Showing posts with label oil production. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil production. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Markets decline on lower home resales

Dow fell 42, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was even.  The Financial Index fell 1 to 213, profit taking after its 38 rise this year.

The MLP index slipped a fraction to 400 & the REIT index remained flat in the 252s (just below its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries rose, pushing 10-year note yields down for a 2nd straight day, as the central bank prepared to buy up to $4.25B of gov debt.  Oil rose after the Energy Dept said stockpiles unexpectedly fell 1.16M barrels last week to 346M.  Gold found buyers at these levels.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.092%

U.S. 2-year

0.371%

U.S. 10-year

2.312%

CLK12.NYM....Crude Oil May 12...106.36 .....Up 0.29  (0.3%)

GCH12.CMX...Gold Mar 12........1,659.40 ...Up 12.70  (0.8%)




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Sales of previously occupied homes dipped last month but the sales pace for the winter was the best in 5 years.  The National Association of Realtors said that home sales fell 0.9% last month to an annual rate of 4.59M, down from a revised 4.63M in Jan (the highest since May 2010).  A mild winter & a stronger job market have helped boost sales ahead of the all-important spring buying season.  Even with the gains, sales remain below the 6M rate that is equated with healthy markets & the makeup of those sales still signals a troubled market.  Sales among first-time buyers, critical to a housing recovery, fell slightly to 32% of all purchases, down from 33% in Jan.  In healthy markets, first-time buyers make up at least 40%.  Homes at risk of foreclosure made up 34% of sales, down from 35% in Jan.  In more stable markets, foreclosures make up less than 10% of sales.  For the past few years, the market has been saturated, putting downward pressure on prices.  

Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Declined in February


Greece's coalition gov named Philippos Sachinidis to be the new finance minister while anti-austerity protests continued (ahead of the expected general election).  Sachinidis was promoted from deputy finance minister after serving for 2 years as the head of a Greece's drive to cut public spending.  He replaced Evangelos Venizelos, who quit after being elected to head the majority Socialist party.  The gov is expected to call general elections for late Apr or early May after successfully negotiating bailout II & a debt restructuring with banks & other private bond holders.  Greek lawmakers just approved the new bailout deal, which will see Greece receive €172B ($227B) in rescue loans over the next few years.  The amount includes a 2nd, €130B ($172B) package as well as the undisbursed portion of a first, €110B ($145B) bailout & funds from the IMF.  In exchange for the additional support, Greece agreed to impose harsh austerity measures during a 5th year of recession, slashing the minimum wage, pension & benefits (including deep cuts in the health service).  State hospital services faced disruptions as staff held work stoppages & protests over austerity measures & pay delays.  As I said months ago, the debt mess drones on.

Greece names new finance chief, strikes continue AP


Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi

Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi
Photo:   Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia can increase crude production by as much as 25% immediately if needed, according to the country’s oil minister, seeking to ease the concern over supplies that has driven prices to the highest in 3 years.  Brent crude has gained 15% in London this year to $124 a barrel after Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for 20% of the world’s oil.  “If you believe Hormuz will be closed, I will sell you the Empire State or the Egyptian pyramids,” oil minister Ali al-Naimi said.  “I want to assure you that there is no shortage of supply in the market. OPEC is supplying what it needs, we have capacity, additional reserves of 2.5 million barrels” a day.  Saudi Arabia has increased production to 10M barrels a day in Nov, the highest in 3 decades.  The world’s biggest crude exporter, has the capacity to produce 12.5M barrels a day & will pump about 9.9M barrels a day in Mar & April, al-Naimi said.  The global market is oversupplied by as much as 2M barrels a day & inventories are rising, he said.  This may bring a sense of calm to oil traders.

Saudi Arabia Can Increase Oil Output 25% If Needed, Minister Naimi Says


Stocks continue to just bumble along.  This is shaping up as the 3rd down day this week, but the cumulative loss for the Dow is only 100.  As long as Dow holds above 13K, bulls remain in charge.  However, the European recession, slowdown in China & higher gas prices are keeping the bulls from charging forward.  Even at these levels, Dow has risen almost 3K from the lows 6 months ago.

Dow Industrials


stock chart








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Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Morning stock market gains lost after late day selling

Oversold markets had a bounce in the AM, but buyers gave up at midday.  Dow ended falling 19, advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ slipped 1.  Bank stocks lost their early gains, giving the Financial Index another down day.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value200.14One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -0.39     (-0.2%)


MLPs continue to slip & slide with the index heading back to the 350 floor, but the Dow Jones REIT Index rose 3+ to 241s (although it lost some steam in the last hour).  A report said junk bond funds have sold off in recent days, but ones I follow have been flattish to inching higher (as they did today).   The Treasury had a successful $32B auction of 3 year notes today, reducing AM losses with the benchmark 10 year Treasury yield hovering near 3%.  Oil was higher in late day trading despite talk of higher production quotas from OPEC.  Gold fell from a 5-week high as European debt concerns eased, but strength in the PM kept it close to its $1345 highs.

ALERIAN MLP INDEX


Value355.90One-Year Chart for ALERIAN MLP INDEX (AMZ:IND)
Change   -1.31    (-0.4%)


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.036%

U.S. 2-year

0.409%

U.S. 10-year

3.008%

CLN11.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 11...99.62 ...Up 0.61  (0.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]


Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve is supporting a proposal at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision that calls for a maximum capital surcharge of 3 percentage points on the largest global banks.  Intl central bankers & supervisors meeting in Basel, Switzerland, have decided that banks need to hold more capital to avoid future taxpayer-funded bailouts.  Some fear this will leave the door open to surcharges of as much as 7 percentage points.  Basel regulators agreed last year to raise the minimum common equity requirement for banks to 4.5% from 2%, with an added buffer of 2.5% for a total of 7% of assets weighted for risk.  Basel members are also proposing that global important financial institutions hold an additional capital buffer equivalent to as much as 3 percentage points.  Banks do not want to see these rules implemented because it will force them to raise substantial amounts of capital by selling more shares, harming current shareholders.  This threat is part of the reason the Financial Index has done so badly in 2011.

Fed to Back 3 Percentage-Point Bank Surcharge


Americans consumers borrowed more money in Apr for the 6th straight month while cutting back on using credit cards.  The Federal Reserve (FED) says consumer borrowing rose by nearly $7.2B, fueled by greater demand for school & auto loans. But a category that measures credit card use fell for the 2nd time in 3 months & has risen only twice in 3 years.  High unemployment, steep gas prices & a weak housing market have forced people to resist paying with plastic.  The report includes auto loans, student loans & credit cards, but excludes mortgages & loans tied to real estate. The FED will give a more complete picture of debt on Thurs when it issues its quarterly report on household net worth.

Consumers borrowed more for 7th straight month AP


OPEC plans to raise its oil production quota for the first time in several years & it will be announced tomorrow at the Vienna meeting.  The amount is still under discussion although it is believed to call for an increase of 1-1½M barrels a day.  Currently, OPEC's quota is for 24.8M (some speculate that actual production is more than 26M).  This compares with world production of roughly 88M.


The price of gas at the pump remains near $3.80, still harmful to the economy.

National Unleaded Average
RegularMidPremiumDiesel85**E85
MPG/BTU
adjusted
price
Current Avg.$3.761$3.909$4.037$3.996$3.226$4.245
Yesterday Avg.$3.771$3.916$4.043$3.998$3.242$4.267
Week Ago Avg. $3.780$3.923$4.049$4.012$3.231$4.251
Month Ago Avg. $3.966$4.110$4.236$4.159$3.339$4.395
Year Ago Avg. $2.724$2.893$2.997$2.986$2.200$2.895

Source:   AAA


The bulls did not come out in force & then gave up.  Stock markets look bad, no way around it.  MLPs have lost their fizz from the last 2 years. While stock markets are trying to find their way, gold is within striking distance of setting new record highs.  That's the kind of action expected when stock markets fall.  Selling picked up in late day trading when Dow fell 110 in the last 2 hours & is down 740 from its highs at the start of May.   

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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