businesses from hotels & restaurants to financial firms & retailers.  The Institute for Supply Management said that its service sector index dipped to 53 from 53.3 in Aug (a reading above 50 indicates expansion).  The index reached a 5-year high of 59.7 in Feb but has weakened consistently since.  In Jul, it fell to its lowest point level in 17 months.  Ben Bernanke said that the economic recovery "is close to faltering."  He said the economy is growing more slowly than the Federal Reserve had expected and that the biggest factor depressing consumer confidence is poor job growth.


Greeks Strike Against Papandreou Job Cuts

Photo:   Bloomberg

Greek civil servants walked off the job, paralyzing the gov & public transport to protest ever-deeper austerity measures & seemingly ineffectual financial policies.  At least 16K protesters converged in central Athens, & another 10K gathered in the northern city of Thessaloniki, to protest cuts.  The vast majority of demonstrators were peaceful, but a few dozen threw stones at riot police.  Air traffic controllers joined the 24-hour strike, grounding all flights to & from Greek airports.  State hospitals were running on emergency staff, while lawyers, teachers & tax officers also didn't work.  Public transport employees were holding work stoppages.  State television & radio pulled news programs off the air.  Civil servants are protesting plans to suspend about 30K staff on partial pay, part of new cutbacks that come on top of salary & pension cuts.  There also have been waves of tax hikes over the past year and a half.  The Greek rescue plan is far from over!

Greeks Strike Against Job Cuts as Aid Delayed


In Sep US employers announced the most job cuts in more than 2 years, led by planned reductions at Bank of America (BAC), a Dow stock, & in the military.  Announced layoffs tripled, the largest increase since Jan 2009, to 115K last month from 37K in Sep 2010, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.  Cuts in gov employment, led by the Army’s 5-year troop reduction plan, & at BAC accounted for almost 70% of the announcements.  While the bulk of firings are not “directly related” to economic weakness, they “could definitely be a sign of more cuts to come,” John A. Challenger, CEO said. “Bank of America is not the only bank still struggling in the wake of the housing collapse, and the military cutbacks are probably just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to federal spending cuts.”  Today’s report also showed that employers announced plans in Sep to hire 76K workers, up from 15K in the prior month, but down from 123K in Sep 2010.  Retailers led the gains, planning to add 70K positions ahead of the holidays. The job picture remains bleak.

Announced Job Cuts in U.S. More Than Triple From Year Ago, Challenger Says


Stocks are looking for direction again.  It's hard not to think Dow's 350 rise in the last hour yesterday was suspicious.  Greece is expected to get the next installment of aid, but its problems are far from over when there are constant protests over austerity measures.  Also banking problems have not gone away, especially for US banks.  If the bulls can take the markets higher today, that will be a good sign.  For the moment, that is iffy.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


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Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Higher markets on stimulus hopes

Dow rose 75 (but 75 off the earlier highs), advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ wa up 20.  Bank stocks continue to benefit from the Warren Buffett rally as the Financial Index is up more than 10% in the last 9 days.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 192.92 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    2.25     (1.3%)

The MLP index jumped 4 to the 356s & the REIT index rose 1½ to the 228s.  Junk bond funds were typically up 1+% in what has been a tough month for them.  Treasuries were little changed as were oil & gold.  But oil is headed for its biggest monthly drop since May, as signs of swelling inventories & faltering demand countered speculation the US will take further steps to bolster its economy.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.020%

U.S. 2-year

0.211%

U.S. 10-year

2.208%

CLV11.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 11...88.95 ...Up 0.05  (0.1%)

GCU11.CMX...Gold Sep 11.....1,826.90 ...Up 0.20  (0.0%)



Get the latest daily market update below:







Photo:   Yahoo

The pace of US private sector job growth slowed in Aug for the 2nd month in a row with employers adding just 91K positions according to the ADP National Employment Report.  The Jul figure was revised down to an increase of 109K from 114K & the Aug gain was the smallest since a disappointingly small 35K in May.  This report gets only mixed grades in forecasting the more important jobs data reported 2 days later.  That Aug jobs report is expected to show a rise in nonfarm payrolls of 75K & a rise in private payrolls of 105K.  Gov payrolls are expected to shrink for the 9th month in a row, but the decline may not be as steep as in the past 3 months since 23K state workers in Minnesota returned after a partial shutdown. 


Employers announced more job cuts in Aug than last year.  Planned layoffs climbed 47% from Aug 2010 to 51K according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Reductions were led at gov agencies & in the financial industry.  “The private sector once again took a backseat to the government sector, which saw job cuts surge to the second- highest monthly total this year,” John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said. “More workforce reductions at the federal level are undoubtedly coming down the road. Congress and the White House are under immense pressure to cut federal budgets.”  Compared with Jul, job-cuts decreased 23% but the figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects. Gov agencies led the layoffs with 18K job-cut announcements, followed by 8K in finance & 6K in the retail industry.  Big picture, the employment front is not improving.

Announced U.S. Job Cuts Rose 47% in August From Year Ago, Challenger Says


US factory orders rose strongly in Jul on the biggest jump in demand for autos in more than 8 years & a surge in commercial airplane orders, suggesting supply chain disruptions created by the Japan crisis are easing.  The Commerce Dept said factory orders climbed 2.4%, the largest increase since Mar.  Orders for motor vehicles & parts rose 9.8%, the largest gain since 2003.  The increase follows a decline of 0.4% in Jun.  This good news is probably more timing related, catch up orders are not a sign of ongoing business.

Orders to U.S. Factories Rose 2.4% in July on Demand for Autos, Aircraft


U.S. Auto Sales May Have Stalled in August

Photo:   Bloomberg

US auto sales failed to rebound in Aug as confidence sank & prospects dimmed for faster economic growth.  Aug vehicle sales (to be released tomorrow) may have run at a 12.1M annual rate, below the pace 12.5M in H1 before slowing to a 12.2M pace last month. The Aug 2010 rate was 11.5M.  Tempered projections for output & job gains caused forecasts for annual sales to be trimmed 900K for this year & next.  Prepare for dreary numbers tomorrow.

U.S. Auto Sales May Have Stalled in Augus


This is a quiet week when small amounts of buying or selling can produce fairly big swings.  Some said the rise in factory orders was good news, ignoring that it could be more timing related.  Bulls are happy, they always like to see rising markets (especially after what has been a rough month for stocks).  With the Fri jobs report looming, chances are not a lot will be decided until then.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


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